NFL Pick'em Pool Picks Week 1: Straight Up & Against the Spread
We are only days away from kickoff of the 2021 NFL season on September 9 in Tampa Bay, which means NFL pick’em pools are on many people’s minds once again. In preparation for the upcoming fall, we will be offering some weekly advice and best practices for how to approach each of these formats.
There are multiple formats for pick’em tournaments, including picking against the spread and ranking selections in confidence intervals. In this column, we will touch on both the classic style and picking against the spread.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks, then Matt Schmitto will break down his five picks against the spread using NFL Week 1 odds from DraftKings Sportsbook’s $4M Pro Football Millionaire.
NFL Week 1 Pick’em Pool Picks: Tips, Strategy
Week 1 Selections
1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Green Bay Packers
4. New England Patriots
5. Washington Football Team
6. Kansas City Chiefs
7. Houston Texans
8. Buffalo Bills
9. Carolina Panthers
10. Baltimore Ravens
11. San Francisco 49ers
12. Arizona Cardinals
13. Atlanta Falcons
14. Seattle Seahawks
15. Cincinnati Bengals
16. Denver Broncos
Rams (vs. Bears)
If the Rams had a legitimate threat at the quarterback position last season, it is entirely possible that they would have met the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl in February. Heading into this fall, the addition of Matthew Stafford puts this team in the conversation with the Buccaneers and the Packers to win the NFC Championship. Los Angeles has an incredibly favorable matchup in Week 1 against Andy Dalton and a very beatable Chicago Bears secondary.
Buccaneers (vs. Cowboys)
The Cowboys have done very little to improve their roster this off-season. Of course, there is the argument that the return of Dak Prescott will ignite an offense with some of the most tantalizing potential in the league. Yet, Dallas was only 1-3 in games that Prescott started in 2020. In Week 1, the Cowboys will be without their best offensive lineman, Zach Martin. Tampa Bay should win the trench-war in this contest with ease. Expect Tom Brady and company to win this game comfortably on Thursday night.
Packers (vs. Saints)
There was certainly a lot of media attention surrounding Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this summer, which has possibly dampened the public’s expectations for this group. It is somewhat surprising that Green Bay is only a small favorite in their opening matchup against the Jameis Winston-led Saints. Rogers was the highest graded signal caller in the NFL last year, according to Pro Football Focus. If the offensive line can handle the absence of left tackle David Bakhtiari, the Packers should be able to handle New Orleans on the road to begin the campaign.
Patriots (vs. Dolphins)
Are you sick of the Mac Jones hype train? If so, get yourself something to help with your symptoms because the excitement around Jones is only going to grow as the season progresses. After an excellent exhibition showing, he gets to take on a Miami defense that ranked 20th in total yards allowed per game in 2020, including ranking 23rd against the pass. New England’s defense ranked 15th in total yards allowed per game last fall, despite missing a number of key players, who opted-out of the season due to COVID-concerns. The Patriots should take care of business at home in this one.
Football Team (vs. Chargers)
It might be a bold take prior to Week 1, but Washington is the most talented team in the NFC East. They are also the best-coached team in that division. Justin Herbert shined as a rookie for the Chargers, breaking numerous NFL rookie records. However, he will be facing a ferocious defense on Sunday in our nation’s capital. Herbert might be the best starting quarterback in this game, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has a better matchup and is more than capable of exploiting a relatively weak Los Angeles defense. Expect Washington to get the job done playing at home.
Chiefs (vs. Browns)
The Browns took the Chiefs down to the wire in Arrowhead Stadium in the Division Round of last year’s postseason, losing 22-17 after failing to get Kansas City off of the field late in the game on fourth down. Cleveland returns “(player-popup #odell-beckham)Odell Beckham Jr to the lineup for this highly-anticipated Week 1 battle, but the Chiefs are still the better football team in this matchup and have the benefit of home-field advantage. As good as Baker Mayfield can be, Patrick Mahomes is a far-superior option at quarterback. There is a reason that oddsmakers have made Kansas City a touchdown favorite in this game.
Texans (vs. Jaguars)
Unquestionably, the Texans are worse-off with Tyrod Taylor under center on Sunday rather than Deshaun Watson. Yet, while Taylor is not the best option to go win a team a football game, he is also unlikely to be the reason that his team loses. Houston has a better overall roster compared to Jacksonville. If Taylor can simply take care of the football and execute short passing plays on third down, Trevor Lawrence should still be seeking his first career NFL victory when he laces up his cleats in Week 2.
Schmitto’s NFL Week 1 Picks Against The Spread
Cowboys at Buccaneers -7.5
Current Consensus Line: Buccaneers -8.5
I was initially planning on playing the Cowboys as a somewhat contrarian play but the news that they’ll be missing Zach Martin, the Cowboys’ guard and arguably best player, forced me to switch sides. While the Cowboys offensive line loses Martin, the Bucs have cleared Ndamukong Suh from their COVID-19 list, which is why we’ve seen oddsmakers move this line to Bucs -8.5 on the eve of Thursday Night Football. I’ll happily lay the 7.5 points when the market is saying 8.5 — that’s what we call Closing Line Value (CLV).
PICK: Bucs -8.5
Broncos -2.5 at Giants
Current Consensus Line: Broncos -3
We can’t measure CLV until Sunday, and it’s unlikely oddsmakers will stretch this spread beyond a field goal, but if the game were kicking off right now (Thursday), there would definitely be value on Broncos -2.5.
Conveniently, I was already eyeing the Broncos. I’m not saying they’re a playoff team, but I’ve written extensively about how I’m more bullish on them than the market, and like them to go over their season win total. Broncos head coach Vic Fangio named Teddy Bridgewater the starter a couple of weeks ago, a decision I absolutely endorse. Not because I think Bridgewater will light it up, but because I’m confident he will protect the ball. The Broncos don’t have the best offense but they do have some playmakers. Paired with a a top-five defense led by Von Miller, Bradley Chubb and top-ten draft pick Patrick Surtain, Bridgewater & Co. should find the end zone enough to cover this spread, even while playing on the road.
PICK: Broncos -2.5
Packers -3.5 vs. Saints
Current Consensus Line: Packers -4.5
The Packers were originally scheduled to kick off their season in the Superdome, which isn’t the easiest place to play. Unfortunately, mother nature forced the NFL to move this game to Jacksonville. It may be a neutral site but cheeseheads travel well (or maybe they’re just everywhere). Jacksonville is closer to New Orleans than Green Bay but I expect this to be more of a home crowd environment for the Packers. Worth noting is that the consensus line has lengthened to -4.5. Whether I’m right or wrong about the crowd, that’s enough value for me to back the Pack.
PICK: Packers -3.5
Browns at Chiefs -6.5
Current Consensus Line: Chiefs -6.5
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are ridiculous, and especially so in the month of September. In fact, Mahomes has yet to lose a game during the first month of football and he’s a very profitable 8-2 against the spread. Remarkably, the gunslinger has thrown 32 touchdowns yet not a single interception in September. This is one of the reasons why I love betting on the Chiefs during the first half of the season. What we’ve seen in the past is that the Chiefs will dominate early, get a comfortable division lead in the AFC West, and then save their tricks for the playoffs. I’m betting on the Chiefs early and often, but will be prepared to pull back as we get closer to the halfway mark.
PICK: Chiefs -6.5
Chargers at Washington +0.5
Current Consensus Line: Washington +1
A ferocious defense led the Washington Football Team to an NFC East title in 2020, and nearly helped upset the eventual Super Bowl champs in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. If Washington had Ryan Fitzpatrick playing quarterback at the time, the Bucs might not have survived the road trip to the nation’s capital. This year Fitzmagic is in the air, and the Chargers have offensive line concerns, which don’t bode well for their Week 1 matchup against last season’s defensive rookie of the year, Chase Young.
PICK: Washington +0.5
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