Sunday Night Football Odds & Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Good teams win, great teams cover. At least that’s the motto by which a sports bettor live. According to that definition of greatness, no team has been greater than one of the teams playing under the prime-time lights of Sunday Night Football in Week 11.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Sunday Football Odds
Since Patrick Mahomes took over the starting role in 2018, the Kansas City Chiefs are 29-15-2 against that spread. That means they’re cashing bets at an absurd 66% clip. Remember, a sports bettor needs to win 52.4% of their wagers to be profitable — with responsible bankroll management, of course.
I touched on all of this a few weeks ago when I asked if the Chiefs might be the next great sports betting dynasty.
This season, the Chiefs are 6-3 ATS, down from the 72% clip they posted on the way to the franchise’s first Super Bowl.
As friendly as Mahomes and the Chiefs have been to bettors, the one team that has been able to upset the defending Super Bowl champions is the AFC West rival they’re matched up against on SNF.
Kansas City’s Lone Loss
Jon Gruden’s Las Vegas Raiders stunned the Chiefs 40-32 on their Week 5 visit to Kansas City, as Derek Carr passed for 347 yards and three touchdowns while Josh Jacobs found the end zone twice on the ground. The Chiefs still managed to score 32 points, but the most impressive performance of all came from the Raiders’ defense, which disrupted Mahomes (at least by Mahomes’ standards) and held Kansas City’s prolific offense to merely 8 second-half points.
At the time the upset victory moved the Raiders above .500 and one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West. Las Vegas celebrated accordingly, sending their buses on a victory lap around Arrowhead Stadium.
Playing perfectly since then the Chiefs widened their division lead by another game, but at 6-3 the Raiders are in the playoff hunt and tied with the Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, and Titans for three available AFC wild-card spots.
There would be no better welcome gift in their new home of Las Vegas than the Raiders making the postseason for the first time since 2016. Obviously two of the five wild-card contenders will be left out; another upset victory against the Chiefs would go a long way in making sure it’s not the Raiders sitting on their couch come January. Unfortunately, that victory lap may have inadvertently made things more difficult for Gruden and Carr in Week 11.
A Victory Lap Turns Into Bulletin Board Material
The Chiefs haven’t had much bulletin board material the last couple of seasons, as they’ve dominated virtually any opponent standing in their way. However, over the last two weeks head coach Andy Reid has reportedly used the victory lap as just that.
“They won the game, so they can do anything they want to do,” Reid told reporters. “That’s not our style.”
Look, I don’t always drift down narrative streets such as this one but Chiefs’ offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy didn’t exactly scare me way from it this time:
Here’s what Eric Bieniemy said earlier — took the liberty of adding some appropriate music at the :40 second mark.
— Harold R. Kuntz (@HaroldRKuntz3) November 19, 2020
I cleaned the kitchen, floor, sink and stove after this. https://t.co/4ZcbQS2sj5 pic.twitter.com/SCbDzKgLS3
Have we ever seen a pissed off Patrick Mahomes? I don’t think so.
Also, Reid is probably onto something with this “bulletin board material.” He’s 19-3 straight up following a bye week during the regular season, with two of three losses coming against undefeated teams. Including playoff games, his record is 24-5 when he has an extra week to prepare. For our NFL betting purposes, the future Hall-of-Famer is 20-9 ATS in similar situations.
Sunday Night Football Picks: Chiefs at Raiders
So what’s not to like about betting on the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday night? One thing that has changed about this game over the last few days is the betting spread. As I pointed out on Tuesday when I looked at NFL Week 11 betting lines across the industry, the Chiefs were favored by only 6 points at BetMGM before hovering around -7 until Thursday, when oddsmakers made the line -8.
The move was partly a reaction to news that a handful of Raiders defensive starters were put on the Covid-19 reserved list but mostly because 80% of the betting handle is on the Chiefs, per Scores And Odds. At 65/35 as of Saturday evening, the handle on the Over/Under isn’t quite as lopsided.
The Las Vegas Raiders confirmed that there are no new positives in the latest round of COVID-19 testing, which means safety Johnathan Abram and defensive tackles Maliek Collins and Johnathan Hankins are expected to play.
The #Raiders have had no new positives in COVID-19 testing, which means several defensive players — including S Johnathan Abram and DTs Maliek Collins and Johnathan Hankins — should be on the wire as activated. When today’s test comes back for tomorrow AM, they’ll be good.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 21, 2020
Anyways, there was a reason I suggested locking the Chiefs in as early in the week as possible. In fact, this is a good general rule anytime you’re thinking about betting on the Mahomes and Chiefs. It won’t always work out, but more times than not the spread will move away from the Chiefs, who have become one of the most popular teams for bettors to take against the spread. Now that I mention it, go ahead and grab Chiefs -2.5 vs. the Bucs in Week 12 if you can find it. It also might not be a bad idea to bet on Mahomes +180 to win NFL MVP. Barring an injury, I’m not sure I see anyone else catching up with him, especially if the Chiefs end the season a very plausible 14-2.
Pick Against the Spread: Chiefs -7.5
I won’t be adding to my exposure unless the line moves back down to -7 but using RotoGrinders’ NFL Odds tool we can find the Chiefs -7.5 at PointsBet and William Hill. If I hadn’t grabbed a better number early, then I would be betting on the Chiefs -7.5
Sunday Night Football Pick: Chiefs -7.5
PointsBetting
Similar to the Packers vs. 49ers in Week 9, I think this is another great spot to make a PointsBet.
Turns out last night was a great game to try out ‘PointsBetting’. A wager on the Packers -8 (PointsBet line) would have paid out 9x, since the Packers covered the spread by 9 points.
— RotoGrinders Sports Betting (@RGSportsBetting) November 6, 2020
Find out more about PointsBetting here: https://t.co/Enc7ykEunn https://t.co/8CobXAeoFP
By PointsBetting, you can take the Chiefs -8.5 and win more money for every extra point the Chiefs win by above the PointsBetting spread. Even better, get a $250 risk-free PointsBet by signing up here! Would you be shocked if the Chiefs win by 21 or 28 points on Sunday Night Football? I wouldn’t.
And of course, be sure to read our PointsBet review for more information about the new U.S. sportsbook and their unique twist on betting.
Sunday Night Football Chiefs & Raiders Props
Mecole Hardman UNDER 39.5 Receiving Yards – Hardman has been away from the team for two weeks after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Nov. 11. He was activated Saturday but my guess is that Demarcus Robinson will get most of the snaps. Bieniemy was even talking about Tyreek Hill taking over as punt returner against the Raiders, a role that has largely been reserved for Hardman for the last two seasons.
So, basically, Eric Bieniemy wants to see Tyreek Hill return punts against the Raiders.
— Nate Taylor (@ByNateTaylor) November 19, 2020
Hill already has a punt return for a touchdown against the Raiders in his career.
“Hell, I’m going to get my popcorn as well,” Bieniemy said.
Henry Ruggs OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards (-105) – Racking up 118 yard in Week 5, Ruggs had his biggest game of his rookie season against the Chiefs. I expect this to be a slightly different script, but the Raiders will be playing from behind, giving Ruggs plenty of opportunities.
Tyreek Hill +750 First Touchdown at FOX Bet – Hill can score from anywhere on the field, and he might even have a chance to take an early punt to the house.
Image Credit: Imagn