NFL PrizePicks Week 12 Predictions: Henry, DeVito, & Powell Make Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 12 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, a DFS Pick’em site, lays out player projections for us to stack on a ticket for user-created entries. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create a contest. If you haven’t tried it yet, use the PrizePicks referral code “GRINDERS” to get a deposit match up to $100.
For NFL Week 12, we’ll look at the board and see what usage, gameflow, Vegas, and — of course — our projections can tell us about how players are likely to produce. We’ll look at passing, rushing, and receiving categories most weeks.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 12
- Derrick Henry MORE than 68.5 rushing yards
- Tommy DeVito MORE than 177.5 passing yards
- Brandon Powell LESS than 22.5 receiving yards
Tennessee Titans vs. Carolina Panthers
Derrick Henry MORE/LESS Than 68.5 Rushing Yards
DeHember should come a few days early this year, as Derrick Henry draws the Panthers in Week 12 as a favorite at home. The Panthers have only given up 4.3 YPC< but they’re so bad that the volume is on the heavier side — 25 rush attempts per game against them.
The Panthers have also given up 14 rushing TDs — by far the worst in the NFL, considering they’ve only played 10 games in 11 weeks.
Henry hasn’t been a volume monster this season and he’s been held to under 63 yards in four of 10 games this season, but that has to change with the matchup and gamescript, given the Titans are starting a bad backup QB. 20 carries should tip the scales over the 68.5-yard PrizePicks projection. And our projections agree, putting him at 79.31 rushing yards.
PLAY: Henry MORE than 68.5 rushing yards
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Tommy DeVito MORE/LESS Than 177.5 Passing Yards
The Giants suck hard and Tommy DeVito is not all that good, but the Giants are leaning on him more and more every week.
DeVito went from 20 pass attempts in Week 9 to 27 in Week 10 and 28 in Week 11. He’s had 246, 86, and 175 passing yards in each of those weeks.
He should get 32’ish pass attempts in Week 12 as an underdog again this week and that should be enough to break his 177.5 PrizePicks projection against a middle-of-the-road defense.
Sacks have been sucking away at DeVito’s volume, but the Patriots are 17th in pressure rate (22.1%), so that’s where I get to him throwing more than 30 times. Our projections have DeVito smashing PrizePicks for 196.76 passing yards.
PLAY: DeVito MORE than 177.5 passing yards
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Brandon Powell MORE/LESS Than 22.5 Receiving Yards
This is confessedly a tricky one where I’m just trusting our projections. It’s really hard for a #2 WR to not get 22.5 receiving yards, but it’s very possible here.
Brandon Powell saw nine targets in the two starts from Joshua Dobbs. Jordan Addison saw 13 and T.J. Hockenson saw 22, including 15 in Week 9. Those 15 targets are my argument against Powell.
In a game where the Vikings won’t be forced away from the top-two options — Hockenson and Addison — it could be tough for Powell to see much of any volume and Powell only has a 7.3 aDOT. Hence, our projection of 8.77 receiving yards for Powell.
Dobbs is clearly looking for Hockenson first and Addison second. The Bears aren’t gonna force him to look away. And, when they do, Dobbs is perfectly fine with checking down to the RBs a ton, no matter which RB is on the field.