Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 17

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2025-12-27 05:50:43 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for Week 17, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming featured slate.

Welcome back to the second-to-last regular season edition of the Key Personnel!

It’s sad that we only have two more main slates this season, but everyone should be excited for some playoff football. Week 16 was a good one, but it feels like it was a month ago. Since then, we’ve had Showdown slates, a Christmas slate, and a Saturday slate. I don’t remember too many specifics from Week 16 other than Chris Olave carrying my main tournament team across the finish line. This has been my best season of NFL DFS in the last 10 years, so let’s try to finish strong.

We always roll with a retired athlete to dedicate each season of the week to, but this week we’re going with a retired athlete who recently unretired. For Week 17, we have to call it the Philip Rivers week. After Carson Wentz and Anthony Richardson went down with injuries, the Colts somehow talked Rivers out of retirement. Very few gave him any chance of being remotely competitive after being out of the game for so long, but the 44-year-old has held his own in his first two starts in nearly 5 years. It would be awesome to see him pick up a win, although I’m selfishly hoping it doesn’t come this week against my Jaguars.

Here are a couple of my favorite quotes from #17:

“At the end of the day, wins matter — but how you treat people matters more.”

“Pressure is something you feel when you don’t know what the hell you’re doing.”

Cheers to Philip Rivers week, let’s dive into the slate!

NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 17

I’m not going to sugarcoat this — Week 17 might be the ugliest main slate that we’ve had all season. There are only 9 games on the schedule because of the Thursday and Saturday slates, and many of the teams on the main slate have nothing to play for. The good news is that everyone is working with the same player pool. This is a week to embrace the ugliness.

Top Quarterback Plays

Tier 1 – Core Plays

Drake Maye ($6,800 DK / $8,400 FD) and the Patriots can wrap up the AFC East with two wins against the Jets and Dolphins. With plenty of motivation, we can feel good about targeting Maye in both cash games and tournaments. He has scored over 20 fantasy points in 9 of 15 games this season and draws a nice matchup against the Jets, who are 29th in EPA allowed per dropback. The Patriots have a massive team total (27.5 points), so Maye should have one of the highest floors on the slate.

Joe Burrow ($6,500 DK / $8,700 FD) and the Bengals have nothing to play for, but that didn’t stop them from dropping 45 points on the Dolphins last week. Burrow completed 25-of-32 passes for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has an obvious stacking mate in JaMarr Chase and an exploitable matchup against the Cardinals, who are 25th in EPA allowed per dropback. This game has serious shootout potential, as the Bengals have a team total of 30 points.

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

Trevor Lawrence ($6,100 DK / $8,000 FD) is projected to be the highest-owned quarterback of the slate. It’s easy to understand why, as he has scored at least 19 fantasy points in 5 straight games and has put up nearly 80 fantasy points in the last 2 games combined. However, I’m still hesitant to trust him as my favorite quarterback on a main slate, especially at this ownership. The matchup looks nice on paper, as the Colts are 20th in EPA allowed per dropback and 18th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

The Giants and Raiders have nothing to play for, yet this is one of my favorite games on the schedule to target. Jaxson Dart ($5,400 DK / $7,100 FD) struggled mightily against the Vikings last week, but their defense has been firing on all cylinders (just ask the Lions). Dart has rushing upside and draws a nice bounce-back matchup against the Raiders, who are 26th in EPA allowed per dropback this season.

Tier 3 – Sprinkle Plays

Josh Allen ($7,000 DK / $8,800 FD) and the Bills can still win their division. Even if they don’t, they are still battling for the 5th seed in the AFC. With plenty of motivation, he deserves consideration in tournaments this week, especially at low projected ownership. Allen tends to play his best in big games, and a matchup against the Eagles certainly qualifies. If you like hot takes, I think we could be looking at a Super Bowl preview. We should never be surprised when Allen puts up a slate-breaking performance.

I don’t love Geno Smith ($4,400 DK / $6,500 FD) this week, but I do love two of his pass catchers in Tre Tucker and Michael Mayer. With Jakobi Meyers gone and Brock Bowers on injured reserve, Tucker and Mayer project as two of the best values on the slate. If you roll out a Smith double stack, you can essentially do whatever you want with the rest of your lineup. He has a nice matchup at home against the Giants, who are 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

🏈 Quarterbacks – Noto’s Notes

🏆 Core Plays: Drake Maye, Joe Burrow
💪 Strong Plays: Trevor Lawrence, Jaxson Dart
🌧️ Sprinkle Plays: Josh Allen, Geno Smith
% Ownership Angle: Lawrence chalk never feels great, I prefer Maye and Burrow
🔗 Potential Pairings: Maye + Hollins, Burrow + Chase
❤️‍🩹 Injuries to Monitor: N/A

Top Running Back Plays

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