NFL Pick'em Pool Week 11 Confidence Rankings and Picks (2021)
After going 10-6 in both Week 1 and Week 2, we delivered a 15-1 Week 3 performance. We regressed slightly in Week 4 due to some late-week injuries and a few very surprising upsets, but rebounded for a strong 13-3 outing, including hitting each of our top 10 confidence plays in Week 5. We stayed hot with a 9-5 record in Week 6 and a 10-3 showing in Week 7. We had a disappointing 8-7 showing in Week 8. Despite three major upsets in Week 9, we still managed to post a 9-5 record. In Week 10, we finally had our first losing week, owing to the fact that there were a number of late-week injury reports that went against our Thursday expectations. In Week 11, We will look to get back to our winning ways as we reveal our Week 11 NFL Pick’em selections!
There are multiple formats for pick’em tournaments, including the picking against the spread and ranking selections in confidence intervals. In this column, we will touch on both the classic style and picking against the spread each week.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks. Also, don’t miss my Week 11 if you’re still alive in your eliminator pools!
NFL Week 11 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
Week 11 Selections
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
Dallas Cowboys
Los Angeles Chargers
Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers
Minnesota Vikings
Las Vegas Raiders
Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers
Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints
Cleveland Browns
Buccaneers (vs. Giants)
Tampa Bay burned us and a lot of people last week with an inexplicably awful showing against the hapless Washington Football Team. Tom Brady had his worst game of the season, throwing for only 220 passing yards and two interceptions—though only one of the interceptions was his fault. Head Coach Bruce Arians completely abandoned the running game after falling behind 13-0 early in the contest, which only made it more difficult for the Buccaneers’ passing attack. Fortunately, Tampa Bay has a perfect opportunity to “get right” in Week 11 against the New York Giants. New York ranks 25th in opponent yards-per-carry this fall. Expect Arians to commit to more than 12 touches for his running backs in this one, and for an emphasis on the rushing attack to open up the passing attack for Brady and company. The Buccaneers should win this game easily.
Patriots (vs. Falcons)
We have been on the Mac Jones hype train since the preseason, when we encouraged bettors to place a wager on Jones to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +450 odds. On Thursday, New England has a good opportunity to extend their current win streak to five games when they travel to Atlanta to take on one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, there are strong arguments to be made that the Patriots have the best unit in the entire NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have a dreadful 75.7 passer rating and a 59.7 completion percentage against the Patriots this season. Matt Ryan has thrown for 146 yards or less in two of the last three weeks. Having only Kyle Pitts as a reliable pass-catcher, and a mediocre offensive line in front of him, Ryan and the Falcons could be in a lot of trouble in Week 11. The Patriots are a strong play in this one.
Bills (vs. Colts)
Week 9 was a glitch in the system for the NFL, with the Bills and Cowboys both losing, despite being double-digit favorites. All returned to normal in Week 10, with the Bills defeating the New York Jets 45-17 and the Cowboys defeating the Falcons 43-3. Josh Allen was outstanding against New York, totaling 366 passing yards and a 75.0 percent completion rate. Carson Wentz and Jonathan Taylor have been extremely strong in recent weeks, but the Bills will be unquestionably their toughest matchup of the season. Buffalo’s secondary unit has held opposing quarterbacks to only six touchdowns against 15 interceptions this fall—resulting in a horrendous 60.7 passer rating. Buffalo is a touchdown favorite in this contest for a reason.
Cowboys (vs. Chiefs)
The Kansas City Chiefs are not “back” simply because they defeated a reeling Las Vegas Raiders team in a prime time affair. The Cowboys had a far less sexy time slot in Week 10, but had their own impressive performance that went under the radar—defeating the Falcons by 40 points. The Chiefs are still one of the worst defenses in the NFL, no matter how good Cris Collinsworth told viewers their defense was on Sunday Night Football. Kansas City has allowed an opposing quarterback passer rating of 99.5 this season, and has allowed opponents to post 4.6 yards-per-carry on the ground. Dallas has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Cowboys are also extremely deep at receiver and have a superior defense to the Chiefs. Do not pay the Mahomes tax in Week 11. The wrong team is favored.
Chargers (vs. Steelers)
Whether or not Ben Roethlisberger plays this Sunday has very little impact on the Pittsburgh Steelers’ passing attack. There are some concerns for Los Angeles in this one, owing to a run defense that is permitting a league-worst 4.8 yards-per-carry on the ground. However, playing a weak passing attack, led either by Mason Rudolph or Roethlisberger, should enable the Chargers to stack the box more than usual to mitigate that vulnerability. Despite losing to the Minnesota Vikings last week, the Chargers are one of the better football teams in the league. This is a great opportunity for them to get back in the win column.
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