NFL Pick'em Pool Picks Week 3: Straight Up & Against the Spread
After going 10-6 in both Week 1 and Week 2, we are back with our Week 3 NFL Pick’em selections!
There are multiple formats for pick’em tournaments, including the picking against the spread and ranking selections in confidence intervals. In this column, we will touch on both the classic style and picking against the spread each week.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks, then Matt Schmitto will break down his top five picks against the spread. Also, don’t miss my Week 3 Survivor Guidee if you’re still alive in your eliminator pools!
NFL Week 3 Pick’em Pool Picks: Tips, Strategy
Week 3 Selections
Denver Broncos
Carolina Panthers
Arizona Cardinals
Las Vegas Raiders
Cleveland Browns
Los Angeles Rams
Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
New Orleans Saints
Kansas City Chiefs
Cincinnati Bengals
Atlanta Falcons
Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers
Dallas Cowboys
Broncos (vs. Jets)
The Denver Broncos are unlikely to win a Super Bowl this February, but they have looked pretty good against two bad teams to open the fall slate of action. Against the New York Giants in their season opener, the Denver coaching staff made it evident that they do not plan to ask Teddy Bridgewater to do anything that he is uncomfortable with on the football field. This means that the Broncos offense is going to throw a lot of short-to-intermediate passes, take care of the football, and let their stout defense win them quite a few games. Zach Wilson was about as awful as a quarterback can be in the New York Jets’ Week 2 loss to the New England Patriots, throwing four interceptions and no touchdowns. Wilson was also sacked four times against New England. If he cannot get rid of the ball better against Denver, the Jets could experience quite a few negative plays on Sunday—resulting in another loss.
Panthers (vs. Texans)
The Carolina Panthers opened the year with a boring 19-14 victory against the Jets. However, their 26-7 victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 2 caught a lot more attention. Sam Darnold and Christian McCaffrey have both been excellent on the young season. Carolina’s defense has been outstanding, even if they did face a hapless New York offense, and a New Orleans group that was missing quite a few members of the coaching staff. While Carolina might not be an elite team, their stable quarterback play and strong defense is enough to make them a safe option against Davis Mills and the Houston Texans on Thursday.
Cardinals (vs. Jaguars)
In Week 2, we learned that the Arizona Cardinals are not nearly as good as people thought they were when they beat an unprepared Tennessee Titans team in Week 1. Yet, they are still probably good enough to beat the ineffectual Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday. Top draft pick, Trevor Lawrence has looked entirely mortal through his first two weeks as a professional, throwing three interceptions in the season opener, and only totaling 118 passing yards against the Broncos. Even if Arizona’s defense continues to struggle, it is doubtful that Jacksonville’s anemic offense will be able to keep up with one of the most dynamic offenses in the game, led by Kyler Murray.
Raiders (vs. Dolphins)
Tua Tagovailoa has fractured ribs and will not play on Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders. After Tagovailoa left last week’s contest against the Buffalo Bills, Jacoby Brissett struggled mightily, completing only 24-of-40 pass attempts for 169 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. Miami’s offense will likely have more room to operate against a beatable Las Vegas defense, but it is doubtful that Brissett will be able to keep up with Derek Carr and company. Bettors do not have to be willing to hop on the Carr MVP train to admit that he has been sensational through the first two weeks of the season. He threw for 435 yards at home against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, and followed that up with 382 yards in a winning effort on the road in Pittsburgh in Week 2. Expect another big day from him and the Raiders offense, even against a strong Miami secondary unit.
Browns (vs. Bears)
Earlier this week, Jarvis Landry was placed on injured reserve, but that is not nearly as big of a blow to the Cleveland Browns as it may seem to casual fans of the National Football League. Landry is a talented receiver, but Cleveland’s dominance happens at the line of scrimmage. Through two weeks, the Browns have once again proven to have arguably the best offensive line in football. Their defensive line has not performed up to expectations, which is understandable considering that this group added a lot of new pieces in the offseason. Whether the Chicago Bears start Andy Dalton or Justin Fields this weekend, Cleveland is likely to win with relative ease, playing in front of their home fans.
Rams (vs. Buccaneers)
There is nobody that loves Tom Brady more than I do, but I cannot convince myself to bet on the Buccaneers this weekend at Sofi Stadium. It is undeniable that Tampa Bay’s offense is historically good—and is likely to only get better as the season progresses. However, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are simply a bad matchup for a vulnerable Buccaneers’ secondary. Although Tampa Bay has one of the most feared defensive lines in football, this group does not have time to get to the quarterback against teams that design a lot of quick, short passes. In Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts, Stafford averaged just 2.1 seconds before getting the ball out of his hands, per Pro Football Focus. Tampa Bay should be able to score plenty of points in this one, but the Rams have the better defense, and a well-designed Los Angeles offensive game plan could be too much for Brady to overcome.
Schmitto’s NFL Week 3 Picks Against The Spread
Panthers at Texans +8.5
Current Consensus Line: Panthers +8
The Texans lost quarterback Tyrod Taylor against the Browns and now turn to 2021 third-round pick David Mills. Mills only played 13 games in college after being recruited to Stanfored as the top high school quarterback in the nation. The highlight of his college career was setting Stanford’s school record with 504 passing yards against Washington State. None of that really matters this week, but at least you know something about the Texans quarterback. I’ve been bullish on the Panthers, most recently picking them to cover the spread against Saints last week. Their defense has looked great and on offense Sam Darnold has a bevy of weapons at his disposal. The Houston Texans have exceeded expectations, too. They beat the Jaguars by 16 in Week 1 and were competitive with the Browns before Taylor’s untimely exit. They still managed to cover the spread in spite of his departure. As much as I like the Panthers, I think 8.5 points is probably 0.5-1.5 points too many. Mills should look a lot better with a week of preparation under his belt.
PICK: Texans +8.5
Washington Football at Bills -8.5
Current Consensus Line: Bills -7.5
The consensus line has shortened to 7.5 but we can still take Washington +8.5 in DraftKings Sportbook’s NFL Pick’em, and that’s exactly what I’ll do. Taylor Heinicke once again proved more than serviceable in a 31-30 win over the Giants, as he completed 34-of-36 passes for 336 yards and two touchdown passes. Washington’s defense has struggled to replicate their 2020 performance. Now they face Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, which is no easy test. They must cut down on the penalties and undisciplined play if they want to keep the duo out of the end zone, but I think Chase Young & Co. will rise to the occasion.
PICK: Washington +8.5
Saints at Patriots -2.5
Current Consensus Line: Patriots -3
Most bettors were fooled by the Saints’ dominance over the Packers in Week 1 and decided to back them against the Panthers. That proved to be a bad decision. The reality is that Winston doesn’t have many weapons to throw to, which allowed the Panthers to focus on slowing down Alvin Kamara. Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense will have a similar plan. I’m betting that it’s succesful.
PICK: Patriots -2.5
Buccaneers at Rams +1.5
Current Consensus Line: Rams +1.5
Nick Galaida convinced me of this pick in his early Bucs vs. Rams betting preview. At the time, the Rams were 1-point favorites but now are getting 1.5 points against the spread. In short, the Rams beat the Bucs last season with Jared Goff. This week they’re at home with Matthew Stafford.
PICK: Rams +1.5
Eagles at Cowboys -4.5
Current Consensus Line: Cowboys -4
The Cowboys kicked off the 2021 season with a two-game road trip, impressing first on offense in Tampa and then with their defense in Los Angeles. They head back to Texas 1-1 and get the luxury of a full week of practice in Dallas before hosting a division rival in their first home game of the season. The crowd will be rowdy, that’s for sure. But what this pick really comes down to is that I believe the Cowboys are still underrated while the Eagles are getting too much credit for a dominant victory over the Falcons in Week 1.
PICK: Chiefs -3.5
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