NFL Player Props for Christmas Slate (12/25)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Chris Rodriguez Jr., Max Brosmer, and RJ Harvey? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for the NFL Christmas Day slate on December 25th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NFL plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Christmas! The NFL’s 3-game holiday slate didn’t turn out exactly how they had hoped, with backup quarterbacks Josh Johnson, Max Brosmer, and Chris Oladokun each slated to start on Thursday.
Looking at the NFL odds for Thursday, the consequence of each game featuring a backup quarterback is that none of the matchups are expected to be particularly competitive, with the Cowboys, Lions, and Broncos each favored by at least a touchdown.
That being said, while the entertainment value and overall head-to-head competitiveness might have taken a hit with the injuries to Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy, and Patrick Mahomes, there is certainly still some betting value to be had in the scheduled matchups.
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for the NFL on Christmas!
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Best NFL Player Props for Christmas Day
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 25th:
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. Over/Under 53.5 Rushing Yards
- Max Brosmer Over/Under 17.5 Completions
- RJ Harvey Over/Under 49.5 Rushing Yards
Chris Rodriguez Jr. OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
BET365This pick hinges a lot on the availability of DT Quinnen Williams, so bettors who are available in the 90 minutes between inactives and kickoff should wait for confirmation of his status. Prior to acquiring Williams in Week 11, the Dallas run defense ranked 31st in success rate. From Week 11 to Week 15, the Cowboys run defense improved to 13th in success rate. Then, with Williams inactive in Week 16, the unit took a big step backwards – allowing Omarion Hampton to average 5.3 yards per carry.
In the last 4 games that Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been active, he’s been the clear lead option in Washington’s backfield. He has nearly double the number of attempts as Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and nobody has come close to Rodriguez’s 47.1% success rate.
Rodriguez should be able to find some running room if Williams ends up inactive or limited on Thursday.
Max Brosmer OVER 17.5 Completions (-123, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSThis line seems borderline criminally mispriced, given the matchup. Max Brosmer hasn’t done anything to inspire confidence from the betting community in his 2 appearances in 2025, but everything is about price – and in this case, the price is very palatable.
In his first start of the year against the Seahawks, Brosmer threw 4 interceptions and had one of the worst games in NFL history by a quarterback, but he still completed 19 passes. This past weekend against the Giants, he completed 7 of 9 attempts after J.J. McCarthy went down with an injury.
Detroit’s pass defense has not been good of late, ranking 23rd in EPA/play and 16th in success rate since CB Terrion Arnold last played a full allotment of snaps in Week 9. If Minnesota commits to a low-aDOT approach with Brosmer on Thursday, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him have some level of success.
RJ Harvey OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards (-118, BetMGM)
BETMGMSince J.K. Dobbins went down with a season-ending injury in Week 10, there has been little debate about who is the top option in Denver’s ground game. Across their last 5 games, Harvey has received 67 of the 94 attempts that have gone to the running back position, including 16 of 20 attempts inside the red zone and 5 of the 6 goal-line carries.
This past weekend, the Chiefs allowed Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears to combine for 154 rushing yards on 34 attempts (4.53 yards per carry). Harvey should have plenty of running room against a Kansas City team that appears to be in full tank mode.
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