NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - Week 4
NFL DFS season is in full swing as Week 4 approaches, and our expert analysts are breaking down NFL DFS lineup optimizer picks and projections for FanDuel and DraftKings. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
The Dolphins absolutely broke last week’s slate, as Mostert and Achane each had four TDs, and Hill/Tua both had big games too. This week Miami will have a much tougher matchup with Buffalo at likely inflated ownership, plus Jaylen Waddle cleared concussion protocol and will be back to take some production away from the guys who went nuclear last week. This game is looking like a GPP stack for sure, but in cash games I will likely look elsewhere just based on ownership, Waddle returning, and lots of plays from other games that I like at either better salaries or with less usage competition.
Anthony Richardson has cleared concussion protocol and will start against the Rams, which could take some rushing share away from Zack Moss, and Bryce Young is back at QB for the Panthers, which could actually be a slight downgrade to the WRs after Thielen and Chark had big games with Dalton last week. Derek Carr is dealing with an AC joint sprain in his shoulder, and if he ends up out we’d see Jameis Winston start against his former Bucs team. In other Saints news, Alvin Kamara is back from his three game suspension and is a very appealing play at his current salaries, although there is some risk to his workload with Miller and Jones likely to remain in the mix for RB touches.
We’ll see if Jimmy Garoppolo is able to clear concussion protocol (he’s out now), and the status of Austin Ekeler will be big as well (officially doubtful now), mainly for the upside of Allen and Palmer who could be looking at a ridiculous target share with Mike Williams done for the year. The Ravens are full of injury new, with Beckham and Bateman out, Hill questionable, and Edwards out of concussion protocol and set to lead this backfield again.
I mentioned Winston potentially starting against his former team, but in much bigger narrative news we have Ezekiel Elliott making his first return trip to Dallas, along with Adam Thielen getting his first crack at his former Vikings team. Zeke is coming off his best game as a Patriot with 87 total yards on 17 touches, and is one of my favorite GPP plays, while Thielen has produced back-to-back games of 20+ FP, is still super cheap at $4,500, and has a great shot of finding the endzone again especially if Mingo is unable to go (concussion protocol).
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for DraftKings
I’m expecting a lot of balanced lineups in cash games this week, as we only have two QBs priced above $7,800, one RB priced above $8k, and four WRs priced above $7,900. It’s also another slate without Kelce, so TE ownership should be pretty spread out, with plenty of extreme value options in play there. The 49ers DST ($4,700) is $600 more expensive than the second priced Eagles ($4,100), but should still draw plenty of ownership against the lowest projected scoring team of the slate (Cardinals), but if you prefer to save salary there, I’d recommend the Bucs DST for just $3,300.
The 49ers, Bills, and Chargers lead the way in projected team totals, while the Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, and Dolphins all have healthy team totals of 25+ points. LAR/IND is one of my favorite “sneaky stack” games with the fifth-highest game total and just a 1.5-point spread, while DEN/CHI and MIN/CAR are other games with shootout potential and plenty of great GPP plays.
Justin Herbert ($7,800)
Right now Herbert has a projected ownership around 5%, with a lot of QB ownership expected to go to Allen, Richardson, Fields, Hurts, Stafford, and Cousins. If that holds true then Herbert is the perfect guy to go way overweight on in GPPs, and right now he’s also my favorite cash game QB. Herbert has increased his pass attempts, TDs, and FPs in every game so far without a turnover yet, and a home matchup with the Raiders is a great way for that trend to continue. Yes he just lost one of his top WRs in Williams, but Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston are one of the best WR2/3 combos in the league, while Keenan Allen ($7,900) remains an elite go-to option and is also one of my favorite cash game targets, and Everett/Parham are a great TE duo to help with redzone TDs for Herbert. Basically, Herbert is still loaded with weapons regardless of Williams and Ekeler out, draws a great home matchup with a huge 27 team total, and should be lower-owned than the two QBs priced above him with just as much if not more upside along with one of the highest floors.
Adam Thielen ($4,500)
Thielen is our current best p/$ projected WR, and should be a top cash game target at this low of a salary. Even without the added motivation of doing well against his former team, I think he’s a fantastic play, as it’s almost guaranteed the Panthers will be playing from behind, could be without Mingo, and are facing a Vikings defense that has allowed over 261 pass yards/game through three weeks. Thielen has seen 14 and 9 targets the last two weeks with both Dalton and Young at the helm, so I’m expecting at least 10 targets for him this week, especially if Mingo is out. I was shocked to see his price only go up $600 from last week, and if he puts together another 20+ FP game, we likely won’t see him below $5k the rest of the year, so take advantage of this week’s situation and excellent price tag.
DAndre Swift ($5,700)
Swift remains an absolute steal for under $6k, as the Eagles are big 8.5-point home favorites against a Washington Commanders defense allowing over 128 rush yards/game. Even with the return of Gainwell last week, Swift still had 17 touches and rushed for 130 yards against a tough Bucs D, scoring 17.8 FP without a TD. Assuming Swift gets 15+ carries and 2-3 receptions this week, I think he is a smash play at this low of a salary, and if he can find the endzone once or twice he may end up being the best p/$ play at any position. Along with Swift, Kyren Williams ($6,000) and Zack Moss ($6,000) are two of my favorite p/$ RBs this week with both looking at huge usage rates in solid matchups, and at the moment I will likely go with all three RBs in cash games with one in the flex spot.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for FanDuel
With Ekeler doubtful, we have 13 players over $8k on FanDuel, with 6 players at $9k+. With Herbert ($8,600) remaining my favorite cash game QB, I’m having a hard time fitting in other top-priced options on an overall cash game lineup I feel good about, so it’s looking like a spread out salary approach this week with as many high floor and high ceiling guys I can fit in.
The 49ers DST ($4,700) is by far my favorite cash game option as the 4th priced DST, and I still really like the salaries of Swift ($7,800) and Thielen ($6,800) along with Kyren ($7,600) and Moss ($7,300). If you don’t go with Moss, then Michael Pittman ($7,200) is a great option from Indy who is still way underpriced for someone getting 11+ targets/game, and Tutu Atwell ($6,300) would be my pick from the Rams if you don’t go with Kyren in cash games.
Davante Adams ($8,100)
This is contingent on Garoppolo playing, as he returned to practice Thursday and has a good chance of playing Sunday if he can clear concussion protocol by Saturday. Adams is our top p/$ WR on FanDuel as the 6th most expensive WR making him a great cash game target. Coming off a truly ridiculous 13-172-2 game on 20 targets last week, Adams is the definition of a high floor / high ceiling cash game target, and he draws another great matchup against a Chargers defense allowing 337 pass yards/game. With Herbert locked in as my cash game QB, Adams is easily the best bring back on the Raiders from the same game, and those two are where I would start cash game lineups and a lot of GPP teams from.
Update: With Garoppolo out I’m not as high on Adams for cash games, but he’s still a worthy GPP play. If you can move up to Keenan from Adams I’d do that, or go with someone cheaper like Thielen or Hopkins.
Dameon Pierce ($6,300)
Pierce found the endzone for the first time this season last week, but still struggled to put together a great yardage game with just 59 total yards on 17 touches. Back at home this week I think Pierce is set up for one of his monster games, as he draws a fantastic matchup against a Pittsburgh defense allowing over 151 rush yards/game. It’s hard to find an RB at this low of a salary looking at 15+ touches playing in a dome at home with this good of an on paper matchup, and I especially like his projected extremely low ownership, as Tank Dell will draw most of the ownership for Houston skill players.
DJ Moore ($6,100) / Josh Palmer ($6,100) / Zay Flowers ($6,100)
I’m highlighting all three of these WRs as they are all the same price, and I’m finding it hard not to use at least 1-2 of them in my main build. We saw what the Dolphins did to Denver last week, and now the Bears get a home matchup with them as 3.5-point underdogs in the fourth-highest projected game total (46) of the slate. With 100 yards or a TD in each of his last two games, Moore is set up for a vintage 10-150-2 type line this game, but I’ll take half of that production for cash games at this price.
With Mike Williams done for the year, Josh Palmer will step up as the WR2 for the Chargers, and coming off a 4-66-1 game on 7 targets last week, there’s a really good chance he puts up a line similar to that or even higher against the Raiders. Keenan Allen ($9,500) is crazy expensive on FanDuel so I prefer him for cash games on DraftKings, but Palmer is a great way to get more exposure to this Chargers offense without breaking the bank.
The Ravens will be without Bateman (hamstring) and Beckham (ankle) this week, which leaves Zay Flowers looking at a likely 10 target floor. Flowers has at least 8.8 FP in all three games so far without scoring a TD yet, so his salary remains super low. The Browns defense has been one of the best in the league so far, allowing the second-lowest rush yds/game and the lowest pass yds/game, so I understand if you’re avoiding the Ravens’ offense in cash games, but if you need to fill a final spot for $6,100 at WR or FLEX and you already have Moore and Palmer in your lineup, strongly consider Flowers just as a pure volume play.
Use Our DFS Lineup Optimizer for Week 4
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