NFL DFS WR/CB Matchups: Week 13
Wide receiver cornerback matchups are hardly the gospel for daily fantasy sports on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Every situation is different and they haven’t always been used optimally over the years. That said, there are still situations on the extremes where we may want to target (or avoid) a player based on their direct opposition on defense. Each week we create a WR vs. CB Matchup Chart to help us bring extreme matchups to the surface. We will now dive deep into the matchups for daily fantasy football and see who we will need to consider adjusting our projections and projected ownership for in this upcoming slate.
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NFL DFS WR vs. CB Matchups for Week 13
Allen Robinson
Likely CB: Desmond Trufant
WR Rating: 68.26
CB Rating: 43.68
CB Yards Per Route Allowed: 1.37
CB QB Rating Allowed: 96.58
Robinson is in a tier of his own at the top of our Matchup Chart, and it’s safe to say a lot of that has to do with whom he is facing. Yes, Robinson’s 68.26 WR Rating is the eighth highest on the slate, but the 43.68 CB Rating for Trufant is the fourth worst.
With Mitchell Trubisky back in the saddle last week, A-Rob saw his highest target total (13) since Week 5 (16). The two of them were able to connect on eight of those targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns. If Robinson is going to rack up targets anywhere close to that rate this weekend against Trufant and the Lions, it’s hard not to like him for our DFS lineups on Sunday.
And perhaps the best part is his price tag, as he is under $7,000 on both FanDuel ($6,900) and DraftKings ($6,700). If you are considering A-Rob on FanDuel though, just know that you might have some ownership concerns. As it stands right now, we have him projecting for the second highest ownership on the slate at wide receiver (29.66%). That high of a number for anyone with Mitchell Trubisky as their quarterback makes my stomach turn a little bit.
Tyler Lockett
Likely CB: Darnay Holmes
WR Rating: 67.16
CB Rating: 48.33
CB Yards Per Route Allowed: 0.70
CB QB Rating Allowed: 58.68
It’s times like these that I wish I knew exactly what went into the secret sauce of a CB Rating.
I say that because the 48.33 CB Rating for Holmes is the eighth worst on the slate, but some of the other metrics in there don’t seem so bad. For instance, he has only allowed 0.70 yards per route run, which is one of the lower numbers of any cornerback on the chart. Furthermore, he has only allowed a QB Rating of 58.68, which is also one of the lower numbers in that column. But the secret sauce is the secret sauce, and I am not going to doubt it!
Besides, it’s almost like Lockett is competing more against his teammate (D.K. Metcalf) for targets than he is against any cornerback he is facing. Lockett is so good that he usually beats any cornerback he is facing, but Wilson might already be zoning in on Metcalf.
And one last thing to add here is that the #LetRussCook movement might be on the back-burner for now with Chris Carson back. On the season, the Seahawks have thrown the ball roughly 61% of the time. Last week against Philly? 52% of the time.
So if Lockett sees the volume this weekend, I have little doubt that the fantasy points will follow. Whether or not he sees enough volume though appears to be the biggest variable.
Adam Thielen
Likely CB: Tre Herndon
WR Rating: 68.61
CB Rating: 50.21
CB Yards Per Route Allowed: 1.14
CB QB Rating Allowed: 123.65
Thielen’s teammate, Justin Jefferson, is fourth on this chart in terms of Matchup Rating, but the 18.40 for Thielen keeps him a tier above the 14.99 for Jefferson. And to be clear, our Matchup Rating is certainly not the be-all, end-all in terms of making fantasy football decisions, but it is just another small piece of the puzzle.
Personally, I prefer Jefferson ahead of Thielen going forward, as his market share of air yards since their Week 7 bye has been well ahead of Thielen’s (even when removing last week’s game when Thielen didn’t play). But if you are looking for reasons to go Thielen > Jefferson, the slightly superior micro matchup against Herndon would be a great place to start.
Another place to look if you want another tally in the Thielen column is to head to GridironIQ and look at the High Value Opportunity column Thielen absolutely dwarfs Jefferson in that category. So the closer the Vikings get to the end zone, the more likely it is that they look towards Cook or Thielen.
When it comes down to it though, we are pretty much splitting hairs at this point. Everyone on the Vikings offense is going to project well this weekend. They are playing the Jaguars for goodness sake!
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