NFL Week 10 Player Props: Best Bets for Ryan, Carter, and Sutton
Good day, Grinders! We surpassed the halfway mark of the NFL season with one of the most upside-down weeks to date. Jaguars? Broncos? What is happening? As survivor pool entrants their loss, we move on to find winning player props for Week 10. Did you miss me last week? Probably not after my Week 8 performance! We will touch on that and move forward. Thanks for reading!
What a brutal week I had in Week 8! Sam Darnold — potentially out-of-a-job Sam Darnold — didn’t even give me a realistic chance at a win on his passing yardage prop. My DFS lineups suffered along with Sam as my Panthers’ stacks never even sniffed the money. Kenneth Gainwell did his best job to not live up to his moniker as he ceded most of the work to Boston Scott and… Jordan Howard.
Reviewing that prop pick afterwards surely leaves a sour taste in my mouth. Further, I think that the Gainwell play was less tied to the value in betting versus the potential impact he might have in fantasy lineups. Either way, I certainly could have found a betting spot for a running back and feel pretty poorly about that pick.
Not to be completely negative, Chris Godwin eclipsed his receiving yardage prop early and then stomped it into the ground. With 140 receiving yards, that 1 unit return was never in doubt and salvaged what was a very embarrassing week. After Week 8, Week 10 cannot get much worse. We only have room to improve. Let’s find a few winner for Sunday’s NFL afternoon slate of games.
Make sure to check out our game breakdowns in the sports betting section and some NFL betting tips prior to diving into this weekend’s action.
NFL Week 10 Player Props
Matt Ryan Over/Under 290.5 Passing Yards
With a 55-point implied total, the Falcons at the Dallas Cowboys is projected to supply copious amounts of fantasy goodness. Matt Ryan leads a tenacious Falcon’s team into Dallas after a pretty surprising upset victory over the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons were not the upset of the week, but Matt Ryan continues to move the ball downfield despite the loss of Calvin Ridley. As pretty hefty underdogs on the road, I would anticipate Ryan’s arm will be tested on Sunday.
Sitting in the bottom third of the NFL, the Dallas defense owns a 270.5 pass yardage allowed per game mark. Everybody knows the potential firepower Dak Prescott and company bring to the table, leaving opposing offense to play catch up. With only 3.4 yards per rush attempt this season, the Falcons’ offense will be forced to throw the ball to keep up.
While I was very interested in some of his completions props, those numbers are so juiced that I think I would rather take a swing at the yardage prop. RotoGrinders’ GridironIQ tool projects Ryan to exceed 300 yards. I dig it. Let’s put this over on our card.
PROP: 1.15u on Ryan Over 290.5 Yards (-115) at PointsBet
Michael Carter Over/Under 39.5 Rushing Yards
Fresh off of a rookie running back lighting my money on fire, I think taking the over on Michael Carter of the Jets is a really good idea. Please don’t close your tab… yet. I still have one last pick after this to shake your confidence even more.
The Jets… well, they stink. Even with the mercurial rise of the legend Mike White at quarterback, the Jets leave plenty to be desired. As a home underdog, the Jets face the unfavorable task of playing the Buffalo Bills after being upset by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
As much as my survivor pool interests would love another upset, the Bills will not lose to the Jets. Instead, we are likely looking at a make-good for the terrible loss to the Jaguars in Week 9. Yet, having said all of that, Michael Carter keeps dominating all of the work in the Jets’ backfield.
Carter now has three consecutive weeks of at least doubling the carry total of Ty Johnson. Tevin Coleman received no carries during that span and Carter’s work continues to increase. The Jets know that the only reasonable chance of defeating the Bills is to keep Josh Allen off the field and keep this game close through possession. New York will certainly try to feature Carter early and hope to control the ball. Carter has shown some burst. This rushing line is not very high. With two consecutive totals above this number, Carter going over feels strong despite the lack of sexiness inherent in selecting a Jets’ running back. Give me the over. Fingers crossed.
PROP: 1.1u on Carter Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at DraftKings
Courtland Sutton Over/Under 47.5 Receiving Yards
With a third consecutive over selection, it’s pretty clear that this article is coming out earlier rather than later. Early lines are ripe for the picking while bettors should be more prone to grabbing value as lines move as Sunday approaches. Hence, Courtland Sutton at home against the Eagles.
Coming off of a really strong victory against Dallas, the Broncos can go back-to-back and reinvigorate any chance at a playoff run with a home victory against the Eagles. The Broncos would probably love to run the football at home, but only do so about 40% of the time (middle of the league). The return of Jerry Jeudy and potentially Noah Fant, will only strengthen the passing game and probably open up more space for Courtland Sutton.
Also, Sutton is coming off of a dud with plenty of eyeballs on the game. I think that this recency bias opened the line up a bit too low. I would expect Sutton to bounce back and overcome this seemingly low hurdle that betting sites place in front of him. For the third time, give me the over.
PROP: 1.15u Sutton Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at DraftKings
That settles it. Good luck this week! Share your prop picks with Joe on Twitter @JoeCistaro.
2021 NFL Player Props Record: 12 – 9
Net Winning: +1.98
Image Credit: Imagn