Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 8
Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass multi-entry tournaments in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet the common flaw is that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces (not enough correlation or leverage), or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position by position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 8
STACKS
UPSIDE CHALK — Chiefs at Broncos and Ravens at Cardinals
Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are expensive, but there’s more than one way to skin a cat. Rashee Rice is affordable and leads the Chiefs WRs in targets, while Skyy Moore and Marques Valdez-Scantling are simmering and ready to boil over.
The Chiefs are a very close second this week in implied total (27.5) and face a horrid Broncos defense. The great thing about the Chiefs is that they don’t ease their foot off the pedal to coast to victory. When they’ve exploited a defense, they just slide the boot deeper into their opponents’ throats.
Again, Mahomes and Kelce cost a lot of money and they’ll also cost a lot in ownership, but Courtland Sutton will be very low-owned on the other side of this game, while every other Chief is cheap with low ownership. There are ways to stack the Chiefs and bring it back with a Bronco. There are ways to stack the Chiefs and not bring it back with a Bronco.
If we don’t wanna play the Chiefs, Isiah Pacheco is still really cheap and is projecting really well. The reason to not play the Chiefs is the fear that they’re up so big so early that they do deflate the ball. Since they’d be doing so with Pacheco, this is the logical pivot. Without great value on the slate, I’m either playing the Chiefs passing attack or Pacheco. No way I’m fading both.
Lamar Jackson will be high-owned, as will Zay Flowers, but good God is Flowers cheap. He’s gonna be high-owned because the Ravens are in a great spot with a 27-point implied total, but also because he might be the best value on the slate, regardless of position. This is boosting Lamar’s ownership and boosting it to levels where this might actually be the week where playing Lamar naked might actually be the unique construction.
Of course, we can also pivot to Mark Andrews or doublestack Lamar with both Flowers and Andrews. That part of the construction is simple. The difficult part of the process is running it back with a Cardinal. The Ravens defense is good enough to where we don’t have to run it back, but we shouldn’t trust John Harbaugh to keep the ball in Lamar’s hands deep into a blowout if Gus Edwards has the success that he should.
Err on the side of running it back with a Cardinal. Besides Week 1, Marquise Brown has seen seven targets in every game this season, including four of six with double digits. He’s the clear play and will catch virtually no ownership.
WEIRD CHALK — 49ers vs. Bengals
Sam Darnold is priced as a punt because the Brock Purdy injury news came late. But the pricing isn’t off of his skill level, to put it nicely. Darnold’s bad. That said, the Bengals aren’t a bad defense but they’re not great and the 49ers have a lot of talent to throw at the wall — with or without Deebo Samuel.
So, we have to come back to the Darnold salaries and consider stacking him with Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, or Christian McCaffrey. Aiyuk leads the team with 43 targets, Kittle is just an easy target, and McCaffrey is probably the easiest target. There isn’t really any extreme punt value on this slate, yet, so we should be open to Darnold stacks. Especially with McCaffrey.
McCaffrey might just be the best raw points play on the slate. His usage should skyrocket between the Niners being more run-heavy with the backup QB under center and being Darnold’s safety blankie.
The Niners will be very high-owned on DK, but moderately owned on FD.
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