NFL DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections: Week 12 Notes & Advice
On the heels of a wildly high-scoring Thanksgiving Day NFL slate, we can now look ahead to 10 more games on Sunday afternoon to round out Week 12. Based on our early DraftKings premium ownership projections, it looks like a more balanced build could be the popular approach in GPPs. As a result, perhaps some of the high-priced studs come in a little more contrarian than usual.
Our aforementioned DraftKings ownership projections are live and ready to roll ahead of Sunday’s NFL slate. Who will be the most popular plays on DK in Week 12?
NFL DFS Week 12 DraftKings Ownership Projections
RB Jonathan Taylor ($6,900) – 26.26% pOWN%
RB Rachaad White ($6,100) – 23.07% pOWN%
RB Javonte Williams ($5,700) – 22.79% pOWN%
WR Tank Dell ($6,900) – 21.55% pOWN%
TE Trey McBride ($4,700) – 19.87% pOWN%
Week 12 NFL DFS ownership projections for DraftKings are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
DraftKings Ownership Notes
New Week, Same Names
Quite a few of us have been on Team Cardinals over the past couple of weeks. This offense looks primed to improve now that Kyler Murray is back healthy, and most of the Cardinals’ pieces have been underpriced on DraftKings despite favorable matchups. We’re seeing more of the same in Week 12, as Trey McBride, James Conner, and Michael Wilson are currently projected to be 3 of the most 9 popular plays on the DK main slate.
McBride has been a steady source of production for a couple of different Arizona QBs since Zach Ertz went down with an injury. His 17.9% target share for the season is now second on the team behind only Marquise Brown. McBride has lured at least 5 targets in each of his last 6 games, including 16 across 2 games since Kyler came back in Week 10.
As usual, the tight end is a position that gets ugly in a hurry. Beyond Travis Kelce, there isn’t much to feel great about. Daltons Schultz and Kincaid are the next-most-expensive TEs on the board, followed by Taysom Hill and Dallas Goedert. McBride projects as the third-best raw play at the position behind Kelce and (narrowly) Kincaid as the Cardinals face the Rams in Glendale.
James Conner has the sixth-highest pOWN% of any player, but he’s fourth among running backs as he continues to hover in the $6,000 range. He hasn’t done much since his own Week 10 return, but he’s on the field plenty. Conner logged 63% of the snaps in Week 10, followed by a nice 69% of the snaps last week against the Texans. This week’s matchup against a Rams team ranking 25th in DVOA vs. the run makes this another solid spot for Arizona’s lead back.
Jonathan Chalk Week (Taylor’s Version)
At long last, it looks like time for the Jonathan Taylor breakout week. At least that’s what much of the DFS-playing public is hoping for, based on our ownership projections. Taylor has the highest pOWN% of any player on the slate, at around 26% as of this writing.
It was only a matter of time, of course. The Colts have been steadily ramping up Taylor’s workload since he came off of IR in Week 5, and he got all the way up to 88% of the Colts’ offensive snaps the last time we saw them back in Week 10. Zack Moss was out there on just 16% of the plays. Based on that, we can assume Moss and the Colts are never ever getting back together. This is JT’s backfield once again.
This Bucs defense has been a lot tougher on the run (3rd in DVOA) than they have been against the pass (20th), but Taylor’s ownership projection has a lot to do with his $6,900 salary. This was a guy we saw routinely priced in the $8,000-$9,000 range during his breakout season in 2021. We’re getting one of the most explosive players in the sport at a deep discount. Plus, we know these dome games tend to boost offensive production.
On the other side of this game, Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White is pulling about 23% pOWN%. Playing opposing running backs isn’t typically a popular stacking tactic for tournaments, but White is another guy whose price tag hasn’t yet crept up to match his production. He’s routinely on the field for about 80% of the Bucs’ snaps, and he’s found paydirt 4 times over the last 3 games. The Colts, meanwhile, are just 24th in rDVOA on the season.
Puka Time?
The Rams have a few injury question marks ahead of their home clash against the Cardinals on Sunday. Cooper Kupp went down with a low ankle sprain last weekend, which puts his status for this week very much in question. Puka Nacua popped up on the Rams’ midweek injury report with a shoulder ailment, though he turned in a full session of practice on Thursday. Based on that, it sounds like Nacua should be good to go.
Kupp is much more of a question mark. We’ve been picking on this Arizona defense all year long, as this group ranks a grim 29th in both rDVOA and pDVOA. If Kupp winds up watching this game like the rest of us, we’re going to see Puka’s projected ownership skyrocket. This is another dome game, and Nacua figures to see more than his fair share of targets in any event. The rookie has attracted at least 7 throws in every game of his career to this point, and he feasted in Weeks 1-through-4 with Kupp sidelined to begin the campaign. Matthew Stafford threw to Puka 52 times over those 4 outings, which comes out to a healthy 13 targets per game.
Kupp and Nacua are both pulling between 8-9% pOWN% as of this writing, but Nacua may become the chalkiest play of the entire week if Kupp misses out.