NFL PrizePicks Week 11 Predictions: Kelce, Kirk, & Lockett Make Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 11 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, a DFS Pick’em site, lays out player projections for us to stack on a ticket for user-created entries. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create a contest. If you haven’t tried it yet, use the PrizePicks referral code “GRINDERS” to get a deposit match up to $100.
For NFL Week 11, we’ll look at the board and see what usage, gameflow, Vegas, and — of course — our projections can tell us about how players are likely to produce. We’ll look at passing, rushing, and receiving categories most weeks.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 11
- Travis Kelce MORE than 70.5 receiving yards
- Christian Kirk MORE than 57.5 receiving yards
- Tyler Lockett MORE than 58.5 receiving yards
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Travis Kelce MORE Than 70.5 Receiving Yards
Playing the Eagles isn’t easy, but at least the Chiefs are at home and the Eagles have given up nearly 50 YPG to TEs to start the season. They are tougher on the outside than up the middle, so a lot could funnel in the direction of Travis Kelce.
There is the issue of Kelce only surpassing 70 yards twice this season, but in a competitive affair against a strong defense, the Chiefs should lean on Kelce more than ever. The tough matchup is, therefore, almost good for us to knock his 70.5-yard projection out of the park.
We have Kelce projected at 78.54 yards, but the gap between his skill and the rest of the receiving corps is so wide that we should see elite volume here. Like, the Chiefs aren’t winning this game through Skyy Moore. And they are slightly favored.
PLAY: Kelce MORE than 70.5 receiving yards
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
Christian Kirk MORE Than 57.5 Receiving Yards
Christian Kirk has been all over the place, but he’s averaging 69.3 YPG on nearly eight targets, and is coming off of an 11-target game. Also, even when the targets have been low, he’s had the yardage.
Kirk has had more than 57 yards in five of nine games. In one of the games he didn’t, he had 54 yards. His aDOT isn’t great, but we’ve seen him pass 10 targets three times this season.
Against a pass-funnel defense, we should see good volume for him as the clear WR1 in the eyes of Trevor Lawrence. We have Kirk eclipsing his 57.5-yard PrizePicks projection for 72.05 yards.
PLAY: Kirk MORE than 57.5 receiving yards
Seattle Seahawks at L.A. Rams
Tyler Lockett MORE Than 58.5 Receiving Yards
Our projection for Tyler Lockett is monstrous compared to PrizePicks. They have him at 58.5 receiving yards; we have him at 75.51.
Geno Smith isn’t a big-arm QB, but Lockett is getting his this season. He has at least 81 receiving yards in three of his last five games and is getting pretty consistent targets over that stretch: 10, 8, 9, 5, and 8. Don’t let the overall 54.9 YPG fool you. The usage is up and our projection is saying that we should lean on the recent stuff.
The Rams have been pretty good on defense, but the personnel tells us that they should regress to something pretty awful. Smith is a good enough QB to utilize Lockett to do just that.