NFL Futures Update: MVP Odds and Best Bets Heading Into Week 3
NFL Week 3 kicked off on Thursday and football fans have enjoyed a thrilling early ride thus far. Not surprisingly, the quarterback position has generated the most excitement out of the gate, and signal-callers comprise the top 11 players on NFL MVP odds boards (reigning two-time rushing champ Derrick Henry is 12th) at online sportsbooks
We will be analyzing MVP odds once a week from now until the end of the regular season, keeping an eye on the movement and determining the best values. We’ll show you BetMGM’s updated top ten list, then reveal our best bets and favorite longshot picks to ultimately bring home the trophy.
Futures betting continues to rise in popularity, kind of like playing the long game in the stock market as opposed to short-selling (betting individual games). Making futures bets allows you to hitch your wagons to a player or team you believe in, and cash in on your investment down the line if they have the season you predicted.
Let’s dive into our initial market update of the MVP race, and make some early picks!
All odds are from BetMGM, and all stats are from NFL.com and Pro Football Reference.
NFL MVP Odds Board (Top 10) – Week 3
Kyler Murray +550
Patrick Mahomes +600
Tom Brady +700
Matthew Stafford +1100
Aaron Rodgers +1300
Josh Allen +1400
Dak Prescott +1600
Russell Wilson +1600
Lamar Jackson +1800
Derek Carr +2000
Frontrunners
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+600)
Football, at its core, is a game of inches. And early in the NFL season, the entire landscape of the Super Bowl and MVP race can be shifted by one play. Take, for instance, the Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumble near the end of the Chiefs-Ravens Sunday Night Football game. If the second-year back holds on to the ball there, Kansas City likely kicks the game-winning field goal. But he coughed it up, and as a result, the Chiefs drop in the power rankings and Mahomes moves to second on the MVP odds boards.
Second!? I love Kyler Murray, but we are fooling ourselves if we think Murray has a better shot at MVP than a healthy Patrick Mahomes. Murray has three interceptions on the young season, while Mahomes has just one, and Murray relies way more on his legs than the 2018 MVP. If Mahomes and the Chiefs won on the road on Sunday night, which he had them in position to do, he would be the overwhelming favorite to win MVP for the second time.
The thing is, Mahomes will just use Sunday as more motivation to steamroll his opponents. He’s already on an apparent warpath after losing to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl. Now he’s been outdone by 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson, who creeps into the Top 10 list at +1800.
If you want to make the best possible bet to win MVP, it’s Mahomes. He’s completed 75 percent of his passes and thrown for at least 337 yards in two straight games. He’s amassed seven total touchdowns while maintaining a 131.4 quarterback rating. He’s the best in football, and he has the best offense in the league. Plain and simple.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+700)
The start to Tom Brady’s 2021 campaign proves that we need an AFC and NFC MVP like MLB does with the AL and NL. The seven-time Super Bowl champ and three-time MVP has thrown for 655 yards and an NFL-leading nine touchdowns through two games, with only two picks. He has his usual 65 percent completion rate, and has the Bucs at 2-0. Ho-hum.
At 44 years old, Brady has nothing left to prove to the NFL. He’s the GOAT, and it’s almost like people aren’t interested in talking about it anymore. So, just like LeBron James regularly gets passed over in the NBA MVP discussion, much of the time Brady gets passed over in the NFL MVP race. It also doesn’t help that Mahomes and Murray are young, incredibly athletic, and more exciting to watch.
I still give the edge to Mahomes and his superior yardage, completion percentage, and rating. But it’s close, and I wouldn’t blame anybody for putting $50 down on the GOAT to win MVP.
Best Values
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (+1300)
It’s tough to pass up Matthew Stafford here, as the longtime Lion has fit in perfectly with the Rams, but Rodgers at +1300 feels like too much value to ignore. He’s the reigning MVP and three-time winner for a reason—he’s more talented than just about every other QB outside of the top three list on this board.
Rodgers had an abysmal start to the season in Jacksonville against the Saints, leading many to believe the state of Florida has cursed him. But he bounced back in a major way on Monday Night Football, completing 22-of-27 passes for 255 yards and four touchdowns. R-E-L-A-X.
Rodgers and the Packers have quite a few tough defenses on their schedule, but luckily no more trips to the Sunshine State. I would invest in the nine-time Pro Bowler because of the softies he will face—Cincy, Arizona, Detroit, Seattle, and Minnesota twice. Rodgers has the ability to smash NFL records with the addition of the 17th game, even despite his brutal Week 1 performance. With a top-five running back in Aaron Jones, and the best receiver in the game in Davante Adams, anything is possible.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (+1600)
Wilson has somehow never won an MVP award, and every season starts off looking like it will be his year. But the second halves of seasons never seem to work out in his favor, for some reason. I still say Mr. Unlimited would be a good bet at +1600, especially with wide receiver Tyler Lockett balling out of control. If Lockett, fellow wideout DK Metcalf, and running back Chris Carson can stay healthy, Wilson remains as good a bet at +1600 than anyone.
Wilson’s numbers through two games: 74.1 completion percentage, 597 yards, six TDs, no interceptions, and an NFL-leading 146.9 quarterback rating. He also leads the lead in yards per pass attempt (11.1) and adjusted yards per pass attempt (13.1). He’s still awesome.
Longshots
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+1800)
We must give Jackson some love after beating fellow member of the MVP club Patrick Mahomes on Sunday Night Football. Jackson finally got a W over his young rival, and he looks poised to make mincemeat out of a plethora of defenses this season. He’s a cheat code—even if you know what he’s going to do, you probably can’t stop him.
The 2019 MVP notched his 11th career double-triple Sunday (triple digits in two different stat categories). Michael Vick is the only other player in NFL history with more than seven. Jackson has a better and healthier receiving corps this year than he did in 2020, while his running back committee has been decimated by injuries. If Baltimore wins, it will be because of LJax. And if Baltimore makes the playoffs, he’s got a great shot at his second MVP trophy.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Denver Broncos (+6600)
Do not adjust your resolution, I included Teddy Bridgewater in an MVP article. The seven-year vet has been very good so far in his first year in Denver, leading the Broncos to a 2-0 start. He’s got 592 passing yards, four touchdowns, zero picks, a 77.1 completion percentage, and a 120.7 QB rating. He’s succeeding despite wideout Jerry Jeudy’s injury, and despite the Broncos subpar running game. Throw $10 on Teddy B if you like low-risk, high-reward longshot plays.
Image Credit: Imagn