NFL Preseason Betting Tips: Hall of Fame Game Breakdown
The first NFL preseason game of 2019 kicks off Thursday night as the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos travel to Canton, Ohio to play in the annual Hall of Fame Game.
Though the regular season doesn’t begin for five more weeks, there’s plenty of NFL preseason betting to be had between now and September 5.
Editor’s note: For those interested in PA online sports betting, FanDuel PA online sportsbook went live July 22, 2019.
We’ll break down everything you need to know before placing your NFL preseason bets for the Hall of Fame Game. Also be sure to read our NFL preseason betting strategy guide to find out why betting during the NFL preseason differs from traditional NFL betting.
NFL Preseason Betting Breakdown
Hall of Fame Game Stats
Of the last 11 Hall of Fame Games, six have closed with 3-point spreads, while no game has had larger than a 4.5-point spread.
Underdogs are 5-4-2 during that span.
The Over/Under has been as low as 31.5 points and only one game has had higher than a 37 point total. That was Miami vs. Dallas in 2013. Dallas won 44-40.
In total, Under bettors have gone 8-3 in the last 11 Hall of Fame Games.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos -3, Over/Under 34
Denver Broncos Player News
The Denver Broncos drafted Missouri’s Drew Lock in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, but it’s Kevin Hogan who gets the start. Hogan, who was drafted in 2015 and started four games for the Washington Redskins in 2017, entered training camp as Joe Flacco’s backup. That could change if Lock impresses during the preseason.
Hogan completed 61 percent of his passes in 2017, throwing four touchdowns and five interceptions. Tonight his competition will be much more like what he faced last preseason when he threw for 272 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions against the Baltimore Ravens. Hogan completed 64 percent of his passes during the 2018 preseason. Lock gets the luxury of facing the bottom of the barrel in Thursday night’s game.
Denver will play without their top two tight ends.
Atlanta Falcons Player News
Expect 2018 undrafted free agent Kurt Benkert to get the majority of the snaps for the Atlanta Falcons. Benkert will have to show drastic improvement for the Falcons to improve on their 0-4 2018 preseason record. Last preseason, Benkert completed only 43 percent of his passes and threw four interceptions in just 64 attempts
Coaches Talk
Atlanta’s head coach Dan Quinn doesn’t have the best preseason record against the spread. In four seasons, Quinn’s teams have gone 4-12 ATS in NFL preseason games. Interestingly, Quinn is taking over the defensive play-calling for the Falcons this season.
Making his head coaching debut, Denver’s head coach Vic Fangio doesn’t have a preseason record.
What do the coaches have to say about the Hall of Fame Game matchup?
Dan Quinn: “It’s really important for the rookies. We’ve got an advantage that thirty teams don’t have, where they get really good game experience. Of course, it’s a really important day for the 25 or so rookies.”
To me, the development players, guys that we really spent a lot of time on last year, the Matt Gonos of the world, Kurt Benkerts, who it’s like, ‘Man, we’ve put a good 13 months into him, let’s see where we’re at.”- AJC.com
Vic Fangio: “I just really want to see all of them, to be honest with you..This was Practice (No.) 11 so it’s going to be nice to go out there and go against somebody else, play live football and see where these young guys are at.”
“If I’m pretty confident they might be throwing it, instead of giving a corner some help, I’ll see if he can cover his guy. Or I’ll play a lightbox even though we think they may be running it to see if we can handle it.”- Denver Post
Both teams are only two weeks into training camp and have had only a handful of padded workouts.
From the sounds of it, both coaches are approaching the Hall of Fame Game the way past coaches have. The overwhelming majority of regular-season projected starters won’t see the field. Quinn and Fangio will use the game to evaluate players at the bottom fighting for a roster spot.
That kind of approach is one explanation for why Under bets have hit at nearly a 73 percent clip in recent Hall of Fame Games.
NFL Preseason Line Shopping
The game opened as a pick’em at William Hill Sportsbook, but the line has moved in Denver’s favor by 2.5 or 3 points at most online sports betting sites.
As is the case anytime you bet on sports, shopping for the best lines is a vital practice to help you build your betting bankroll. Let us save you the hassle:
If you want Atlanta plus the points: Atlanta +3 (use our FanDuel promo code to get these odds).
If you want Denver minus the points: Denver -2.5 (use our William Hill promo code to get these odds)
If you want the Over: You can bet Over 34 at most sportsbooks, including FanDuel.
If you want the Under: With a little bit of line shopping, you can bet Under 34.5 (use our BetStars promo code to get these odds)
Editor’s note: All odds referenced are accurate at the time of publication. Odds are subject to change.
As for me, I’ll be betting Under 34.5 and Denver moneyline -136 (BetStars). I don’t put too much stock into Quinn’s past preseason record ATS, but judging by Benkert’s 2017 preseason performance, Denver should have superior quarterback play. Atlanta is unlikely to play any starters while Fangio indicates a few younger starters on the offensive line will see snaps. I don’t think either team will look sharp this early, so I’ll ride the Under wave that has flooded recent NFL preseason Hall of Fame Games.
If you’re looking for general NFL betting tips, please refer to our NFL football betting tips guide
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images