NFL Week 13 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 13 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 13 Survivor Picks, Strategy
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
In Week 1, we said that it made sense to burn an elite team, the Los Angeles Rams, to start off the year with a victory. We successfully burned another elite team in Week 2—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 3, we used a less notable team—the Denver Broncos in an extremely favorable matchup at home against a rookie quarterback. In Week 4, we took advantage of another team with a favorable matchup, the Buffalo Bills at home against an inexperienced signal caller. In Week 5, we took our first semi-risky play of the year, the Dallas Cowboys against their division rival. In Week 6, we successfully bet on some positive regression from Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. In Week 7, we finally burned the undefeated Arizona Cardinals in a favorable home matchup against the hapless Houston Texans. In Week 8, we took an admittedly risky opportunity to pick against a young quarterback making his first career start, but a 13-point blown lead in the fourth quarter ended our string of good fortune.
For the remainder of the NFL season, we will simply be outlining our top few eliminator options for those who remain in their tournaments. If there are specific games that you would like to see included in this piece in future weeks, please reach out to @DelphiCommish on Twitter.
Week 1: Los Angeles Rams
Week 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 3: Denver Broncos
Week 4: Buffalo Bills
Week 5: Dallas Cowboys
Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs
Week 7: Arizona Cardinals
Week 8: Cincinnati Bengals
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Prime Time games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
In Week 13, there are four teams favored by 9.5 points or more—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11), Indianapolis Colts (-10), Los Angeles Rams (-13), and the Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5). Let’s take a closer look at each contest to see which are the safest, and which are the most risky options for Week 13.
Safest Week 13 Picks, Bets
Rams (vs. Jaguars)
Entering Week 13, the Los Angeles Rams have lost three consecutive games, suffering defeat to the Tennessee Titans, San Francisco 49ers, and Green Bay Packers. Still, it is not time to hit the panic button on this group. Though this has been a surprising rough stretch for the Rams, this is undeniably one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. Playing at home against the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars is the ultimate “get right” spot for this group. Since 2003, teams that are favored by 13 points or more on the spread are 216-24-1 straight up. This is not a division game, not in prime time, and neither team has a rest advantage. There is no need to overthink this one—take the Rams.
Buccaneers (vs. Falcons)
When these two teams met in Week 2, Tom Brady tossed five touchdowns and Matt Ryan was intercepted three times. The Buccaneers dominated the line of scrimmage, holding the Atlanta Falcons to a dreadful 2.8 yards-per-carry on the ground. In the rematch, Atlanta will be without their top wide receiver, Calvin Ridley, who caught seven passes for 63 yards in Week 2. The Buccaneers finally established a running attack in their Week 12 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, which makes an already lethal offense even more potent. Intra-division games can sometimes be problematic, but the talent disparity in this one is enormous. The Buccaneers should win this one comfortably.
Survivor Pool Upset Watch
Each week, we will examine one or two teams that are a heavy favorite and discuss why they could be a slightly more risky option than the other teams that people are considering in their survivor and eliminator pools. In Week 4, we identified the eight-point favorite Baltimore Ravens as being on upset alert. It took a 4th and 19 conversion on the final drive and an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired for them to avoid a loss to the underdog Detroit Lions. In Week 5, we said to beware of the Cincinnati Bengals, who trailed 14-0 at halftime and only barely squeaked out a 24-21 victory on Thursday Night Football. In Week 6, we once again said to prepare for a stressful day if selecting the Ravens, who trailed by 16 points in the fourth quarter against the Colts. In Week 7, we warned bettors not to fall for the bait on the Buffalo Bills, who were touchdown favorites but ended up losing outright to the Tennessee Titans. In Week 8, we told you to stay away from the Kansas City Chiefs, who trailed by 17-14 late into the fourth quarter. Stay away from these stressful situations when you can help it. In Week 11, we told bettors to be wary of both the Cleveland Browns and the Tennessee Titans. Cleveland narrowly held on for a three-point victory. Despite entering play with the best record in the NFL, the Titans lost to the Houston Texans, who entered play with the worst record in the AFC.
Let’s take a look at this week’s two big favorites that could be in for a tougher contest than oddsmakers are suggesting.
Colts (vs. Texans)
Even the most passionate Carson Wentz critics (I’m talking about myself), have to acknowledge that he has played extremely well since the beginning of October. In his last nine games, Wentz owns a sterling 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Still, the Indianapolis Colts could find themselves in a tight contest on Sunday against a Houston Texans team that has not lost by more than 10 points with Tyrod Taylor under center this fall. This is a division showdown for these two teams, and the Colts have a beatable secondary unit—catching two red flags ahead of this matchup. Since 2003, teams favored by 10 points or more are 544-94-1 straight up, so Indianapolis is still likely to win this game. Nonetheless, there are better options this weekend for bettors.
Chiefs (vs. Broncos)
Is it time to pay the Mahomes tax again? We have been consistently fading the Kansas City Chiefs this fall, but were finally burned badly when Mahomes exploded for 406 passing yards and five touchdowns in a 41-14 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. The following week, Mahomes regressed significantly, failing to throw a touchdown pass in a game in which Kansas City scored only 19 points. The Chiefs have three wins this year by six points or less and an additional two wins by 12 points or less. The Denver Broncos are a tough divisional opponent capable of keeping this one relatively close. This is still not the same Kansas City team that went to consecutive Super Bowls. The big spread in this one is based more on public perception than it is based on the talent of each of these teams.
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