Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 2
A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.
Week 1 went about as expected, which is to say most of what happened was unexpected. It was one of the uglier main slates in recent memory. Outside of the Dolphins, most of the chalk was a bust. And to be fair, most of the plays in general were busts. Scoring and play volume were down across the league, which is hopefully an aberration rather than a trend moving forward. Regardless, it was great to have football back.
I was able to escape Week 1 with a profit. I didn’t cash in a single contest on DraftKings (I played five lineups!) but nearly took down a $555 GPP on FanDuel. Luckily, the DK lobby was as barren as the tight end production was last Sunday, so I took a look at FD’s lobby and found some better contests right before lock. Cooper Kupp and the Bears D/ST carried me to a nice cash. I’ll never complain about a good week, but here’s to hoping for more success on DraftKings in Week 2.
Always remember to be patient when it comes to DFS and betting. The biggest mistake other than contest selection and lineup construction is bankroll management. The natural inclination is to increase your bankroll after a good week. Unfortunately, the natural inclination is also to increase your bankroll after a bad win. You want to win back what you lost. So regardless of how the previous week went, the natural inclination is to play above your means. Don’t fall into this trap. There are 17 more main slates that we have to attack and plenty of showdown slates.
Speaking of being patient, it’s something I have to work very hard on when it comes to parenting. For whatever reason, it’s been a long week on that front. When my son acts out, I feel like a bad parent. So I’ve spent the week being frustrated at him and frustrated at myself. I sat him down and we had a good chat. We both agreed to start from scratch and that we’d both try harder. Perfect, right? Not 10 minutes later he says, “Dad, I’m not to hurt your feelings but…” which is a line that he says whenever he’s going to say something that is going to hurt my feelings. I stopped him in his tracks and said, “You better be careful. Think about what you are going to say and if it’s not nice, don’t say it.”
He looks at me and says, “If you were an animal, you’d be a giraffe because your neck is so long.” Kids are too funny. I couldn’t help but laugh.
Like me as a parent, try to have patience even when it feels impossible. Stick with your process and stick with your weekly bankroll allocation.
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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 2
The goal heading into Week 2 is not to overreact based on what we saw in Week 1. I will mention a lot of usage statistics in this article, which are much more predictive than the raw numbers that you’ll see in the box scores. However, even the underlying usage isn’t going to tell the entire story. Some defenses keyed in on certain players in Week 1. This week’s opponents might have an entirely different game plan. Stick with your priors (what you thought before the season started) and try to avoid the groupthink this week. As always, be sure to check the NFL weather before finalizing your lineups on Sunday.
Quarterback
EXPERT PLAY TAGS
Jayden Daniels: $6,200 DK / $7,900 FD
Kyler Murray: $6,600 DK / $8,000 FD
Jayden Daniels was easily the most productive rookie quarterback in Week 1. You can say what you want about Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontal raid or that he refused to move Terry McLaurin around the formation, but Daniels is set to have a big fantasy season if he can stay healthy. He’s unlikely to have 18 rushing attempts again soon, but we have to love that he’s willing to make plays with his feet when the pocket breaks down. He should only improve as a passer. This week, he draws a home matchup against the Giants, who were torched by Sam Darnold (#1 PFF graded quarterback in Week 1) and the Vikings. We typically like to pair our quarterbacks with a wideout, but we don’t have to force it with Daniels. While this game doesn’t feature a high total, the Commanders have a respectable team total of 23 points.
Kyler Murray didn’t have a huge fantasy outing in Week 1, but he missed Marvin Harrison on a touchdown and added 57 yards on the ground. While I’m not sure I agree with his take that “it’s not his job to get him (Harrison) the ball,” he’s going to be viable each and every week thanks to his rushing upside and the weapons around him. We saw the Rams get into a shootout with the Lions in Week 1, which is something we can expect to happen often this season. Aaron Donald surprisingly retired in the offseason, and the defense has already sustained injuries to key players. Murray gets to face them at home in a game that has the second highest total of the week. The high floor/ceiling combination is tough to pass on at this price point. I really hope the Cardinals’ side of this game gets overlooked.
BEST OF THE REST
Given the fact that I typically build between 4-8 lineups per main slate, I like to keep my quarterback pool tight. Most of my exposure will go to the two quarterbacks above, but there are plenty of options this week. After being more of a dink-and-dunk offense the last couple of seasons, the Chiefs led the NFL in explosive plays (9) in Week 1. The addition of Xavier Worthy gives them a deep threat and opens things up underneath for the other wideouts. Patrick Mahomes had a career-high in rushing yards last year, so he offers more rushing upside than most realize. He draws a decent matchup at home against the Bengals, who forgot how to play football in their Week 1 matchup against the Patriots.
While I don’t mind looking to C.J. Stroud on FanDuel, the rest of my quarterback pool will be value plays. As noted earlier, Darnold had the highest PFF grade of any quarterback in Week 1. Some of that had to do with his opponent (the Giants), but Darnold has always been a capable quarterback, and Kevin O’Connell has always had a great system. A matchup against the Niners is never ideal, but San Francisco is playing on a short week and traveling across the country. Home underdogs have long been a nice spot for passing attacks, so don’t sleep on Darnold and the Vikings this week. With so much interest in the Niners without Christian McCaffrey, Darnold and his wideouts are an easy way to build a full game stack.
The Baker Mayfield story is wild. He was essentially destined to be a backup quarterback before getting a few starts with the Rams late in the season a few years ago. He had a few miraculous throws and was signed by the Buccaneers the next season. He won the quarterback battle in camp, and all of a sudden, his career is back on track. He looked tremendous against the Commanders in Week 1, throwing for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. I love the game environment this week in Detroit because the Buccaneers want to air it out, while their defense is much better equipped to stop the run. We could see a fast paced game with high play volume, which is always great for DFS. Mayfield has two obvious stacking candidates in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Jalen McMillan is worth keeping an eye on, as he ran just as many routes as Evans and Godwin in Week 1.
Don’t you hate when there’s a late week injury that leads to an obvious value play? It seldom works out. Tee Higgins being out didn’t do much for the production of Andrei Iosivas. Additionally, Justin Fields became chalky after Russell Wilson was ruled out. I don’t love the game environment in Denver this week, but Fields is one of the only players in the NFL that’s capable of throwing for 200+ yards and rushing for 100+ yards in the same game. If we ignore the start last week and look strictly at his price point (and past upside), most of us would play him with confidence in Week 2.
Daniel Jones is the ultimate “ignore what you saw in Week 1” type of play. I’ll fall on the sword, as I was high on him entering the week. Perhaps I should have put more stock into the fact that the Vikings’ defense should actually be good under Brian Flores. Or perhaps I should have put more stock into the fact that he throws as many touchdowns to opposing defenses as he does to his teammates. With all of that said, he’s still cheap, he still has rushing upside, and he draws an elite matchup against the Commanders.
Running Back
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