NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2024)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 1 NFL survivor pool strategy, previewing his favorite survivor picks of the week as well as teams to watch out for.
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NFL Week 1 Survivor Strategy and Picks
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2024, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Each week in this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one favorite that is on upset alert. Last year, our teams to trust went 9-0 SU and 9-0 ATS before the Cincinnati Bengals ended our season in Week 10. Our teams on upset alert were 3-6 ATS, with 3 of those teams losing outright as greater than a touchdown favorite.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
My Week 1 NFL Survivor Pick: Buffalo Bills
This past offseason, much of the talk surrounding the Buffalo Bills has been about what they have lost, but not much of it has been about what is still in the building.
Notable names Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis both departed, but they are likely less of a value-loss than many people realize. From Week 11 to Week 18 in 2023, Diggs and Davis were Buffalo’s top-two pass-catchers, but only by slim margins over Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid in what became a very balanced and unpredictable aerial attack. Buffalo will also return four of last year’s five starting linemen from a unit that had the lowest adjusted sack% and 3rd-best adjusted line yards ranking in the entire NFL. Oh, and let’s not forget that quarterback Josh Allen returns, who has finished top-four in EPA/play and success rate among qualified signal callers in back-to-back seasons entering 2024.
Defensively, Buffalo managed to finish 14th or better in DVOA, EPA/play, and success rate last year despite losing linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones to lengthy absences in Week 5. Jones returns healthy for Week 1, with plenty of talent around him on the defensive side of the ball.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals are coming off of a 4-13 campaign, in which they went only 2-7 on the road and ranked 28th overall in point differential. Their defense ended the year ranked 32nd in DVOA, 31st in EPA/play, and 32nd in success rate. Offensively, they ranked 9th in EPA/play but only 14th in success rate from Week 10 to the end of the regular season, with a healthy Kyler Murray on the field.
Arizona is likely to exceed their 2023 win total, but they still have a rather porous offensive line and an undeniable dearth of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Cardinals generated the 2nd-fewest pressures in the NFL last year and didn’t add anyone particularly noteworthy to their pass rush this past offseason. They do have one of the better safety tandems in the league, but the cornerback and linebacker positions don’t appear overly impressive.
There might be some growing pains for Buffalo to begin 2024 without Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, but they still have the better quarterback in this matchup and should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. As long as Josh Allen can avoid costly turnovers, they should be able to come away with a win here in front of their home fans, where they are 14-3 across the last two years.
Week 1 Survivor Fade: Cincinnati Bengals
Make no mistake – the Cincinnati Bengals are better than the New England Patriots. That’s why they are favored by 8.5 points heading into Week 1. Still, there are red flags.
Notably, Joe Burrow will be playing his first game since tearing a ligament in his right wrist midway through the 2023 season. Burrow has reportedly looked good at joint practices and had a clean drive in the team’s first preseason game, but he hasn’t taken a regular-season snap since that point. Further complicating matters is that his No. 1 wide receiver, JaMarr Chase, has not been practicing as he continues to hold out for a new contract. Chase missed practice again on Tuesday.
Defensively, the Bengals were a disaster last year, finishing 23rd in DVOA, 27th in EPA/play, and 31st in success rate. They lost longtime defensive tackle DJ Reader this past offseason, which isn’t likely to help matters. Cincinnati remains extremely mediocre at linebacker as well, with Germaine Pratt and Logan Wilson coming off of underwhelming 2023 campaigns.
On the other side of this matchup, New England is returning a number of stars to the defensive side of the ball, who were lost early in 2023 due to injury. Christian Gonzalez, a 1st round pick out of Oregon, was sensational to begin his rookie year before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 4. Marcus Jones only played 2 games last year before being ruled out for the year. Even still, the Patriots finished 9th in DVOA, 8th in EPA/play, and 7th in success rate on the defensive side of the ball last fall.
Jacoby Brissett certainly isn’t an elite signal caller, but he takes care of the ball reasonably well and is 4-7 in his last 11 games as a starter in which he’s thrown 20+ passes. A clean game from Brissett, coupled with a strong game on the ground from the Patriots’ two-headed rushing attack, could be enough to keep this game uncomfortably close.
Home teams of between 6 and 10 points are 229-73-1 SU (75.8%) since the beginning of 2018, so there is a strong likelihood that Cincinnati comes away with a win here. That being said, there are a lot of question marks surrounding this group heading into 2024 and it’s probably best to wait and see what Joe Burrow and company look like before investing a do-or-die survivor pick on them against what should be a good New England defense.
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