NFL Grind Down: Divisional Round Games - Page 2

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2014-01-09 04:33:25

San Francisco at Carolina

San Francisco 49ers						Carolina Panthers
Sun – 1:05 PM ET						Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-1.5	43	22.25				1.5	43	20.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.4	11	30	3		Offense	22.9	18	29	11
Defense	17.0	3	7	4		Defense	15.1	2	6	2
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina	2	6	2	22		San Francisco	4	7	8	12
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Boldin	130	8.1	8.7	11.0		Smith	109	7.3	3.5
Crabtree	33	6.6	7.0	8.0		Lafell	88	5.3	3.7	5.0
Patton	5	0.8	1.5	3.0		Ginn Jr.		4.3	3.3	5.0
Davis	84	5.6	5.0	5.0		Olsen	109	6.9	7.7	8.0

San Francisco 49ers

Heading to North Carolina this weekend, the 49ers should be ecstatic that the forecast is expecting nearly 60 degree temperatures, light winds and only a 10% chance of rain. They’ll meet the Panthers in the Sunday afternoon game, with a trip to the NFC Championship game on the line. The over/under in this game is extremely low, at just 43 points with the 49ers actually being favored by a point and a half. It’s no surprise the O/U is so low though, seeing as when these two teams met in San Fran in Week 10 they totaled 19 points with Carolina sneaking out a 10-9 victory. SF failed to find the end zone in that game, and their offense completely stalled out with Colin Kaepernick throwing for a measly 91 yards, his lowest total of the season. The 49ers as a team had possession for just 27 of the 60 minutes and Kaepernick was sacked a career high 6 times in that game. Dwan Edwards got to Kaep twice, with Kuechly, Klein, Charles Johnson and Mike Mitchell getting a piece of Colin as well. Another big story from that game was the concussion to Vernon Davis. Davis left halfway through the 2nd quarter and did not return, which undoubtedly threw a kink in the 49ers passing attack that had yet to return Michael Crabtree to the field at that time. So they come into Sunday’s game with a decisively better receiving corps, that will include Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree. The Panthers secondary meanwhile has fallen off heavily since that complete lockdown of San Fran. Since that Week 10 game, 5 of the 7 quarterbacks that have faced Carolina have thrown for over 280 yards including 10 total passing touchdowns. They rank 2nd overall against QBs on the season, but over the last 5 weeks that ranking is 13th overall and it drops as low as 16th over the last 3 games. Kaepernick has been trending in the other direction, and since the return of Michael Crabtree, Kaep is averaging 19.5 fantasy points per game over 6 contests.

In coverage, the Panthers have struggled mightily against tight ends in recent weeks, specifically the premiere type tight ends like Vernon Davis. Jimmy Graham thrashed them for 11 catches, 131 yards and 3 TDs over 2 games late in the season and Rob Gronkowski had 5 receptions for 59 yards and a score in his Week 11 contest vs. CAR. Even Jeff Cumberland of the Jets had 50 receiving yards and a TD against CAR in Week 15. On the outside, Captain Munnerlyn figures to lineup with Anquan Boldin for the majority of snaps, with Melvin White taking on the task of slowing Crabtree who had 125 receiving yards on 8 catches in Green Bay. Munnerlyn finished the season as the 25th highest rated corner in pass coverage on PFF, while White was up and down all year, finishing as the 71st highest rated corner in coverage of 110 qualified CBs. Crabtree will definitely have the better of the two matchups, and could be looking at his 2nd straight big game in the playoffs after Sunday is all said and done.

Rushing the ball, Frank Gore had a decent game on Sunday, but disappointed my expectations a bit as the cold weather and poor Green Bay front seven had me looking for bigger things than his 3.3 YPC average on 20 touches. Gore was the most successful of the San Fran weapons in the Week 10 contest vs. Carolina, going for 82 yards on just 16 carries for a 5.13 YPC average. Overall though, the Carolina front seven has been as good as any in the NFL, with no running back breaking the 100 yard rushing plateau since C.J. Spiller did it way back in Week 2 of the 2013 season. The one area where they’ve shown real weakness against RB’s though is in the screen game, which relates very closely to their issues against the TE position. They allowed the 8th most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs on the season and the most receptions per game to RBs, at an average of 7.1 REC per game. Gore isn’t typically a staple of the passing game for San Francisco, but even he reeled in a couple of passes for 21 yards against CAR back in Week 10. It’s pretty unlikely that SF changes their game plan to incorporate more screens for Gore, but if they wanted to the yards are there for the taking.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers took down the 2 seed in the NFC, but that still wasn’t enough to get them enough respect in Vegas to make them a home favorite in the divisional round. A big reason for this is experience, as Cam Newton preps to take the field in his first NFL playoff game. Newton is no stranger to big games though, and as you probably remember he put together a pretty impressive performance in the BCS title game back at Auburn. He threw for 265 yards and 2 scores, while adding 64 yards on the ground. This isn’t college though, and he’s not facing a horrible Oregon Ducks defense. He’ll have to go against a 49ers team that put together a great performance against Aaron Rodgers in the wild card round. I’m not sure if it was the cold weather, or if the San Fran defense actually woke up again, but they looked impressive in that win last weekend. They held Rodgers to just 177 yards passing, and the only real player of fantasy value to go against San Fran was Jordy Nelson who had 7 receptions for 62 yards and a score. That performance came on the heels of back-to-back 100+ yard receiving efforts allowed to WR1’s, and while they performed better as a unit, they have still allowed an average of 18.7 FPPG to WR1s over their last three games (Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Jordy Nelson). The coverage issues are there, so the status of Steve Smith for this contest is even more critical if the Panthers are to advance to the NFC title game. Smith is expected to suit up, but be sure to double check that as the games get closer.

Beyond Newton and the passing game, the Panthers are likely to continue the formula that has lead to W’s all season long; controlling the time of possession and running the football. Carolina ran the ball on the 4th highest percentage of snaps, at just over 48% for the year. Their rush offense rated 6th highest overall on PFF and could see the return of Jonathan Stewart this weekend. That’s unfortunate news for daily fantasy though, as the three headed monster of Stewart-Williams-Tolbert saps any value from the Panthers backfield. In the 5 full games that Stewart played this season, no Panthers RB had more than 50 rushing yards in a game and the most carries given to any single back was 14 awarded to Stewart in Week 13. The 49ers are terrific against the run, but DeAngelo Williams did touch them up a bit in the Week 10 game, going for 46 yards including a 23 yard touchdown run that was the only touchdown of the entire game. In fact, the Panthers offense didn’t even make it into the red zone in that game.

SF @ CAR – Daily Fantasy Relevant

• Colin Kaepernick – Kaep’s price varies a lot across the board, and while the matchup isn’t great, he still has enough weapons surrounding him now that he can break out for 20 fantasy points in any game. He makes for a solid GPP play, and he’s the cheapest starting QB on DK this weekend at a mere $7300. He’s also reasonable on FD, DS, DD and FF.

• Frank Gore – It’s a really tough matchup for Gore but for $4600 on DK he has to be in consideration. He gets guaranteed touches and 80 yards plus a TD isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.

• Michael Crabtree – Crabtree is probably the better GPP play between himself and Boldin, and he has the better matchup of the two as well. He’s cheaper than Boldin on DK and FF, so definitely target him there.

• Anquan Boldin – Boldin shows up in mysterious ways, and he seems to play well in what look like tough matchups. I think he comes with a lot of risk this weekend, but given the short slate, rostering him could be justified.

• Vernon Davis – Davis is the 3rd highest priced tight end on all sites but DD and FTD, so I’d avoid him on those sites where you can get Orange Julius for less. On the other sites, he has a good match up and the Panthers have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to opposing tight ends over the last 5 weeks and 3rd most over the last 3 weeks.

• Cam Newton – Newton will need to be stellar in this game to advance the Panthers beyond a 49ers team with a ton of playoff experience despite a relatively young roster. At $8500 on FD he’s cheap enough to be worth consideration in GPPs, and at $12500 on StarStreet he makes a nice QB2 in all formats.

• DeAngelo Williams – His value plummets to near zero if Stewart suits up, and he has little value to begin with in a really tough matchup. He relies on the big play to hit value, so leave him for GPPs only.

• Steve Smith – If he goes, he’s min priced on FD and just $4K on DK. I usually wouldn’t roster him, but there are only four games and he could easily hit value in either of those places. I also like his $6.4K tag on FTD.

• Brandon LaFell – Lafell is actually pricier than Smith on most sites, so I don’t know if I’d take him over the veteran but on DK Lafell is min-priced and could be a strong GPP gamble.

• Greg Olsen – Olsen is locked in as the 4th highest tight end on every site except DK, where he has good value at $4.7K. Considering San Fran ended their regular season by allowing the 2nd most FPPG to tight ends over their last five games, Olsen could be in for a good game on Sunday.

San Diego at Denver

San Diego Chargers						Denver Broncos
Sun – 4:40 PM ET						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9.5	54.5	22.5				-9.5	54.5	32
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.8	12	4	13		Offense	37.9	1	1	15
Defense	21.8	11	29	12		Defense	24.9	22	27	7
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver	25	20	20	28		San Diego	22	13	28	8
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Allen	105	6.9	6.7	8.0		Thomas	143	8.9	8.3	6.0
Brown	69	4.3	2.7	0.0		Decker	137	8.5	9.0	5.0
Royal	67	4.5	5.0	5.0		Welker	110	8.5
Gates	116	7.1	3.7	5.0		Thomas	89	6.4	7.0	5.0

San Diego Chargers

We’ve made it to the most daily fantasy enticing game of the weekend. The Chargers head to Denver to try and knock of the Broncos for the 2nd time in Mile High Stadium this season. They might be the hottest team in the NFL, and they’ve won games by focusing on the ground and pound. The formula for victory on Thursday Night Football in Week 15 vs. DEN was running the football. Ryan Mathews saw 29 carries and tallied 127 yards and a score. Since that game, the Broncos front seven has held strong with the Texans and Raiders running backs combining for a grand total of 97 rushing yards in Weeks 16 and 17. But neither of those teams were able to commit to running the football and neither present the same type of rushing prowess that San Diego brings to the table. Further, the Broncos also lost Von Miller after that San Diego game and have since lost defensive lineman Derek Wolfe, who looks very unlikely to play on Sunday night. This is on top of the Kevin Vickerson injury that occured a couple of weeks before these teams met in Denver in early december. This spells a perfect storm for Ryan Mathews, but he is also looking questionable to suit up this weekend after leaving last week’s game with a nagging ankle injury. It looked early in the week as if he was pulled for precautionary measures, but since he has yet to practice all week there are growing concerns about his status. If Mathews is unable to play, Danny Woodhead figures to factor into the Chargers plans as the featured back. Woodhead was phenomenal last week against Cincinnati, coming up with big plays on key third downs early with Mathews on the field, then pounding the Bengals into submission after Mathews left the game. He got 15 carries, going for 54 yards and a TD and 3rd string RB Ronnie Brown stepped in with 77 yards on 8 carries with a score, although almost all of those came on his 60 yard scamper at the very end of the game.

If Mathews is able to go, he looks like a safe bet to get 20 touches for over 100 rushing yards based on his recent success. He was well on his way to reaching that plateau again against Cincy, leaving the game early in the third quarter with 13 carries and 52 rushing yards to his name. Before last week, Mathews had seen at least 24 touches in four consecutive games, rushing for at least 99 yards in each and finding the end zone on three occasions. The Broncos front seven is extremely banged up and the flow of this game could pivot based on whether or not Mathews is able to dress AND run effectively.

Through the air, Philip Rivers has become a bit of a Alex Smith-esque game manager in recent weeks. Last weekend, he had just 128 yards passing with 1 TD while the Chargers protected a lead for most of the game. During the Chargers 5 game win streak, Rivers does however have 2 20+ fantasy point performances by virtue of red zone success, with 10 passing touchdowns in those 5 games. Against the Broncos in Week 15, Rivers threw for 2 scores, both to rookie WR Keenan Allen. Allen has been superb in the red zone, but hasn’t really established himself between the 20’s in recent weeks. He has 5 receiving touchdowns over the last 5 games, but only 15 receptions in that span. In fact, 9 of Allen’s 23 targets over the last four weeks of the regular season came inside the red zone. Essentially, we haven’t seen the same Keenan Allen who posted 5 100+ yard receiving games over an 8 week span earlier in the season.

Matchup wise, Allen gets to face the defense that allowed the 7th most FPPG to opposing WRs this season and allowed 7 different wideouts to go for over 100 receiving yards in 2013. The Denver secondary has definitely been better of late though, ranking 16th against WRs in terms of fantasy points allowed over the last 5 weeks and 11th over the last 3 weeks. In the Week 15 matchup, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie took the majority of coverage snaps against Allen on the outside, and he was pretty solid minus one red zone lapse. He held Allen to just one reception for 19 yards on 4 targets, with that one reception ending up in the end zone and this impressively athletic GIF from Allen:

CB Champ Bailey also figures to see a few snaps in coverage on Allen, as he’s been slowly reincorporated into the Broncos defensive schemes as he comes back from yet another injury. He’s going to be limited again on Sunday though, so his presence shouldn’t impact your fantasy decision making too much.

Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning would very much like to forget about his struggles in Week 15 against the Chargers, and his stat lines over the last two games of the regular season would indicate he was a little upset about his performance in that Thursday night game:

• Week 16 vs. HOU – 400 PaYd, 4 PaTD, 0 INT, 32 FP
• Week 17 vs. OAK (in one half) – 266 PaYd, 4 PaTD, 26.64 FP

He absolutely roasted two pretty poor teams while breaking every passing record once set by my beloved Tom Brady. On Sunday night, he’ll have his chance to make amends for the 289 yard, 2 TD and 1 INT performance against San Diego in Week 15 (yes, for Peyton that’s a bad game). It was his fourth lowest fantasy total of the season, with just 18.9 points and he was much better when these teams met in SD in Week 10, posting 27.9 fantasy points while throwing for 330 passing yards and 4 TDs. The San Diego secondary has been much improved recently though, and the defense he faced in Week 15 was a more cohesive unit than the one in Week 10. Over the last 5 games of the regular season, San Diego allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, compared to their 22nd ranking for the season as a whole. Last weekend, Andy Dalton was able to hit the 300 yard plateau in catch up mode, but struggled overall as he was intercepted twice and fumbled away another possession in that game.

Of course, it’s not entirely fair to compare Manning’s career playoff numbers with his record breaking 2013 season, but his struggles in the playoffs still have to be noted when considering him for daily fantasy purposes this weekend. In his 20 career playoff games, Manning has just 6 games with over 20 fantasy points, compared to 7 games under the 10 fantasy point mark. Further, here are the overall splits between his 20 playoff starts and 16 regular season starts from 2013:

He’s had some great games in the playoffs, but as a whole he has been decidedly less effective in the postseason compared to the regular season.

As far as matchup and coverage goes, the Chargers likely won’t shadow any of the Denver receivers with a specific corner, but Shareece Wright and Richard Marshall handled Demaryius Thomas most often in Week 15, holding him to just 4 receptions for 45 yards. Andre Caldwell had the most success in that contest, finding the end zone twice on 6 catches for 59 yards. Eric Decker was horrible in that game, catching just 2 balls for 42 yards. The expected return of Wes Welker in this one is great news for the Broncos, and for daily fantasy purposes as the Bengals were able to find success using Marvin Jones in short range situations. Jones caught all 5 of his targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage for 48 of his 130 receiving yards. Welker’s average depth of target, according to PFF stats, was just over 8 yards this season and he is the perfect short range threat that can give this SD defense fits.

There are so many pieces to break down in Denver’s offense, but the most underrated might be Knowshon Moreno. Moreno was completely taken out of the game in Week 15 against San Diego, rushing just 8 times for 19 yards and catching 5 balls for 36 more. The receiving game may be Moreno’s best bet to do damage, and San Diego is coming off a game where Gio Bernard was able to haul in 7 catches for 73 yards which included a couple of big drops that could’ve inflated that number even higher. With the other weapons drawing most of the attention in the passing game, Moreno is often used as a safety valve for Manning and has excelled in that role throughout the season. He only had over 100 yards rushing once all season, but managed 7 games with at least 5 receptions with 5 games over 50 receiving yards. The Broncos also figure to use Montee Ball a bit in this one, and he was another receiving weapon in the Week 15 game against these Chargers. In that game he also caught 5 balls for 49 yards and has 3 or more catches in 5 of his last 7 games.

SD @ DEN – Daily Fantasy Relevant

• Philip Rivers – If the Chargers fall behind in this game and are unable to control the pace like they did in their Week 15 win, Rivers will be forced to throw the ball a lot and his value likely goes way up. He’s a solid play at $13.2K on DS, $8K on FD, and $16.7K on DD

• Ryan Mathews – His $8K tag on DS stands out to me as almost ‘must-own’ status if he suits up on Sunday. He’s also cheap on DD at $12.7K and DK at $5.8K.

• Danny Woodhead – Woody gets a boost on all full point per reception sites, and at $5.7K on DK he makes a good value. If Mathews can’t play, he should be plugged in on any site.

• Keenan Allen – His price has fallen way off but Allen is still talented enough to have a huge game, especially against a Broncos defense that allowed the 7th most FPPG to WRs on the year. At $8.4K on DS and $6.5K on DK, he is a nice middle of the pack WR for large field tournament use only this weekend.

• Eddie Royal – Royal is a GPP play only whose price allows you to stuff your lineup with some high priced options. If Denver gets a lead and Rivers is forced to throw a lot, Royal has proven to be one of his favorite red zone targets this season.

• Antonio Gates – Gates is somehow less than Ladarius on FanDuel, sitting at min-price for $4500 this weekend. There and at $8800 on DraftDay are the two best values that jump out and the Broncos have struggled at times vs. Tight Ends.

• Ladarius Green – For near min price across the board, Green is one of the best punt options at TE. He has touchdowns in each of his last two games and may be leaned on even more if the Chargers are forced to throw a bunch.

• Peyton Manning – Manning is going to cost you the most across the board this weekend, so decide based on his comparative value on each site. On DS, he’s $4K more than any other QB, so he might be fadeable there. Similar price differences hold on DD, FD, FF and FTD. On DK and SS, the drop off isn’t too significant, so you can easily get him into your lineups and should. He’s a lock for all sites in H2H or 50/50 games.

• Knowshon Moreno – Moreno is the 2nd highest priced RB across the board this weekend, just behind Beast Mode. I like that spot and he has more value on full point PPR sites like DK, DD and SS.

• Demaryius Thomas – He’s the most expensive WR across the board, and pairing him with Manning is going to put a serious dent in your salary cap. The duo might be worth it though, and Thomas’ ceiling is as high as any player in this weekend’s contests.

• Eric Decker – Decker has been the boom or bust option for Denver, who should be left alone in H2H or 50/50’s and used exclusively in large field tournaments.

• Wes Welker – Welker’s price dropped when he was injured, and he’s just under $9K on DS, $6.2K on DK, $13.5K on SS and $10.6K on FTD. Use him where his price is reasonable, as I think he has the best matchup of all the Broncos receiving options this weekend.

• Julius Thomas – Thomas has a better match up than the higher priced Jimmy Graham, and may finish the weekend as the highest scoring tight end. He makes a good play in all formats, and both Graham and Thomas could be used in the same lineup on DS, with both being under $10K.

Sunday Games – Saturday Games