Sign In $

NFL Grind Down: Thanksgiving Day Games

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-11-28 07:20:47

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Special Edition Thanksgiving Day NFL Grind Down. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

grind%20down%20article%20faq

Green Bay at Detroit

Green Bay Packers Detroit Lions
Packers Lions
Thurs – 12:30PM ET Ford Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
5.5 49.5 22 -5.5 49.5 27.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.8 8 5 5 Offense 26.0 7 3 22
Defense 24.1 18 20 19 Defense 25.2 22 28 4
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Detroit 22 8 31 13 Green Bay 20 17 19 22
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Nelson 88 8.1 8.7 7.0 Johnson 122 12.3 14.7 14.0
Jones 57 6.3 8.3 12.0 Burleson 33 8.3 10.0 10.0
Boykin 54 4.9 10.3 10.0 Durham 63 5.6 5.3 6.0
Quarless 28 2.5 3.3 3.0 Pettigrew 57 5.1 5.0 5.0

Green Bay Packers

The Packers head into Detroit on a short week following an extended game on Sunday that ended up in a tie. They were unable to dispose of the Vikings, at home nonetheless, and now sit in 3rd place in the NFC North. Luckily for them, the Bears and Lions both also lost and this game will be massive for divisional positioning. They’ll be relying on Matt Flynn to take over the Quarterback duties, a week after he lead the Pack to an impressive come back just to force overtime in the tie. Flynn threw for 218 yards and a score after playing just the last 23 minutes of the game. Here’s who Flynn was targeting most in that time:

It’s an interesting breakdown, and worth noting that two of Nelson’s targets came in near desperation as the overtime clock wound down. According to ProFootballFocus , of the 29 ‘aimed’ passes thrown by Flynn, 20 of them were at a depth of 9 yards or shorter. This goes in line with the perception of Flynn from Oakland, where many claimed he had a ‘noodle arm’. Clearly the short range passes are where he’s most comfortable, and Jones and Boykin benefitted heavily from that. It’s also worth noting that the Lions are allowing the 3rd most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks over the last 3 weeks. In that span, Cutler/McCown combined for 300+ yards, Roethlisberger threw for 367 and Glennon had 250 pass yards. All three teams had multiple passing touchdowns as well. To make matters worse, 4 different receivers have had 100+ yard games in that 3-game span.

On the ground, it’s all about Eddie Lacy who had a huge day on Sunday and now has broken more tackles than all but two other backs in the NFL. Maybe most important for Lacy’s value though, were the 6 targets and 6 receptions he posted. With Tolzien at the helm, Lacy had just 3 total receptions but Flynn seemed more inclined to check down and utilize Eddie in the screen game as shown by all 6 of his targets above coming with Flynn in the game. As far as the matchup goes, it certainly appears to be tough sledding for Lacy. Here are the game logs for the last three RB1’s the Lions faced:

Week 10: Matt Forte – 17 carries, 33 yards, 0 TD
Week 11: LeVeon Bell – 18 carries, 36 yards, 0 TD
Week 12: Bobby Rainey – 18 carries, 35 yards, 0 TD

If Lacy wants to be relevant on Sunday, he’ll have to do better than the sub-2 yards per carry average the Lions have held their last three opponents to.

Detroit Lions

Losing at home to the 2-8 Bucs was not ideal for an aspiring playoff team, but Detroit will have to bounce back quickly in what might be a must-win game considering Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers set to return very soon. It starts through the air for Detroit, and Matthew Stafford was able to tally up his third consecutive multi-TD game but also turned the ball over 4 times on INT’s. Two of those came under pressure, which is something he’ll struggle to avoid on Thursday against a Packers front seven that is leading the NFL in sacks per game over the last 3 weeks. They’ve gotten to the QB 13 times over their last three games. This makes for an interesting battle in the trenches against Detroit’s offensive line, which ranks 6th on PFF’s offensive line ratings. Green Bay has struggled in the secondary though, allowing at least 220 passing yards and a pass-TD in each of their last three as well as 2 100+ yard receivers. Beyond Megatron, this may benefit Nate Burleson who returned from injury last week and was targeted 10 times and caught 7 of those for 71 yards and a TD. Still, Calvin Johnson is the headliner for Detroit and should be revved up for this one after missing their Week 5 matchup earlier in the season. Since he didn’t play in Week 5, we’ll go back to 2012 to peek at Calvin’s success vs. the Pack:

On the ground, Reggie Bush struggled for the second consecutive game, at least in terms of what we expect out of Bush. He did total 100 yards, 83 coming on the ground, but managed just 14 fantasy points. He’ll have a juicy matchup here against a Green Bay rush defense that has allowed the 8th most FPPG to opposing running backs over their last 5 games and is coming off allowing Adrian Peterson to go for 146 yards and a score, as well as allowing Toby Gerhart to tally 91 yards on just 8 carries. Peterson’s 100+ yard effort made him the third back in four weeks to break triple digits in rush yards vs. Green Bay.

GB @ DET – Daily Fantasy Relevant

1) FanDuel: Stafford ($9900) + Johnson ($10100) = $20,000/$60,000 Cap = 33.33% of Cap
2) DraftStreet: Stafford ($16.6K) + Johnson ($16.4K)= $33,000/$100,000 Cap = 33% of Cap
3) DraftKings: Stafford ($9400) + Johnson ($10600) = $20,000/$50,000 Cap = 40% of Cap

Game Predictions

This is mostly for fun, but since it’s a holiday here are some predictions.

I wanted to take James Jones and the Packers to win so I could have flashbacks to Donald Driver trying to bite into the Galloping Gobbler after Green Bay’s 2009 Thanksgiving day victory in Detroit but I just don’t see that happening.

Oakland at Dallas

Oakland Raiders Dallas Cowboys
Raiders Cowboys
Thurs – 4:30PM ET AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
9.5 46.5 18.5 -9.5 46.5 28
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 19.4 26 29 4 Offense 27.1 5 12 29
Defense 24.5 20 25 8 Defense 25.4 23 31 30
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Dallas 32 32 20 29 Oakland 23 10 28 12
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Moore 74 7.4 7.5 Bryant 106 9.5 9.0 16.0
Ford 17 1.5 0.7 1.0 Williams 52 4.7 3.5 2.0
Streater 62 5.6 7.0 9.0 Beasley 41 4.4 4.0 4.0
Rivera 37 3.4 3.3 2.0 Witten 79 7.2 6.5 7.0

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders come into their Thanksgiving day matchup with a 4-7 record and following a tough home loss to Tennessee. Their opponent, the Cowboys, has struggled at one point or another in nearly every defensive aspect of the game. The loss of Sean Lee two weeks back has left a gaping hole in their front seven and both the Saints and Giants have been able to gash them for big yardage. But even with Lee, they were a pretty bad rush defense. Over the last 5 games, they’re dead last in the NFL and allowing 40.28 FPPG to opposing running backs. Compare that to the 2nd to last team, Tennessee, who’s allowing 30 FPPG to opposing RBs in that span. There should be holes available for Rashad Jennings, who has come on strong as Oakland’s featured back over the past couple of weeks and has touched the ball 20+ times in both games since McFadden went down. The bad news is that McFadden is expected to return, and while Jennings is still going to be the starter, it’s unclear how big of an impact McFadden will have and how that may affect Jennings’ fantasy value. Still, Oakland is one of the heaviest running percentage teams in the NFL, and over the last 3 games they’re 7th in the NFL in run play percentage at 45.6% of plays.

Through the air, Matt McGloin has taken the reigns of the Oakland passing game and there are a few guys who have really benefitted from that. Here’s his target breakdown over the last 2 weeks:

Streater (18 targets), Moore^1^ (6 targets), Holmes (8 targets), Rivera (8 targets), Jennings (7 targets), Reece (10 targets)

1 – Moore did not play in Week 12.

The big noteworthy player there is obviously Streater, who has benefitted with McGloin as well as due to the injury to Denarius Moore. Moore won’t suit up again on Thursday, leaving a big void for Streater to once again occupy. McGloin also targeted Rivera heavily in Week 11 and was on his way to getting Mychal some more touches in Week 12 before he was laid out and left the game with concussion symptoms. Rivera is expected to play and should see a half dozen targets again. The key in this game is the spread, which indicates that Oakland should be playing catch up. That opens the door for McGloin, Streater, Rivera and perhaps Marcel Reece as a deep sleeper at the RB position. Reece has a ton of value in full-point PPR games and has the 2nd most targets with McGloin under center. Andre Holmes also stands out after his 5 targets in Week 12, though he only caught 2 balls for 32 yards. Assuming Oakland is playing catch up, you can then look at the Cowboys secondary which has been an embarrassment all season. They rank dead last against QBs for the season and last 5 games splits, and are 2nd to last over their last 3. They’ve allowed 5 QBs to throw for over 390 yards against them on the season and have 0 interceptions over their last 2 games.

Dallas Cowboys

For Dallas, the win in NY was absolutely huge as they essentially eliminated the G-men from playoff contention and moved themselves 2 games about .500. Their passing game will be handed a golden opportunity in Week 13 against an Oakland defense that has been really struggling through the air. Just look at the recent game logs:

If Fitzpatrick and Foles can light up this defense, then Romo should be able to as well. He’s lost just one career home game during the month of November and while most are waiting to see him prove himself in December (and January), daily fantasy players can play him with confidence on the turf in November. Last week, Romo pretty much abandoned all of his passing options beyond Bryant and Witten, who totaled 23 of Tony’s 38 targets. It looked as if Miles Austin may get more involved coming off the bye, but both Austin and Terrance Williams were non factors for the Boys. Since we can’t base much off of that, it’s worth noting that Austin played 74% of snaps compared to just 63% for Terrance Williams.

On the ground, DeMarco Murray is quietly playing really well despite getting limited touches in a pass-heavy Dallas offense. In fact, Dallas is throwing more than any other team over their last 3 games, at a 73.9% clip. Murray got 14 carries and broke for 86 yards, a 6.1 YPC clip. The week before against NO, he got 16 carries for 89 yards and a score, 5.5 YPC clip. Given that favorable spread, Murray may see closer to 20 touches which puts him in a great position to cross the 100+ yard marker. His chances are even higher when you consider the recent struggles of a once stout front seven for Oakland. Week 12 marked the 4th consecutive game where Oakland allowed 90+ yards on the ground to their opposing backs.

OAK @ DAL – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Game Predictions

I do think this game will be a little higher scoring than the Vegas lines would indicate, but Dallas should skate to an easy win.

Maybe it’s a gut thing, but I think Murray is going to be unleashed on Thanksgiving. It’s a short week and the Cowboys are coming off a physical game against a divisional rival. Murray should see an increased workload.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens
Steelers Ravens
Thurs – 8:30PM ET M&T Bank Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
2.5 40.5 19 -2.5 40.5 21.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 22.1 21 8 30 Offense 20.6 24 19 27
Defense 23.3 13 10 23 Defense 19.5 7 11 11
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Baltimore 11 3 17 15 Pittsburgh 9 21 15 10
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Brown 115 10.3 10.3 10.0 Smith 96 8.6 8.7 4.0
Sanders 83 7.5 5.0 7.0 Jones 31 4.6 3.3 6.0
Wheaton 12 1.7 2.0 0.0 Brown 48 5.3 2.5 2.0
Miller 55 6.4 8.0 6.0 Clark 50 4.5 3.3 4.0

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers and Ravens meet again, not long removed from their matchup in Pittsburgh in Week 7. Big Ben lead the Steelers to a 19-16 win in that one, and Big Ben has been the headline for a recently surging Pittsburgh offense. Their passing game has moved all the way into the Top-10 in PFF’s passing offense ratings and Roethlisberger has been a fantasy stud over the last 4 games. In that span he has 1,188 passing yards, 11 pass TDs and 3 INTs. Over the course of a full season that projects out to over 4700 passing yards and 44 scores.But it’s worth noting that two of those games have shouldered the bulk of the stats, and two games in that span were relative duds. He also draws a Baltimore defense that held him to just 160 yards in that Week 7 victory. Beyond that, the Baltimore secondary really hasn’t had that many strong performances. Last weekend they were able to rattle Geno Smith and snap a 7-game streak with allowing a TD pass, but 5 different quarterbacks have posted 250+ pass yard games against them on the year and 4 different receivers have 100+ yards receiving over the last 4 weeks.

On the ground, it’s not going to be easy for Le’Veon Bell against a rush defense that ranks 3rd overall on PFF’s rush D ratings. The Ravens have only allowed 1 100+ yard rusher all season, but Bell did find success in Week 7 against BAL with 18 rushes for 93 yards. That’s the second most among all backs vs. this defense. Also with Baltimore slightly favored, Bell is less likely to match the 23 touches he saw out of the backfield in Week 12 vs. CLE. One last note on Bell, he’s only had more than 80 yards on the ground once all season (vs. BAL), and his upside has actually been pretty low despite a good number of touches for the rookie.

Baltimore Ravens

This game is a near must-win for Baltimore. Having dropped one game on the road to the Steelers already, a loss on Thursday would put them a game back of Pittsburgh with PIT having won both H2H matchups. It’s been a long season for Joe Flacco who has completed under 60% of his passes this year and an ESPN QBR of 48.5 which ranks in the bottom half of NFL starting quarterbacks. The Ravens are so desperate to kick start their offense they trotted out a few wildcat sets in Week 12. Flacco was not a fan and ripped into the scheme earlier this week, saying that if he’s sent out wide in the Wildcat, he’s not even going to try and block.

That’s not exactly inspiring from the highest paid QB in NFL history. But there were some positives to come out of the Ravens Week 12 win. Jacoby Jones had an impact on a game for the first time since last season’s playoff run. He lead the team with 6 targets and managed 100+ yards receiving on just 4 catches. His counterpart in the vertical game, Torrey Smith, saw a season low 4 targets and had just 2 catches for 74 yards. His average depth of target continues to be over 15 yards downfield, according to ProFootballFocus, so it’s not unlikely that the heavy winds in Baltimore last Sunday minimized his impact.

In the backfield, Ray Rice had a strong 131 rushing yards game against a cupcake Bears rush D, then followed it up with some serious struggles against the best rush defense in the NFL right now in the Jets. He’s at a point where he’s a matchup-only daily fantasy option. There are plenty of guys in that category, but Rice takes it to an extreme. His only 2 productive days this year for DFS purposes came against Miami and Chicago, both ranking in the bottom-6 of NFL defense vs. position standings. Pittsburgh’s rush D has been perceived as down this season, but no back has gone for over 60 yards against them during their 3 game win streak.

PIT @ BAL – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Game Predictions

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)