Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 10
Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass multi-entry tournaments in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet the common flaw is that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces (not enough correlation or leverage), or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position by position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 10
STACKS
CHALK — Seahawks vs. Commanders and Bengals vs. Texans
Dallas has the highest implied total on the slate (28.50), but there’s a reasonable consensus that that’s gonna be an embarrassing blowout over the Little Giants. Next, we should mention the Lions at 25.75, who are a fine low-owned stack against a bad pass defense. But will the Lions offense travel? We can play them, but be forewarned that this isn’t the home dome.
Sandwiched between the two are the Bengals at 26.75. Joe Burrow is back and healthy in full effect. The status of Tee Higgins only dangles to decide how much JaMarr Chase is too much JaMarr Chase and whether or not we lock Tyler Boyd in. Cincy is expensive, but they’re balanced out by the cheap price tags on Tank Dell and Noah Brown as run-backs with Nico Collins out.
Chase is averaging nearly 12 targets per game, while Burrow has at least 280 passing yards in three of his last four, with multiple TD passes in four straight.
The Seahawks could be the much chalkier stack though because of salary. The Commanders defense wasn’t very good with Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Without them, this defense is like flamingos playing flag football.
We should love the price tags across the board, but we shouldn’t ignore the reason why the prices are so low on Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, and DK Metcalf: the three haven’t really delivered.
Smith has multiple TDs only twice and 3 TDs exactly zero times. His 7.3 IAY/PA is fine, but his dropback volume is fairly low. So, despite a strong completion percentage, he only has 225.3 passing yards per game. And this all trickles down to the WR production, which is already a committee.
That said, again, the salaries are low, the matchup is great, and the run-backs are good and cheap in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. I would hold my nose and play this stack if the ownership weren’t so high. If I’m gonna spend on ownership, I’ll spend up in salary to the Bengals.
PIVOTS — Texans at Bengals and Cardinals vs. Falcons
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