Best NFL Week 15 Player Props at Online Sportsbooks
Week 14 was pretty disappointing. My favorite prop pick, Myles Gaskin, was ruled out after the article was published and then we split the other two picks. D.K. Metcalf never really needed to catch a football in the second half as the Seahawks routed the Jets. Who else is happy that 2020 is nearly in the rear-view mirror? Sheesh. In any event, we have a smaller slate to sift through this week for potential prop winners. Here are my favorite NFL prop picks for Week 15.
Make sure to check out our Week 15 Betting Lines and Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into the action at online sportsbooks. Let’s get started.
NFL Week 15 Player Props — QB Pick
Deshaun Watson Over/Under 265.5 Passing Yards
Deshaun Watson finds his way back to the article in a far more appealing matchup against the Colts on the road. At the time of this writing, the Colts are six-point favorites versus their floundering division rivals. The Colts are poised for a playoff berth behind a strong defense and a commitment to running the football with the budding star, Jonathan Taylor.
My biggest fear is that the Colts salt away the game clock all game long against a putrid Texans’ rush defense. The Texans should be scripted to throw the ball early and often with a near non-existent threat for a running game. Playing in Chicago against a relatively stout Bears’ defense with limited weapons felt like the ideal time to buy on Watson’s under. This week, with the likely return of Brandin Cooks and playing indoors against the Colts, feels like a good time to buy the over on a lower number.
Just two weeks ago, Watson threw for 341 yards at home against the Colts. In a potentially heavier pass-script, I don’t see many reasons not to jump on this over. The major allure comes from FanDuel setting this line at 265.5 passing yards with competing online betting sites offering a line around 270.5 yards. Take the discount at FanDuel. I will!
My Pick: Over 265.5 Passing Yards -112 at FanDuel
NFL Week 15 Player Props — RB Pick
Alvina Kamara Over/Under 6.5 Receptions
Alvin Kamara vaulted from strong DFS option in Week 15 to must-play when the news broke that Drew Brees would be starting against the Chiefs but Michael Thomas would be ruled out. Kamara is a target-hog when Michael Thomas does not play — garnering a heap of the veteran quarterback’s attention. The Saints are home underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs. For the Saints to win, Kamara will need to put together a superstar-caliber performance.
During the Michael Thomas-less stretch in 2020 with Drew Brees under center, Kamara saw 64 targets over 7 games. He caught 55 of his targets for an outstanding 86% catch-rate. A similar catch-rate on Sunday would result in plenty of catches if Kamara sees double-digit targets.
The Chiefs sit in the bottom half of the league in targets allowed to the running back position while allowing 24.5 DraftKings PPG to the position. While I do not create my own projections, I would give a player of Kamara’s caliber a bump in the highest-profile game of the week. Truthfully, I don’t mind any of Kamara’s props across online betting sites but would be sure to shop around for the best number and best price. At the time of this writing, my favorite prop is definitely the over on this receptions prop at BetMGM. The line is similar elsewhere, but you will not find plus-money anywhere else.
If you want this prop, jump on it as soon as possible before price-shoppers move the vig unfavorably.
My Pick: Over 6.5 Receptions +105 at BetMGM
NFL Week 15 Player Props — WR Pick
Brandon Aiyuk Over/Under 74.5 Receiving Yards
Brandon Aiyuk is producing at a high-level out of necessity for the San Francisco 49ers. The rookie’s number keeps getting called as the 49ers roster continues to become the NFL’s 2020 edition of an infirmary. Despite all of the injury woes, the 49ers find themselves with an outside shot at the playoffs — traveling to Dallas to beat a very beatable Cowboys’ team.
Over the last 5 weeks, Aiyuk saw 7, 11, 14, 9, and 16 targets and went over this receiving number each week. Barring a Cistaro jinx, Aiyuk should see even more attention with Deebo Samuel out in Week 15 with his hamstring injury. The Cowboys have allowed 2151 receiving yards to the wide receiver position on only 160 catches. The potential for splash plays is there for Aiyuk, playing in a dome in a game that both teams must win.
Betting sites seem to have this prop pretty close to the aforementioned 74.5 yards. At the time of this writing, BetMGM has a -110 price attached to the over. I will buy another prop on BetMGM to round out my Week 15 card.
My Pick: Over 74.5 Receiving Yards -110 at BetMGM.
Good luck in Week 15! Share your prop picks with Joe on Twitter @JoeCistaro.
2020 NFL Player Props Record: 26 – 15
Net Units on One-Unit Bets: +8.82
Image Credit: Imagn