Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 7
Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass multi-entry tournaments in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet the common flaw is that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces (not enough correlation or leverage), or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position by position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 7
STACKS
CHALK — Chiefs vs. Chargers and Seahawks vs. Cardinals
The Chiefs have a 26.5 implied total, while the Seahawks are at 26.0 for the highest totals on the week, and ownership is reflecting them differently on each site.
On DK, the Seahawks stack is looking like the top-owned team, but Geno Smith will be moderately owned at 12%, as ownership is more spread out on the site. The Chiefs are jumbled in the next tier in the high single-digits for MME.
On FD, Patrick Mahomes is at the top (over 16%) with Lamar Jackson (who we’ll discuss soon) at around 16%. Geno is down around 10%.
The Chiefs should be the best stack on the slate, but they’re not popping off in the optimals because the price tags on Mahomes and Travis Kelce handcuff the rest of our lineups. Without great value on the slate, the Chiefs are a tough sell. And this is coming from someone who stacks the Chiefs somewhere for serious money on every slate.
With that said, the Chargers are one of the worst pass defenses in the league, Mahomes is one of the best QBs of all time, and we don’t have to stack him with a 35%-owned Kelce. We’re allowed to go to Rashee Rice, who doesn’t see much action, but gets the action when he’s out there, leading all Chiefs WRs with 28 targets. We don’t have to go to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who’s just running wind sprints out there when we can go to the team-leading 22.9 aDOT of Justin Watson. He only has 17 targets, but it’s five more than MVS.
The best part of stacking the Chiefs without Kelce is that it allows us to run it back with one of the most dependable target monsters in football: Keenan Allen, who has 55 targets through five games. If we really want Kelce over Allen, Joshua Palmer is a fine pivot off of Allen. I’m probably fading Austin Ekeler at these price tags.
I gain interest in the Chiefs when I look at how uninspiring the rest of the pool is, though, starting with the Seahawks.
Stacking the Seahawks is never fun. I don’t care who the opponent is- it’s hard to ever stack the Seahawks and feel like they can win us a slate. If they score a ton, it’s a Kenneth Walker game. If they keep passing, we want a Cardinals run back (ugh).
On the brighter side for us, DK Metcalf seems like a coin flip to play. If he’s out, the toughest part of playing the Seahawks gets solved — whom to stack with Geno. If Metcalf is out, we just play Tyler Lockett. If Metcalf is in, flip the coin on who to play and don’t pretend that any deep research is gonna give you the answer. If you’re stacking the Seahawks, stack the Seahawks and move onto the rest of your lineup.
Starting with the run back, which should be a fairly easy call in Marquise Brown who is cheap as hell and has seen 11,10, 10, 7, and 10 targets over their last five games. If we really wanna get frisky and save $700 on DK and $400 on FD, we can start Joshua Dobbs at QB against a Seahawks pass defense allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game. This makes sense, as Dobbs can run around a bit and can more than match Geno point-for-point. The Dobbs-Brown-Lockett / Metcalf combo is gonna be virtually unowned in single-entry. We’re talking sub-4%.
Of the very few salary-saving tactics on this slate, Dobbs brings us the highest upside. I just don’t love this game and it’s forming a mental block.
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