NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 3: Strategy, Safest Bets, and Upsets
The 2021 NFL season is in full-swing once again, which means that eliminator, survivor, and pick’em pools are on many people’s minds once again. This fall, we will be offering some advice and best practices for how to approach each of these formats.
There are quite a few heavy favorites on the board for Week 3, and we’ve already discussed pick’em pool strategy for this week, so now let’s break down our best options for our NFL survivor and eliminator contests.
NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks & Strategy
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 17 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
In Week 1, we said that it makes sense to burn an elite team, the Los Angeles Rams, to start off the year with a victory. We successfully burned another elite team in Week 2—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 3, there is an opportunity to use a less notable team, but one that has an extremely favorable matchup at home against a rookie quarterback.
Week 3 Survivor Pick: Denver Broncos
This Sunday, the Denver Broncos get to take on Zach Wilson, who is coming off of a horrendous zero touchdown, four interceptions game against the New England Patriots in Week 2.. There is a reason that Denver is a double-digit favorite in this game. The Broncos have a superior offensive and defensive line and should be able to dominate the trenches with ease for the entirety of the game. Denver’s defensive line should wreak havoc on Wilson, who has shown an inability to effectively get rid of the ball in the young season. Teddy Bridgewater should not need to have a spectacular day for the Broncos to move to 3-0 on the year.
Denver is a better team on both sides of the football in this matchup. They should win comfortably on Sunday afternoon against another bad team.
The Broncos will likely be the most popular team in survivor contests this week, to be sure. Here are some other safe picks to consider.
Safest Picks
If playing in a survivor pool with no constraints on picking the same team multiple times throughout the course of the season, participants have far more options to consider on a weekly basis. In Week 3, the biggest favorites include the Denver Broncos (-10.5), Carolina Panthers (-7.5), Arizona Cardinals (-7.5), Baltimore Ravens (-7.5), and the Buffalo Bills (-7). Let’s take a closer look at each contest.
Panthers (vs. Texans)
We discussed above why we like Denver to win easily in their Week 3 matchup against the Jets, so let’s first dig deeper into the matchup between the Panthers and the Houston Texans. Admittedly, Carolina’s Week 1 victory came against the Jets, and their Week 2 slaughter of the New Orleans Saints might have had something to do with New Orleans missing eight assistant coaches. Still, Carolina has seen stable quarterback play from Sam Darnold, and Christian McCaffrey is as consistent of an offensive threat as there is in the National Football League. Add-in a strong defense going against Davis Mills on a short week and this becomes a very safe option to consider.
Cardinals (vs. Jaguars)
Arizona is unquestionably over-hyped after the first two weeks of the season. Kyler Murray has put up gaudy numbers against two horrendous defenses, but he continues to be an erratic thrower of the football—possessing an electrifying deep-ball, but less precision on more common short-to-intermediate routes. Still, he gets another favorable matchup in Week 3 against a bad Jacksonville Jaguars team. The Cardinals have already proven themselves capable of winning on the road in 2021. Trevor Lawrence has not proven himself capable of doing much of anything successfully at the NFL level through two weeks. The Cardinals are a safe option as well.
Upset Watch
Each week, we will examine one team that is a heavy favorite and discuss why they could be a slightly more risky option than the other teams that people are considering in their survivor and eliminator pools. This week, there are actually two teams we need to discuss.
Ravens (vs. Lions)
Some pundits might say that Baltimore’s victory against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football has them back on track heading to Detroit in Week 3. However, the way in which the Ravens won that football game is not a recipe for sustained success. The Ravens cannot tackle, rarely make the opposing quarterback uncomfortable, and still have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Detroit Lions are one of the worst teams in the league, which is why this spread is so lopsided. However, Goff leads a capable offense at home this Sunday. As a general rule, avoid picking teams with bad defenses on the road when you can help it. Avoid Baltimore this weekend.
Bills (vs. Football Team)
Buffalo was not great in Week 1 in a home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they rebounded nicely in Week 2 with a dominant 35-0 victory against the Miami Dolphins. Still, Josh Allen has not impressed anyone so far this fall. The Bills may have shutout the Dolphins last Sunday, but Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett are both less talented than the quarterback they will face this weekend. Even more noteworthy, Washington’s ferocious defensive line could be a huge problem for a Buffalo offensive line that has been very inconsistent so far in 2021. In Week 1, Pittsburgh put pressure on Allen early and often, and ended up winning with a quarterback that is arguably less talented than Taylor Heinicke. There has been significant sharp money backing Washington for a reason. Beware of Buffalo this week, even at home.
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