NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 13, Ravens at Dolphins
Week 13 in the NFL presents a busy 15-game weekend slate, but offers little in the way of obviously high-octane matchups. Many high-scoring teams face good defenses, or are looking at easy wins against outmatched opponents, and lots of road favorites are in less-than-optimal situations. So for this week’s “Matchup of the Week,” our experts break down an interesting matchup between the Ravens and Dolphins. These teams play at quick tempos and have poor defenses, so where will the fantasy points come from? JMToWin, LeoTPP and other RotoGrinders contributors give their thoughts in this weekly matchup breakdown.
JMToWin’s Matchup Focus
For the most part, I see this as a “tournament only” game, but there are a lot of ways in which this game can really churn out some interesting tournament plays.
Typically, of course, I go through these games in something of a “game flow” manner – breaking down how I see each game playing out, and whom I see benefitting as a result.
This week, however, there is enough “up in the air” from a game flow standpoint that what I want to do instead is go player-by-player, taking a look at each fantasy-relevant guy, and breaking down what I like about each one.
Ryan Tannehill: We have to start this game by looking at the quarterback, because that’s what happens when a team faces the Ravens: they attack through the air, and we – as DFSers – take advantage of this by rostering pass game components. Tannehill has had a mediocre season from a real-life perspective, but he has quietly had a solid fantasy season (especially in DFS, where we are primarily concerned with how a QB will do compared to his price). Although the Dolphins fired Bill Lazor this last week in part because they want to run the ball more, this is not the matchup in which the Dolphins are likely to be able to shift to that approach. The Ravens’ strength is stopping the run, and their (extreme) weakness is defending the pass; this should once again lead to a high volume of passes from Tannehill, giving him a high floor to go with the ceiling the Ravens always allow.
Lamar Miller: Although the Dolphins are going to have a hard time running the ball, I do see Miller getting a good 15 carries, along with some pass game work. This is not at all a cash game play, but Miller has shown time and time again just how much upside he has in tournaments; because so few people are going to be looking to roster Miller this weekend, this is a great spot to jump on board on a tournament team or two to see what he can get you.
Jarvis Landry: Last week, Landry exploded for the best game of his career. I said in my Rotoworld article at the beginning of the week that we have to assume the volume will not be there to quite the extent it was last week, as Tannehill is highly unlikely to have to uncork 58 passes this week. As such, I actually plan to stay away from Landry entirely in tournaments, as he rarely hits the type of ceiling that would make you regret fading him – making him the perfect type of guy to stay away from on a week when his ownership is likely to be high (as should be the case this week). With that said: I always like Landry in cash games, as he has one of the highest floors of any wide receiver in the NFL given his skill set and his bankable target volume.
DeVante Parker: A few weeks ago, Parker was watching old college clips of himself to remind himself that he’s good; this week, Parker will have a chance to show it on the field again, as Rishard Matthews is going to be out once more, and Parker will soak up starter’s snaps. Last week, Parker only managed to turn ten targets into four catches, but he also displayed the explosiveness that made him a first-round pick. He is not in play in cash games this week, but his extreme upside against this secondary makes him a very strong play for tourneys.
Javorius Allen: In Week 12, Buck Allen saw more work taken away from him by Terrance West than anyone could have predicted, but he still managed to rack up 12 carries and five targets. This is pretty much his workload floor, and his ceiling is somewhere in the range of 25 carries and six or seven targets. Although his surprising usage in Week 12 takes him out of consideration in cash games, it will also lower his ownership this week; in a great matchup with a severely underperforming Miami Dolphins run defense, Buck’s ceiling is intriguing given the low ownership at which he can probably be rostered.
Kamar Aiken: With Steve Smith out, Aiken is seeing a predictably monstrous workload. He does not have the talent you would like to see from a “number one receiver,” but when a guy priced like Aiken is seeing that type of volume, talent takes a backseat. The Dolphins have struggled all year to slow down the pass, and this should be yet another opportunity for the Dolphins to let down their fans. Aiken has one of the highest point-per-dollar floors of any wide receiver in football, and given his high volume, he is a threat for a multi-touchdown game as well.
Dolphins D: Yes, the Dolphins D. This unit has underperformed this year, but the Browns showed us on Monday night exactly why it is worth taking defenses against the Pick-Six Machine known as Matt Schaub. While the Ravens will surely score some points in this one, we need to remember that the real value in rostering a defense comes from defensive touchdowns. While D/ST touchdowns are impossible to predict, we can predict which defenses are likeliest to score on any given week. For the rest of the season, whichever defense is playing Matt Schaub will be among those “likeliest to score.”
This is a game that will go largely overlooked in the fantasy community, which means there will be some sneaky upside to be found here. Dig around, and see what you come up with yourself!
LeoTPP’s Grind Down
The Odds
Normally this column considers a game with a high total and a close spread, as those conditions are more favorable for fantasy success. However, this weekend there are not many appealing games when looking at the Vegas odds. The games with the biggest over/under totals also have big spreads, implying a blowout is on its way, and only one team will feature worthwhile fantasy options. So while the Ravens and Dolphins are only expected to total 43.5 points, Miami is a relatively narrow 3.5-point favorite. This means we can anticipate a 24-20 type of final score as implied by the odds, which means there should still be a handful of touchdowns on the board.
Matchups by the Numbers
By any measure, the Dolphins and Ravens are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. When we consider Football Outsiders and their “weighted defense” rankings, which favor recent performances more than games from earlier in the season, we find both teams ranked in the bottom ten in the league in overall defensive efficiency. Both teams play at top-ten paces, as well, meaning there should be a healthy amount of plays run against bad defenses. This is an excellent fantasy situation at a glance, and digging into the matchup numbers provide even more reasons for optimism.
When it comes to stopping the pass, these are two of the worst teams in the NFL. Using Football Outsiders DVOA as a barometer, the Ravens rank 26th against the pass, while the Dolphins are 27th. If we pivot to numberFire data, the Ravens are 17th, and the Dolphins are 31st. And if we consider the actual production allowed, which matters most to fantasy players, we find that the Ravens and Dolphins rank fourth and ninth in points allowed to quarterbacks, and second and tenth in points allowed to wideouts, respectively. These two teams are among the top ten in passer rating allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and rank sixth (Ravens) and seventh (Dolphins) in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt allowed, one of the best all-around passing game metrics. This is a very favorable matchup for both passing games.
On the ground, the story is slightly different. Because while the Dolphins rank 25th in DVOA against the run and have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, the Ravens have a respectable run defense. Baltimore ranks 13th in DVOA against the run, but eighth in numberFire’s run defense rankings, and have allowed the seventh-fewest points to the position on the season. Teams know not to run against the Ravens, as Baltimore has faced 79 fewer rushing attempts, and has allowed a half a yard less per carry than their opponents this weekend.
Players to Target
Baltimore: Since the Dolphins are equally poor against the run and pass, we can target any sort of player against the Miami defense. However, since the Ravens are on the road and projected to score right around 20 points, we shouldn’t go crazy when rostering players from this offense. It’s highly unlikely that both the running and passing games will have a big day, and also doubtful that we’ll see multiple receivers have tournament-winning fantasy totals.
In the passing game, Matt Schaub is cheap, but also offers limited upside and big turnover potential. We don’t lose extra points if Schaub allows an interception to be returned for a touchdown, but at some point, all of those pick sixes have to start to break down the confidence of even an experienced passer like Schaub. The former Atlanta and Houston signal caller was otherwise solid in his first start for Baltimore, completing nearly 60% of his passes for 232 yards and two scores. If he’s able to stay over 200 yards and two touchdowns, and can limit the turnovers, he’ll be a viable daily fantasy play at his cheap price.
Schaub targeted Kamar Aiken more often than any other wideout, continuing a trend started by previous starter Joe Flacco. Aiken’s target totals over the past four weeks are 6, 14, 8 and 10, and even if he’s only hauling in half of those looks, he should still gain a nice chunk of yards. Five receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown would be a solid day at his salary, and anything beyond that (against a defense that has allowed 60+ yards and a touchdown to an opposing wideout seven times this season) would be tournament dollars in our pockets. It’s tough to trust any other wideouts for Baltimore, and tight end Crockett Gillmore did not get off to a hot start with his new QB. The Dolphins have been respectable against tight ends, anyway (20th in fantasy points allowed), so stick to Aiken when targeting a Baltimore pass catcher.
On the ground, Javorius Allen will be the lead back for this offense through the end of the season, and while Terrance West will dig into his volume a bit, Baltimore needs to see what they have in the rookie from USC. The man otherwise known as “Buck” has been a regular in the passing game since he started getting more snaps about a month ago, and should see a solid number of carries as well against a defense ill-equipped to stop the run. West’s presence is worrisome, but I am willing to play Allen in cash games at the right price (and in a PPR format), and love him in tournaments.
Miami: For Miami, the running game will be tougher to target, but arguably the most talented player on either offense lines up for the Dolphins, and that’s Lamar Miller. He is very easily taken out of the game, but is also capable of breaking a big play as a runner or receiver at any time. Still, with such a tough matchup, and with such uncertain volume, he’s nearly impossible to trust in a daily fantasy lineup you have to pay to enter.
So instead, we turn our attention to the passing game, where Jarvis Landry leads the way with an insane floor (especially in PPR formats) thanks to his role as the primary focus of an offense as a slot receiver running short, crisp routes. Landry has double-digit targets in three of his last four starts, and in seven games so far this season, and should see another 10+ looks against the Ravens. Baltimore is generally poor at defending wideouts, and while their best corner (according to Pro Football Focus’ grades) plays in the slot (Ladarius Webb), he’s still not capable of checking Landry on a play-by-play basis. As JMToWin mentions above, Landry will be popular, and there’s reason to fade him in a GPP setting, but for cash games, in PPR formats, there are few more consistent and appealing than Landry.
Outside of Landry, Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker are the two players to keep an eye on against Baltimore. Stills comes and goes as a contributor to the Miami offense, but has big-play ability, and could break a huge gain or two against a terrible Baltimore defense. And when a team is firing coaches left and right and resigned to their fate as a top-10 draft pick sort of team, giving rookies like Parker a chance in favorable matchups is a good way to “see what they’ve got” in the young talent from Louisville. Both are viable GPP plays, especially if you’re stacking up with the quarterback.
That quarterback is, of course, Ryan Tannehill, who is tough to recommend, but also tough to ignore. He threw the ball 58 times last week, a feat he’s unlikely to accomplish again this season, and that volume led to a great fantasy output. And outside of an odd two-game spell in the middle of the season, Tannehill has been good for two or more passing touchdowns in every game since Week 1, and has upside for three or four scores and over 300 yards passing. The Ravens have allowed 300+ passing yards and 2+ passing touchdowns to five quarterbacks this year, and we could see a sixth when Tannehill and company are forced to take it to the air to avoid the tough run defense they’ll find themselves matched up against.
What Our Experts Are Saying
Notorious’ FanDuel Expert Pick
Every week, top-ranked Notorious provides picks for the NFL slate on FanDuel, providing high-priced studs, mid-range players with upside, and bargain plays to help you build a lineup for any kind of contest.
Jarvis Landry: A lot of people are going to see Landry’s game against the Jets and want to play him again this week. We typically like to call that “chasing points.” While I generally try to avoid this as often as possible, I don’t like Landry because of his big game in Week 12. I like him because of his opportunity and matchup for Week 13. He draws a fantastic matchup against the Ravens, who are stout against the run, but awful against the pass. He may also see a few extra targets this week, as Rishard Mathews has been ruled out with fractured ribs.
RotoMonkey’s Contrarian Corner
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Matt Schaub: If you’re looking to scrape the bottom of the quarterback barrel this week and take a quarterback that few will be on, Schaub might just be the guy for you. He was decent against Cleveland, throwing for 232 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He gets an equally awful Miami defense this week, and I expect him to have success once again. With Schaub under center and a banged up receiving corps, the Ravens were still content to throw the ball much more than they ran it on Monday night. I expect the same going forward, and while I’m not seeing an eye-popping performance in Schaub’s future, I do think he makes for a worthwhile value play if that’s what you’re looking for this week.