NFL Value Plays: Divisional Round
With only four games to choose from, it’s hard not to roster a few top-tier guys and to do so, you’ll need some cap relief at other spots in your lineup. The short slates are tough, but at least the teams playing offer plenty of fantasy value. In honor of the last major weekend of fantasy football until September, I’ll be going over potential cap-saving options on FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet. Since the player pool is obviously much smaller, the typical bargain bin baller price cutoff won’t be in play here, but I’ll try not to stray too far from it. One position where the whole field is expensive is quarterback; you can pay less then $8,000 for your QB on FanDuel if you want to roster a starter, which is where we’ll start..
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Philip Rivers – $8,000 – We’ll start with the cheapest starting QB on the site, who should be airing it out for most of the day considering his team is currently a nine point underdog. Rivers has been more of a game manager lately, seeing fewer pass attempts and thus fewer yards, but I think the Chargers will have to rely on the passing game a little more this week. Ryan Mathews is banged up and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the Broncos get out to a decent-sized lead by halftime. As well as the Chargers have been playing, it will be very tough for them to replicate the success they had in the Week 15 win at Mile High. I expect Rivers passing numbers to reflect the Chargers playing catch-up, which is ultimately better for his fantasy value.
Russell Wilson – $8,400 – The only other QB under $9,000 that I’ll have exposure to on FanDuel is Russell Wilson. Wilson had a great game in his first match-up with New Orleans, throwing for over 300 yards and 4 TD’s, and those numbers came with the Seahawks in control all night. He’s struggled since that game, but I think he gets back to his old self in a home playoff game with all eyes on him. The Saints defense is dealing with a few injuries (Kenny Vaccaro stands out the most), but they did step up for last week’s meeting with the Eagles and they’ll want revenge after the Week 13 beating Seattle put on them. I’m not sure I’d trust Wilson in cash games, but I’ll have him in a few GPP lineups paired up with one of his targets.
DraftKings
Colin Kaepernick – $7,300 – Kaepernick is the cheapest starting QB on DK, so it’s hard to argue playing a guy with his upside even in a very tough match-up. However, the Panthers completely stifled him when the Panthers traveled to Candlestick in Week 10, holding him to just 91 yards passing and 16 yards on the ground. That will surely scare a lot of people off, which gives him some GPP appeal and if you’re playing multiple lineups on DK, throwing him in a few GPP lineups isn’t a bad idea. The playoffs seem to bring about a different type of football for some teams, and Kaep should be confident after taking down the Packers on the road last week.
- Philip Rivers also works on DK for $7,700, but you could also make the jump up to Andrew Luck for just $300 more. That one is pretty close for me.
DraftStreet
Tom Brady – $14,439 – Since all of the QB’s outside of Manning are priced very similarly, I’ll go with the one who I think puts up the best dollar-for-dollar performance of the weekend on DS. Brady has struggled the past two games, but I’m not worried about those performances at all. This is the playoffs and Brady steps up in prime-time, so even though he’s still missing his favorite weapon, he’ll still throw the ball a lot and should be able to carve up the Colts secondary that just allowed Alex Smith to dominate them.
- The gap between Brady and Rivers is not very big, so he can also played with confidence for $1,200 cheaper then Brady. Andrew Luck ($14,028) and Russell Wilson ($13,284) are also in play.
Running Backs
FanDuel
Shane Vereen – $6,400 – Vereen has a few really nice prices across the industry due to his lack of effectiveness/touches at the end of the regular season (although he did find the endzone in each of the season’s final two games). He was also dealing with an injury, so it’s understandable why the Patriots wanted to limit his exposure. Brady loves to look for Vereen out of the backfield, and he’s become one of Brady’s most trusted targets with Gronkowski out of action. The other two bruising backs will take on the most of the carries, but there is always the chance that Vereen steals a short TD run in addition to his contributions in the passing game.
Danny Woodhead – $6,200 – I had a tough time deciding between Woodhead and Donald Brown, but I’ll give the edge to Woodhead since he’s $400 cheaper. Ryan Mathews is clearly banged up and didn’t play much in the second half last week, but he is still expected to play on Sunday. Even so, the Chargers are going to get Woodhead involved quite a bit if they get behind in this game, and he can rack up points quickly on short passes in catch-up mode. He’s also got a nose for the endzone and although he didn’t produce all that much in the previous two games between these teams, I think that changes on Sunday. If Mathews ends up sitting out, Woodhead becomes nearly a must-play almost everywhere.
- Also receiving consideration: Darren Sproles – $4,900, LeGarrette Blount – $5,600
DraftKings
Donald Brown – $5,700 – Brown might be overlooked this week even after a big game against Kansas City, but it would be a mistake to ignore him for a good price on a full-point PPR site. The Patriots are the worst ranked run-defense left in the playoffs (21st against RB’s), and with injuries beating up the front seven, Brown could contribute nicely on the ground if the Colts choose to go ground-and-pound. With Trent Richardson losing a fumble in last week’s game, the coaching staff has to be even more reluctant to give him touches, which is good news for the guy that Richardson was initially brought in to replace.
- Danny Woodhead is also sitting at $5,700, and is the full-point PPR scoring only makes him more appealing. Darren Sproles for $4,600 is a nice price, especially if Pierre Thomas is ruled out. Thomas practiced on Thursday, so there is still some hope that he suits up on Saturday.
- Also receiving consideration: Frank Gore – $4,600, Stevan Ridley – $4,200, Pierre Thomas – $3,400 (that’s a tough price to ignore if he plays, but would only use him in a GPP)
DraftStreet
Shane Vereen – $8,926 – Just as he is on FanDuel, Vereen is my top value RB of the week on DraftStreet. I’m a little concerned that the Patriots could keep it on the ground in the cold weather if they get ahead early, because if they are going to make a Super Bowl run they’ll need both Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount to contribute. I don’t think this game gets out of hand though and as long as it’s close, Vereen should see a healthy number of snaps as the most trusted backfield option on the team. This price is just too hard for me to stay away from.
Ryan Mathews – $8,037 – This is by far my favorite price on Mathews, who should be in for another game with 20+ touches if he suits up (and stays healthy) on Sunday. The Chargers had a lot of success controlling the clock with the ground game in Denver the last time these teams met, and my guess is they will try to stick with that as long as they can to keep Peyton off the field. Ultimately, the Broncos could get ahead by a few scores which would then cause the Bolts to go with Woodhead, so the success of both backs depends mostly on the flow of the game. Even if the game does get out of hand, Mathews should still rack up enough early touches to pay off his price tag on DS. He’ll be in all of my cash game lineups if he plays. To be honest, I currently have quite a few lineups consisting of Mathews and Vereen at my RB spots, with Knowshon Moreno ($10,338) and Donald Brown ($9,492) occupying the flex spots. There is almost too much value at the RB position on DS.
- Also receiving consideration: Danny Woodhead – $8,702, Darren Sproles – $6,242, Stevan Ridley – $5,572, DeAngelo Williams – $7,511
Wide Receivers
FanDuel
Keenan Allen – $6,700 – Since I can’t recommend any of the dirt cheap options with any confidence, I’ll go with the receiver who I think will be the top guy in terms of fantasy points per dollar. Allen has clearly vaulted himself from an unproven rookie to #1 on the depth chart, and for good reason; he’s shown great rapport with Rivers and is very sure-handed in the redzone. Rivers likes to target him in close and it worked wonders in the last meeting at Mile High, when both of Allen’s catches resulted in touchdowns. While his numbers between the 20’s have been suffering, he’s the top target on this team and could have a huge game if Rivers airs it out more then he has in recent weeks. The Broncos allowed the 7th most FP’s to WR’s this season, due in large part to the fact that teams are constantly playing from behind against them.
Marques Colston – $5,600 – I’ve seen a few articles this week on various sites advising people to stay away from Colston due to the match-up with physical corner Richard Sherman, but I don’t think Colston sees much of him on Saturday. Colston spends a decent amount of time operating out of the slot, and both Sherman and Byron Maxwell stayed on their side instead of matching up with particular receivers bac in Week 13. I don’t expect that to change this week, leaving Walter Thurmond III to cover Colston. While he didn’t have much success in the first meeting (4 catches for 27 yards), the Seahawks will probably focus considerable attention to stopping Graham, which should open up some space for Colston to roam. His meager two catches against the Eagles was a disappointment, but Colston had been pretty heavily involved in the prior weeks as he continued to get healthy. I don’t love him for cash games, but he’s in play for GPP’s.
- Also receiving consideration: Griff Whalen – $4,600 (if you need a WR under 5K, he’s my favorite option), Doug Baldwin – $4,900, Steve Smith – $4,500 (you’ll need some stones to play him, but at this price he doesn’t need to do much to return value)
DraftKings
Danny Amendola – $5,000 – Julian Edelman is the preferred New England wideout, but Amendola is considerably cheaper on DK so he gets the nod here. Amendola has been banged up all season, but with two weeks between games he should be well rested and ready to go on Saturday. Aaron Dobson is very doubtful to play, which would leave the Patriots with Edelman, Amendola and Kenbrell Thompkins at the WR position. Brady seems to lock in on a certain targets when he has early success working with them (think back to Edelman in Weeks 2 and 15, and Vereen in Week 14), which could lead to a big week for Amendola if he find openings early on. He’s better suited as a GPP play, but I can’t argue with him as a cash game play if you need to save cap at your WR/FLEX spot. There’s no one priced below him that I would have any confidence rostering.
Michael Crabtree – $5,800 – It’s tough to figure out the San Francisco passing game right now. With Crabtree back in action, Kaepernick has three above-average targets to choose from in addition to Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. Crabtree should be matched up with Melvin White on Sunday, who has really struggled in coverage recently and Kaepernick is more likely to pick on him then Drayton Florence, who will be shadowing Boldin when he’s lined up outside. Although Boldin has been seeing more targets since Crabtree’s return to the lineup, the former Texas Tech star broke out last week against Green Bay and has a really nice shot to follow that up with another big game this week. It’s hard to really trust any of the offensive weapons in this game since the O/U is so low, but Crabtree is actually in a nice spot to produce as long as Kaep can get away from that ferocious Carolina pass rush.
- There aren’t many viable “value” options at WR on DK this weekend, as most of the better options sit between $6,000-$7,000. As far as those options go, Eric Decker ($6,500) is the most appealing, and Keenan Allen is also in play for the same price. Wes Welker is actually $300 cheaper then both, but I would make the jump up to Decker for the small price difference.
DraftStreet
Julian Edelman – $8,115 – Edelman has found his way onto almost all of my DS teams this week with a price-tag barely over 8K. There is actually a very nice number of underpriced wideouts on DS, but it’s hard for me to get away from rostering Edelman. He seems to be a solid bet for double-digit targets and even though the scoring here is only half-point PPR, I would be very surprised if Edelman doesn’t exceed value at this price. Edelman shouldn’t have to deal with Vontae Davis too much, and I’m not sure that would scare me away regardless. The price is just too good to ignore this week.
Keenan Allen – $8,435 – It was a toss-up between Allen and Eric Decker, but with Decker being about $1,200 more expensive, Allen gets the nod as the second-best dollar for dollar play. As I touched on earlier, Allen has established himself as the top target in this passing game, and he could be heavily involved if the Chargers are playing catch-up.
- Also receiving consideration: Eric Decker – $9,615, Wes Welker – $8,906, Anquan Boldin – $8,399, Marques Colston – $6,523
Tight Ends
FanDuel
Coby Fleener – $4,900 – Fleener is another guy who’s hard to trust, but he did step up in the Colts first playoff last week and hopefully he can carry that momentum into this weekend. He did have just three catches in the prior three games leading up to last Saturday’s tilt, so he’s capable of leaving you in a hole, but all he really needs to do is connect on a redzone target to return value. New England may very well make a concerted effort to stop T.Y. Hilton, and if they do, it would open up a lot of room for Fleener to roam free and Luck has nice chemistry with his former college teammate. Don’t expect a GPP winning performance from him, but he’s in play if you want to pay up at other positions.
Antonio Gates – $4,500 – It’s been the Ladarius Green show lately, which partially explains why Gates is now actually cheaper then Green on FanDuel. The two have been pretty even lately in terms of targets, but Green is typically utilized more as a run-blocker when he’s in the game. Gates has fallen off lately and hasn’t posted a big game since back in Week 4, so the risk factor is certainly high here. The lack of redzone usage for Gates is also concerning, but for the price Gates does offer upside against the Broncos, who have struggled with tight ends this season.
DraftKings
Greg Olsen – $4,700 – With Steve Smith still iffy for this week, Olsen could play an even more important role in the passing game against the 49ers. Even if Smith does play, he’ll likely be more of a decoy considering he had a setback in practice on Thursday. While the 49ers did hold Olsen to just one catch for 14 yards the last time these teams met, he’ll no doubt be more involved on Sunday. He should be Newton’s top target in the passing game and will be an even bigger factor in the redzone. There’s no doubt that the 49ers defense is elite, but they are close to average against the tight end position and while this game is expected to be close, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Carolina in catch-up mode at times, which is good news for Olsen’s fantasy value.
Coby Fleener – $3,800 – He’s also underpriced on DraftKings, and if New England attempts to take Hilton out of the picture, Fleener would need to play a bigger role for the Colts to get anything going through the air. I would prefer Olsen over Fleener if all else was equal, but for a $900 discount, it’s really hard to choose between the two. I don’t feel confident in any of the other cheap tight end options on DraftKings this week.
DraftStreet
Jimmy Graham – $9,910 – I realize I am listing the highest priced option at the position this week, but how do you not roll with Graham for under 10K this week? There is no way you can play on DS and not have at least some exposure to Graham, unless you’re really big on Julius Thomas this week, who is less then $1,000 cheaper then Graham. It actually might not be a bad idea to roll with both Graham and Thomas this week, due to the roster flexibility DS provides with two FLEX spots. The Seahawks will surely try to take Brees’ favorite target away from him, but there is no stopping Graham when he is motivated. He’s as involved in the redzone as any pass-catcher in the league, so he provides a nice floor with substantially higher upside then anyone else at the position this week. Fade Graham at your own risk.
Coby Fleener – $4,787 – Fleener can be had for less then half of what it costs to roster Graham, although it’s not really necessary to downgrade unless you roster the highest priced players at other positions. If you are trying to fit guys like Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas and Marshawn Lynch into your roster, punting the TE spot is an option and Fleener is your best bet.
- Also receiving consideration: Greg Olsen – $6,364, Zach Miller – $3,614