NFL PrizePicks Predictions Week 1: Chase, Smith, and Young Make Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 1 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, one of the best DFS sites for NFL pick’em, lays out player projections for us, which we stack to create entries that pay real money. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create an entry. Use the PrizePicks promo code “GRINDERS” to get $50 on a $5 entry if you haven’t signed up already!
For NFL Week 1, we’ll look at the board and see what usage, game flow, Vegas, and — of course — our projections can tell us about how players are likely to produce. We’ll look at passing, rushing, and receiving categories most weeks. For the best ways to attack standard projections as the base for our tickets, use our pick’em tool to get more PrizePicks picks today. In this space, we’re mainly gonna look at DEMON projections to boost our payouts.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 1
- JaMarr Chase MORE Than 0.5 TDs [DEMON]
- Geno Smith MORE Than 274.5 Pass Yards [DEMON]
- Bryce Young MORE Than 239.5 Pass Yards [DEMON] and MORE Than 16.5 Rush Yards [DEMON]
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Bengals vs. Patriots PrizePicks Predictions
JaMarr Chase 0.5 TDs (DEMON)
We’re not gonna attack TD projections very much because they’re high variance, but — boy, are they fun — and this is a tough one to pass up. JaMarr Chase is a touchdown machine when Joe Burrow is throwing him footballs. The Bengals have a 24.75 implied total, and Chase is their primary method for getting into the end zone, especially with no more Joe Mixon in the mix. The Bengals are -9 favorites with a huge blowout ceiling, and Chase is the most likely way that the Bengals build up the blowout. We have Chase projected for 0.6 TDs.
- PLAY: Chase MORE Than 0.5 TDs (DEMON)
Seahawks vs. Broncos PrizePicks Predictions
Geno Smith 274.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)
I’m a bit scared of utilizing the Seahawks offense to make money with a defensive guru at the helm, but I don’t fear what our projections have to offer. Geno Smith is coming off of a season where he did Geno Smith things. He completed nearly 65% of his passes for over 240 yards per game, so we should expect this baseline for most of the season, right?
I’m not so sure.
The Seahawks hired Ryan Grubb to run the offense after turning the University of Washington into one of the most pass-heavy offenses in college football. If we up Smith’s volume, coupled with his efficiency and mistake prevention, our 262.3-yard projection starts to make a lot of sense. Add the receiving weapons that Smith possesses in DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett, and we can see some interesting spike weeks from Smith. Why not against the terrible Broncos?
This play is tight, but we should squeeze in some exposure.
- PLAY: Smith MORE Than 274.5 Pass Yards (DEMON)
Panthers vs. Saints PrizePicks Predictions
Bryce Young 239.5 Pass Yards (DEMON) + 16.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
Bryce Young isn’t any damn good, but he will be throwing a lot all season, starting in Week 1 in New Orleans. If this game were in Carolina, I’d be more prudent, but the dome in New Orleans is historically a great place for offense. The Panthers should get down in this game early, so Young should get a ton of volume. So much so that we have him projected for 224.3 passing yards and 13.4 rushing yards. The difference between 225 passing yards and 240, as well as 13 rushing yards and 17, is really tiny, so we can get there on both plays in just a couple of events.
- PLAY: Young MORE Than 239.5 Pass Yards (DEMON) and MORE Than 16.5 Rush Yards (DEMON)
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