NFL Week 11 Betting Picks: Bills at Dolphins
The Buffalo Bills opened as 7.5-point favorites against the Miami Dolphins and the line has moved to 7 at online sports books sites.
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NFL Week 11 Betting Picks – Bills at Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins +7
- Over/Under: 40.5
Both teams have been very different as the season has progressed. The Bills started out the season as one of the hottest teams in the league going 5-1 with their lone loss coming against the Patriots. The Dolphins on the other hand started as a virtual lock for the number one overall pick in next year’s draft and a real shot to be considered the worst team in NFL history. Now, as we sit here today, the Dolphins have a better record over their last four games than the Bills and are currently on a two-game winning streak.
The Bills have been an interesting team. They are stout on defense and have six wins on the season, but those wins have come over the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins, and Redskins. Outside of the Giants and the Titans (both of which were with a QB who is so bad they are not longer starting), everyone of those teams are in consideration for the number one overall pick in the 2021 draft. While the Bills -played a decent game against the Patriots before Allen got injured, they were destroyed by the Eagles and lost a game against the Browns. While I think the Bills are still a pretty decent team, they are a team that is viewed as much better than their record shows. Overall, they may make the playoffs, but they probably wouldn’t be a 6-3 team if they had even schedule of average strength.
The Dolphins, on the other hand, are a much worse team than their record would show. Their offense only had 2 TDs in the first 4 games and started out as one of the largest point differentials in NFL history. They had a lot of guys who are just learning how to play in the NFL but have progressively gotten better throughout the season, which has culminated in wins in their last 2 games. While they’re obviously not a good team, I am not so sure that they are the worst team in the league and they have a history of doing well against divisional opponents at home (which includes multiple wins over the Patriots over the last few years and a win over the Jets this year). We have already seen the Bills play the Dolphins once this season, and although the Bills did win by 10, the Dolphins had a real shot at winning for most of the game.
NFL Week 11 Betting Pick. If you can’t already tell by the above statements, I really like the Dolphins in this game. They are a team playing at home, in a divisional game, have been hot recently, and they are getting a full 7 points. While some sports books have the Dolphins as a 6.5 point dog, you can still find them at 7 points, so make sure to find them at the best price when you place the bet. In any case, I love the Dolphins +7
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NFL Week 11 Betting Picks — Player Props
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight props for the Bills at Dolphins:
Josh Allen -3.5 vs Ryan Fitzpatrick: Total Fantasy Points
Devin Singletary +.5 vs John Brown: Total Fantasy Points
Devante Parker -1.5 vs Cole Beasley: Total Fantasy Points