NFL Grind Down: Week 16 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-20 20:06:23

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

Kansas City Chiefs						Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Heinz Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	46.5	21.75				-3	46.5	24.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.0	14	20	3		Offense	27.8	6	4	14
Defense	27.8	6	4	14		Defense	23.0	14	20	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Pittsburgh Steelers	27	12	26	23		Kansas City Chiefs	8	9	10	11
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bowe	82	51	0	667		Brown	159	115	11	1498
Avery	26	15	0	176		Bryant	44	24	7	484
Thomas	20	13	0	84		Wheaton	79	48	2	600
Kelce	72	56	5	747		Miller	76	56	3	652

Quick Grind

•Crucial game for both teams
•Target Steelers running game
•Baby Gronk emerging as top TE option?

Kansas City Chiefs

RB Jamaal Charles — $8000 DK — #5 RB— 16% OF CAP — 3.0% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#14 RB)

Narrative Street Alert: Squeaky Wheel!
RADTHAD NARRATIVE STREET INDEX: 9

Jamaal Charles was arguably Week 15’s most disappointing player. Remember when Chiefs coaches were saying that Charles was going to see a heavy workload last week? Yeah, that DIDN’T happen, as Charles saw just 13 touches and was basically removed in favor of #2 RB Knile Davis down the stretch. Of course, Davis proceeded to torch the Raiders for a 70-yard receiving TD, and punch in a short rushing score as well. You could almost taste the tilt in the air at the FFFC as Knile piled up the points that everyone thought would go to JC. Naturally, Charles suggested his coaches were being over-protective of him.

Around these parts, any time a RB makes comments to the media about his workload or usage, we peg them for a bigger workload the following week – and Charles meets that criteria. More importantly, this is a game that the Chiefs MUST have, and Charles is the key to their offense. All signs point to him being fully unleashed on the Steelers this week. Charles is a top-3 RB play and is suitable for all game types.

TE Travis Kelce — $4600 DK — #7 TE — 9.2% OF CAP — 10.4% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#2 TE)

Kelce is our top VALUE TE on RotoWorld this week.

Kelce doesn’t appear to be priced that many spots below Gronk & Graham, but the difference between the 1st and the 7th-most expensive TEs is $2,200. That’s enough salary to turn Jarvis Landry into Calvin Johnson this week.

With last week’s 5-59-1 against the Raiders, Kelce now has two straight weeks of legitimate usage as a featured weapon in the Chiefs offense. Andy Reid has a way of completely abandoning game plans that are working (see also, Charles, Jamaal), but in a pivotal game against the Steelers, Kelce should remain the primary big-play threat in the Chiefs passing attack. As long as Baby Gronk is being schemed the ball on quick hitting routes (like his trademark TE screens), he’ll be an excellent upside play in DFS.

WR Dwayne Bowe — $3200 DK — #60 WR — 6.4% OF CAP — NA% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#NA WR)

Bowe is a limited upside salary relief option against the atrocious Steelers secondary.

Pittsburgh Steelers

RB Le’Veon Bell — $9800 DK — #1 RB— 19.6% OF CAP — 17.7% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#2 RB)

I don’t know what else I can say about Le’Veon Bell at this point. His 119 total yards were actually disappointing the 3-game 200+ yard streak he was on, and the fact that he managed just 47 rushing yards against a wimpy Falcons defense. But Bell made up for it the way he always does, with a Bell-ian 5-72 through the air, and continued TD regression with a pair of scores. The skillset, the workload, and the production. All magnificent.

Don’t you dare think about turning in your Le’Veon Bell Fan Club badge this week just because the Chiefs are coming to town, either. We’ve talked about their misleading DVP before, a ‘paper’ ranking of the 3rd-toughest in the NFL that hides the fact that they’re allowing 105 rushing yards per game to RBs and grade out as the 5th-WORST run defense squad on PFF. The truth is that the Chiefs simply haven’t been the same run defense since being ravaged with injuries to key defenders earlier in the season. Bell’s 4.9 YPC aligns pretty well with the Chiefs 4.9 yards per attempt, and he is poised to absolutely smash yet another defense. Roster him with impunity.

WR Antonio Brown — $8800 DK — #2 WR — 17.6% OF CAP — 11.0% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#8 WR)

It’s getting to the point where I look at Antonio Brown’s Table of Awesomeness and think, ‘nah, that can’t be right’ and have to go back and look at the game logs. Oh, this was his 7th game of 110 or more receiving yards. Neat. Like Bell, there’s not much left to say about Antonio Brown. It would be silly to think even the Chiefs suffocating pass defense could contain Brown, who is a virtual lock for 8-90. If you’re looking for the highest floor of any NFL WR, Brown is your guy.

QB Ben Roethlisberger — $7400 DK — #8 QB — 14.8% OF CAP — 2.6% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#12 QB)

While I always love Antonio Brown, I’m a little more selective about Big Ben. Like last week (27/35, 360 yds, 0 TDs), there will be times when Big Ben just doesn’t need to throw for TDs, or doesn’t connect for long scores with Brown or Bryant. The Chiefs limit QBs to the 6th-fewest FPPG, and also sport the 4th-highest pass-rushing grade, so I would look elsewhere for cash game QBs this week.

WR Martavis Bryant — $4300 DK — #35 WR — 8.6% OF CAP — 3.7% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#24 WR)

Bryant is a perpetual big-play threat but has limited opportunities to make his impact. He’s not worth the risk against this tough pass defense.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Green Bay Packers						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Raymond James Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-10.5	48.5	29.5				10.5	48.5	19
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	31.1	2	3	11		Offense	18.1	27	19	29
Defense	18.1	27	19	29		Defense	31.1	2	3	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24	24	29	15		Green Bay Packers	14	15	24	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Nelson	134	83	12	1320		Evans	110	59	11	948
Cobb	108	76	10	1076		Jackson	134	66	2	931
Adams	62	36	3	429		Herron	12	6	1	58
Quarless	42	27	3	306		Stocker	8	5	0	33

Quick Grind

•The Packers should smash the Bucs
•Target ALL the Packers

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers — $9000 DK — #1 QB — 18% OF CAP — 8.7% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#4 QB)

I tinkered with a few R-E-L-A-X jokes for the Rodgers blurb, but let’s just keep this simple: Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL. This week, he faces an easily exploitable Bucs defense, that allows the 6th-most FPPG and 2nd most passing yards per game to opposing QBs – their pass defense is garbage. One of the NFL’s top offenses is going to roll into Tampa Bay and drop 30+ on the Bucs this week, makings Rodgers a top-3 QB option.

WR Jordy Nelson — $7700 DK — #8 WR — 15.4% OF CAP — 23.7% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#1 WR)

I talked about Nelson, and answered the question, ‘how many words can you pack into a sentence?’, in this week’s WR/TE Grind Down on RotoWorld:

“When Jordy dropped the 94-yard TD that would have salvaged both his, his QB’s, and his team’s day vs the Bills last week, the entire room at FanDuel’s FFFC event let out an audible groan. Having $3 million on the line will do that to a crowd. Jordy will be looking for redemption this week, and is a strong bounceback candidate against a Bucs squad that coughs up the MOST FPPG to opposing WRs and also grades out as Pro Football Focus’s 7th-worst coverage unit. Nelson’s skillset and size should pose an awfully big problem to the Bucs personnel and Cover 2 scheme, who have struggled against other top WRs with prototypical size and/or traits: Kelvin Benjamin methodically bullied the Bucs for 8-104 with his size and leaping ability last week, and Calvin Johnson put on a WR clinic for 8-158-1 in Week 14. An expectation of 100+ yards and a TD is well within reason for Nelson, who is 2nd to only Calvin Johnson at WR this week.”

WR Randall Cobb — $7100 DK — #12 WR — 14.2% OF CAP — 8.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#12 WR)

Brace yourself, because when I recommend Randall Cobb in an excellent slot matchup, Jordy usually drops 100+ and 2 TDs instead. Cobb should terrorize Bucs slot man Leonard Johnson, who has allowed 7 of 8 passes completed for 82 yards and 2 TDs over his last 3 games. Johnson runs 4.62, and simply doesn’t have the agility or athleticism to mirror Cobb. Coming off a 7-96 performance against the Bills, Cobb should again be a high-floor/high-ceiling option that is most valuable on full PPR sites.

RB Eddie Lacy — $7300 DK — #6 RB— 14.6% OF CAP — 8.4% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#7 RB)

Fat Edward surprised last week when he cracked open a strong Bills front for 97 yards and a TD on 15 carries. He should have little problem pounding the soft Bucs defense that grades out as the 2nd-worst run defense squad on PFF and allows the 10th-most FPPG to opposing RBs. Lacy is a multi-TD threat given how easily the Pack should move the ball on this defense, and he should absolutely pile up the fantasy points salting the game after they’ve built a lead. Lacy is a top-5 RB option.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Mike Evans & WR Vincent Jackson
EVANS — $6700 DK — #13 WR — 13.4% OF CAP — 8.8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#10 WR)
VJAX — $5600 DK — #21 WR — 11.2% OF CAP — 3.5% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#26 WR)

Both the Tampa Twin Terrors have been productive in their own ways of late. VJAX has piled up 370 yards over his last 4 games, with 2 games over 115 yards in that span. Evans has a TD in 6 of his last 7 games, and 2 TDs in 3 games over that span. Both WRs are certainly in play against a Packers secondary that continues to give up big plays, and was absolutely trounced for 11-259-1 by Julio Jones in Week 14. Our own Adam Levitan even suggests we ‘game stack’ the whole trio – check out his analysis here.

New York Giants at St. Louis Rams

New York Giants						St. Louis Rams
Sun – 4:05 PM						Edward Jones Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5	43.5	19.25				-5	43.5	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.6	15	10	21		Offense	20.8	19	24	19
Defense	20.8	19	24	19		Defense	22.6	15	10	21
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
St. Louis Rams	9	7	20	2		New York Giants	23	25	8	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Beckham						Bailey	39	27	1	396
Randle	109	59	2	648		Britt	68	35	3	607
Parker	48	31	2	366		Austin	41	29	0	211
Donnell	81	57	6	555		Cook	84	44	3	556

Quick Grind

•Tough matchup for the Giants offense
•Target the Rams running game
•Depth Chart Update: Giants will start RB Andre WIlliams

NY Giants

WR Odell Beckham JR — $9000 DK — #1 WR — 18% OF CAP — 13.8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#5 WR)

We’ve nailed a lot of calls in the #GrindDown this season, but there’s no player I’ve preached harder about than ODB. Last week saw the #GrindDown’s prodigal son reach his peak, painting a 12 catch, 143 yard, 3 TD masterpiece on the canvas that is (or was) the Redskins secondary. He is simply a transcendent talent, and one that I hope you all have benefited from greatly this season.

As for this week, some awfully sharp people have been discussing fading ODB this week (which might actually be a federal offense), so let’s break down the situation. Yes, the Rams have tightened in pass defense of late, but they’ve also played Arizona, Washington, and Oakland in their last 3 games, with just San Diego and Denver the only relevant passing attacks they’ve faced since arguably Week 5 (Eagles). Despite the weak schedule, they still allow the 7th-most FPPG to WRs. The Rams CBs are much better than the drivel the Redskins trot out each week, but they’re of little concern – the only relevant factor is the Rams pass rush. ODB has been held under 130 yards and at least 1 TD only ONCE in his last 4 games, but that game came against the Jags, who own a sneaky-great pass-rush. The Jags harassed the s*&^ out of Eli Manning in that game, limiting his effectiveness and forcing turnovers that ultimately meant ODB saw the fewest targets in a game since Week 7. The Rams pass-rush – especially their defensive line – is completely obnoxious. They can bring outstanding pressure from both the edge and from inside. By the end of next season even people with just a passing interest in defense will know the Rams Big 3 talents on the d-line. This is the long-winded way of saying that the Rams pass-rush should disrupt Eli Manning, which could mean that ODB sees fewer/lower quality opportunities. He has basically become a matchup-proof talent… but his QB and offensive line have not. ODB is still an elite option, but I’ll forgive you if you fade him this week.

QB Eli Manning — $6400 DK — #15 QB — 12.8% OF CAP — 1.5% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#16 QB)

(Queue Captain Planet theme music) When the Redskins and ODB’s powers combine, they form… The illusion that Eli Manning is an elite NFL QB! Unfortunately now Eli runs into the pass-rush buzzsaw described above. Put simply: I would look elsewhere.

RB Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams — $4500 DK — #20 RB— 9% OF CAP — .8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#30 RB)

Jennings was injured AGAIN last week, and Andre Williams took over AGAIN, and Williams’ production was mediocre AGAIN. Jennings is already ruled out for Week 16, leaving Andre with the starter’s gig. He draws a tough matchup with a Rams defense that limits RBs to the 8th-fewest FPPG and has been especially stout of late. Williams does offer solid salary savings, but has limited upside given the matchup.

St. Louis Rams

RB Tre Mason — $4600 DK — #17 RB— 9.2% OF CAP — 16.7% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#3 RB)

Uh oh. When Adam Levitan has a player as his Cover Boy, AND Bryan Fontaine features the same player, you KNOW that player’s one to target. I don’t want to spoil the ending, so click those links to find out why the RG crew is so high on Mason this week.

WR Stedman Bailey — $4900 DK — #28 WR — 9.8% OF CAP — 2.4% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#33 WR)

As usual, Bailey is the Rams receiver I like most this week. He’ll work out of the slot and avoid the coverage of top Giants CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and has at least 5 catches and 74 yards in 3 of his last 4 games. Bailey is best used on full PPR sites, and is the Rams WR to own this week.

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