NFL Divisional Round Odds: Playoff Picks, Best Bets for Sunday
We’ve already looked at NFL Divisional Round lines and betting picks for Saturday, so now it’s time to move onto Sunday and break down the odds for the Rams vs. Buccaneers and Bills vs. Chiefs, along with more picks and predictions for Sunday!
NFL Divisional Round Odds & Schedule
Saturday, January 22nd
- Bengals at Titans -3.5, O/U 47.5 | 4:30 PM ET | CBS
- 49ers at Packers -5.5, O/U 47 | 8:15 PM ET | FOX
Sunday, January 23rd
- Rams at Buccaneers -2.5, O/U 48 | 3 PM ET | NBC
- Bills at Chiefs -2, O/U 53.5 | 5:30 PM ET | CBS
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5, O/U 48
What would the playoffs be like without Tom Brady? Maybe we’ll find out in a few years, but right now the GOAT is still firmly entrenched at the top of the game. The seven-time Super Bowl champ and three-time MVP finished the 2021 season with an NFL-best 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns. Brady also had an impressive 67.5 percent completion rate, 102.1 QB rating, and a league-best 75 completions of at least 20 yards. He’ll likely finish second in MVP voting to reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, who will lead the Packers against San Francisco in Saturday’s NFC contest. Will the perennial MVP candidates both advance to the conference championship game?
At first, I thought Brady and the Bucs were a lock for the Super Bowl. Then, after a torn ACL to receiver Chris Godwin and the bizarre resignation of wideout Antonio Brown, I lowered my expectations. Now, despite an easy 31-15 first-round victory over the seventh-seed Eagles, I think Tampa Bay might be going fishing after this weekend.
Hear me out, here—I’m not just a bitter New England fan. Two of Brady’s three Pro Bowl offensive linemen—right tackle Tristan Wirfs and center Ryan Jensen—are suffering from ankle injuries sustained in the Wild Card weekend win. Even if they both suit up, they won’t be anywhere near 100 percent against the best defense in the NFL. Three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald has former Bronco Von Miller helping him in the pass-rush now, meaning double trouble for Brady. Between the two of them, Donald and Miller have 16 Pro Bowls selections, 10 All-Pro nods, two Defensive Rookie of the Year awards, two Super Bowl appearances, and one Lombardi trophy.
Brady may have a Super Bowl win over the Rams—a 13-3 dogfight the Pats escaped in 2019—but Donald and that defense have definitely given him trouble over the years. Since joining Tampa Bay, the GOAT has lost both of his matchups with LA: 34-24 in September of this season, and 27-24 in November of 2020. Brady is just 1-3 against the Rams in the Donald era. And even in that New England Super Bowl win, TB12 wasn’t himself. He completed just 21-of-35 passes for 262 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. Don’t expect a mystifying performance from Brady against this pass-rush, or a bailout of epic proportions from top wideout Mike Evans or Brady BFF tight end Rob Gronkowski. Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams are two of the top cover cornerbacks in football, and they will benefit greatly from the expected continued absence of Bucs running back “Playoff Lenny” Fournette. Tampa just doesn’t have nearly as many weapons as it enjoyed in its Super Bowl victory last season.
And the Rams, meanwhile, have plenty more weapons than they did in 2019 against Brady. For starters, they have All-Pro wideout Cooper Kupp, who just completed a brilliant season. Kupp posted NFL-leading marks across the board: 145 catches, 1,947 receiving yards, 16 TD catches, and an average of 114.5 air yards per game. Between Kupp and LA midseason acquisition Odell Beckham, who has caught TDs in six of his nine games as a Ram, Tampa’s secondary will have its hands full. Beckham brings a level of talent that has garnered three Pro Bowl selections, and a clutch factor that has helped him to 57 career touchdowns and over 375 first downs.
Of course, we’d be remiss to ignore the impact Matthew Stafford has had on Sean McVay’s Rams. The longtime Lion was a superb offseason acquisition for LA, bringing poise, playmaking, and veteran savvy as well as a canon of an arm. Stafford’s mind meld with Kupp has produced revolutionary offensive results for this franchise, easily the biggest factor in the Rams’ 12-5 record that topped the best division in football.
The Buccaneers went 7-1 at home this year, and 6-2 against the spread. But they are a vastly different team right now than they were earlier in the season, and Donald’s Rams always present Brady with an enormous challenge. Forget the Rams +2.5 at -105, I’m going with them to win straight up on the +130 moneyline. LA is 7-2 in away games this year, and coming off a dominant 34-11 first-round win over Arizona. Stafford and company have momentum, a healthier depth chart, and a much explosive squad from top to bottom on both sides of the ball. And they’ve already surmounted Brady’s Bucs twice in the past two seasons! Tampa may be looking for revenge from those losses, but McVay is still looking to avenge the 2019 Super Bowl loss to Brady. Get brazen and bet against the GOAT.
- PICK: Rams +130 ML (or +2.5 ATS), OVER 48
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs -2, O/U 53.5
Here’s one that should be an instant classic, with two of the most high-flying passing offenses in NFL history going up against each other. The Bills’ Josh Allen and the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes are the new faces of the AFC passing game, and their showdowns never fail to entertain the masses. Just look at the head-to-head stats these Pro Bowl QBs have amassed in their three career meetings since 2020:
Mahomes: 822 yards, 7 pass TDs, 2 INTs
Allen: 724 yards, 7 pass TDs, 1 rush TD, 2 INTs
Now look at the 2021 regular-season stats for the two gun-slingers:
Mahomes: 4,839 yards, 37 TDs, 13 INTs, 66.3% completion rate, 98.5 QB rating
Allen: 4,407 yards, 36 TDs, 15 INTs, 63.3% completion rate, 92.2 QB rating
As evidenced by the stats, Mahomes has been slightly better both in the short and long-term purview. And that’s backed up by the Chiefs’ 2-1 head-to-head record with Buffalo in games that both QBs started. Kansas City bested the Bills 38-24 in the AFC Conference Championship game this time last year, but the Bills got some revenge in a 38-20 regular-season win this past October.
Since the 2021 season kicked off, Mahomes and Allen rank No. 3 and 4 in TD passes (PM: 42; JA: 41), and Buffalo and Kansas City rank No. 3 and 4 in points per game (BUF: 29.4; KC: 29.0). In that span, Buffalo’s defense has led the NFL in opponent yards per game with 274.6. Kansas City, meanwhile, has surrendered 362.7 yards per game since Opening Day.
That’s where I think this game might be decided: defense. The Chiefs have allowed 365.3 yards per game over their past three outings, while Buffalo has stifled opponents to the tune of 207.7 yards per game over its last three. Kansas City, 8-2 at home this season, will have some home field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium—one of the most difficult stadiums to visit—and the Bills haven’t won a road playoff game since the 1990s. But as currently constituted, I think Buffalo is a better overall team, and could very well mount the upset.
Now, would I bet the farm on it? No, sir. We’ve seen wizard-like precision and playmaking from Mahomes in so many clutch games, it’s almost impossible to feel comfortable betting against the Chiefs. KC still has tight end Travis Kelce and wideout TyReek Hill, two of the most dominant skill-position players in football, and Melvin Ingram has been a huge in-season addition to Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. We also know that Andy Reid has led countless teams to huge postseason victories throughout his illustrious career.
But the Bills have moxie. They are coming off a massive 47-17 first-round win over the division-rival Patriots, and they couldn’t be more confident. That win marked the first time in NFL history in which a squad went seven-for-seven on offensive possessions—no punts, no field goals, no turnovers—seven possessions, seven TDs. That kind of domination against a Belichick defense should have Spag’s Chiefs trembling in fear.
Buffalo’s offensive nucleus is about as healthy as it’s been in years. Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cole Beasley comprise a four-headed receiving monster, and tight end Dawson Knox has been a legend in his own right the past couple weeks (5-89-2 last week vs. New England). Running back Devin Singletary is playing arguably the best football of his young career (16-81-2 last week). Everything is gelling right now for Sean McDermott’s team, which I picked in the preseason to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl. Why back out now!? Buffalo to the moon—just don’t bet all your Bitcoin, kids.
- PICK: Bills +105 ML (or +2 ATS), OVER 53.5
Image Credit: Imagn