NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight-Up Picks Week 12
Happy Thanksgiving! Each of our top-six confidence picks won again last week, giving us a 20-2 record in our top-six overall for confidence purposes across the last four weeks. There are no teams on bye in Week 12, meaning that all 32 NFL teams will be in action over the course of the next five days!
Below, we have our Week 12 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 12 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 12 Selections
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Detroit Lions
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Miami Dolphins
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Philadelphia Eagles
8. Cleveland Browns
9. Indianapolis Colts
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
11. Jacksonville Jaguars
12. New York Giants
13. Carolina Panthers
14. New Orleans Saints
15. Los Angeles Rams
16. Minnesota Vikings
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 12
Cowboys (vs. Commanders)
No team is truly ever a lock, and that is even more true when two teams from the division face each other. That being said, this is an extremely poor matchup for the Commanders. The Cowboys defense has finished second in pressure rate each of the last two weeks and is allowing the third-fewest yards per play of any team in the NFL this season. According to PFF, Sam Howell has the highest rate of defensive pressures turning into sacks in 2023, which means Dallas’ pass rushers could feast on more than just turkey on Thursday. Dak Prescott has incredibly not committed a turnover-worthy-play through the air in any of his last five games and now has an opportunity to face a Washington secondary unit that ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per play this year. The Cowboys might not cover, but there should not be much of a sweat as far as the outright winner of this game is concerned.
Lions (vs. Packers)
If this contest was being played on Sunday, the Lions might be more vulnerable here. Alas, this NFC North showdown is being played on Thursday afternoon, which means Green Bay is in extremely poor shape with their laundry list of key players on the injury report. Detroit’s defense has been bad – really bad, of late. Since Week 7, the Lions rank 31st in defensive EPA/play and 31st in defensive success rate. However, the Packers being without running back Aaron Jones and tight end Luke Musgrave minimizes the potential problems that the Lions defense could face in this spot. According to Clevta, Green Bay’s offense ranks 10th in EPA/play with Jones on the field this year, compared to 21st in EPA/play with him on the sidelines. This game might go down to the wire, but Jared Goff and company should be able to find a way to win.
Chiefs (vs. Raiders)
At this point, there are defensive backs probably more deserving of starting at wide receiver for the Chiefs than their current options. Still, this team has Patrick Mahomes and one of the best defenses in the entire NFL. Since Week 2, when Chris Jones returned to the field, Kansas City’s defense ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 1st in success rate. The offense continues to be a problem, but it’s unlikely to be a prohibitive factor against a Las Vegas team that has scored 16 points or fewer in four of their last five games. Aidan O’Connell will face his toughest test yet when he faces the Chiefs defense on Sunday, making it probable that the Raiders score south of 20 points once again. Kansas City is capable of winning this game, even with their offense remaining a work in progress.
Dolphins (vs. Jets)
Head coach Robert Saleh has finally decided to move on from Zach Wilson as the team’s starting quarterback, but it’s unlikely that he gets much more from Tim Boyle when his offensive line is decimated by injuries. Mekhi Becton, arguably the unit’s most important player, has still not practiced this week, which is not a good sign for his chances of suiting up on Friday. Wilson was pressured on 8-of-23 dropbacks against the Bills in Week 11, completing only one pass attempt for zero yards. Facing an improved Miami defense in Week 12, the ceiling is undeniably low for the Jets offensive attack. It is difficult to envision a scenario in which Boyle is able to keep up with Tua Tagovailoa and the high-powered Dolphins offense on Black Friday.
49ers (vs. Seahawks)
It is uncomfortable to have so many heavy favorites playing intra-division games in Week 12, but heavy favorites are heavy favorites for a reason. From 2018 to 2022, teams favored by at least seven points won 81.9% of their games. From a pick’em perspective, the math necessitates picking the heavy favorite in these situations – with the degree of confidence being the primary separator from other participants. The 49ers will be without safety Talanoa Hufanga on Thursday, which is a significant blow for their defense. Hufanga ranks 18th out of 84 safeties in run defense grade this year and 32nd in coverage, per PFF. Still, San Francisco’s collection of skill players is unmatched in the NFL, on both sides of the ball. Geno Smith struggled mightily under pressure earlier this month against the Ravens and now has to contend with a 49ers defense that led the league in defensive pressure rate last weekend. If Brock Purdy and company can put up points, it’s difficult to see Seattle hanging around in this one. The primary risk is a low-scoring affair.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 12-4
- Week 5: 7-7
- Week 6: 9-6
- Week 7: 6-7
- Week 8: 11-5
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 6-8
- Week 10: 11-3
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6