NFL Week 2 Totals: Over/Unders to Pay Attention to in DFS
NFL DFS analyst Andy Means visits the sportsbook to break down two games with the highest projected point total on the Week 2 main slate. If you want odds for every game, check out this NFL Week 2 betting preview.
Cowboys at Chargers, Over/Under 54.5 Points
If you watched the Cowboys take on the Bucs on Thursday Night Football last week, seeing a total this high probably didn’t surprise you much. While the Cowboys were almost able to pull off the upset (ultimately losing 31-29), a total of 60 points were scored in that game.
However, if you happened to catch a lot of Chargers vs. WFT on Sunday, a total this high might leave you scratching your head. The Chargers did end up getting the win (20-16), but a total of just 36 points were scored.
So why such a high total here?
If I had to guess, I think a lot of it has to do with number of plays expected in this game. If you look back to 2020, the Cowboys (2nd fastest) and Chargers (5th fastest) were two of the five fastest offenses in the league in terms of seconds per play (situation neutral) per Football Outsiders. And while that information isn’t yet available for their Week 1 games at the time I am writing this, the total amount of plays from each Week 1 game are available.
Chargers —> 78 plays in Week 1, which were the 4th most.
Cowboys —> 77 plays in Week 1, which were the 5th most.
So, there you have my $0.02 on why this total is so high, not that any of you should care! But if there are going to be a lot of plays between these teams in Week 2, it stands to reason that we should have a lot of appealing DFS options too. Remember, more plays = more opportunities for fantasy points.
Dallas is an easy place to start, as they showed right from the get-go that they are willing to let Dak Prescott sling the ball around the yard all game long. Check out these numbers that a select few of the Cowboys put up on Thursday against what was one of the best defenses in the league last year (and returned all 11 starters this year).
Dak Prescott: 42 for 58, 403 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT —> 31.42 DraftKings points
Amari Cooper: 13 receptions (on 16 targets), 139 receiving yards, 2 TDs —> 41.90 DraftKings points
CeeDee Lamb: 7 receptions (on 15 targets), 104 receiving yards, 1 TD —> 26.40 DraftKings points
When we ask ourselves the hypothetical question going forward each week “can we double-stack with Dak?”, we will inevitably be looking back to Week 1—for better or for worse—and answering with a resounding YES. With Michael Gallup getting injured in that game against the Bucs (and already getting placed on IR), are we really expecting anything different this week against the Chargers? I’m certainly not.
Speaking of the Chargers, they were kind of like Cowboys Lite when we look at the Week 1 stats from their quarterback and two primary wide receivers.
Justin Herbert: 31 for 47, 337 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT —> 18.38 DraftKings points
Keenan Allen: 9 receptions (on 13 targets), 100 receiving yards, 0 TDs —> 22.00 DraftKings points
Mike Williams: 8 receptions (on 12 targets), 82 receiving yards, 1 TD —> 22.20 DraftKings points
Folks, when these teams throw (and they throw a lot), we pretty much know where the ball is going.
And it’s pretty amazing that I have gotten this far and not even mentioned either running back. Both Ezekiel Elliott and Austin Ekeler are coming off extremely subpar fantasy games in Week 1. Does that mean we see depressed ownership on them in Week 2? This far out, it is tough to tell. But holy cow Zeke is only $6,200 on DraftKings this week and excuse me while I go enter a bunch of contests…
Titans at Seahawks, Over/Under 53 Points
After being on the over (51.5) in that Week 1 Titans/Cardinals game since basically the start of August, I am not bitter at all about how bad the beat was. So there was 51 points scored in the game at the 3:00 minute mark of the third quarter and NOT A SINGLE FREAKING POINT WAS SCORED AFTER THAT? Big whoop. Seriously, I’m not bitter. Stop asking! I promise…I’m fine.
(camera pans over to Meansy finally exiting from his shower cry to sit down at his desk to write this article)
So uhhhh, Titans? What exactly happened there y’all? The first real game with Julio Jones as WR2 and Todd Downing as offensive coordinator (in lieu of Arthur Smith)…did not…go…well. Chandler Jones (and his five sacks) were like, “yeah, good luck throwing to any of those guys Tannehill as I’m throwing you down to the ground on every single drive”. Even the beast, Derrick Henry, had two plunges from the one-yard line in the second quarter that he couldn’t convert.
All of that being said, we sometimes need to remind ourselves to not sit down for a nice edition of Overreaction Theatre. This offense averaged 30.7 points per game last season. Do they have some kinks to work out going forward? Absolutely. Should we expect a bounce-back from them this weekend against the Seahawks? I don’t see why not!
A.J. Brown at $6,900 on DraftKings is looking mighty tasty. And Derrick Henry at $8,300 is enough of a discount from the top 3 RB’s (McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara) to up his appeal on DK. The normal refrain about Henry in the DFS industry is that he isn’t nearly as good of a play on DK due to their full-point PPR scoring. That is all fine and good…except for those games when he busts out for like 200 rushing yards and multiple TDs. Henry had four games last season between 36-40 DK points. Where were you on that one, Mr. Full-Point-PPR-Scoring? Yeah, that’s what I thought!
The Seahawks, on the other hand, were the model of efficiency in their Week 1 game against the Colts. Remember when I said earlier that the Cowboys ran the fifth most plays (77) in Week 1, which helped them get their 29 points? Yeah, well the Seahawks scored 28 points…on just 53 plays!
To say that they were clicking on all cylinders under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron would be an understatement. Russell Wilson racked up 27.06 DraftKings points on just 23 passing attempts. It helps when you complete 18 of them for 254 yards and 4 TDs. Tyler Lockett (29 DK points) was the clear winner, since he caught two touchdown passes. D.K. Metcalf got in the endzone as well, hauling in a 15-yarder in the third quarter.
For the Seahawks to put up 28 points against the Colts defense was pretty impressive. Soooo what in the world are they going to do against this Titans defense that gave up 38 points to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals in three quarters? Well, according to the oddsmakers, they are expecting Seattle to put up 29-30 points in this go-around.
The tricky part with the Seahawks though is that they appear to be priced up (using DK salaries) in Week 2 more than the other groups we have discussed. Take a look…
Russell Wilson, $7,500
D.K. Metcalf, $7,600
Tyler Lockett, $7,200
Chris Carson, $6,100
Ryan Tannehill, $6,300
Derrick Henry, $8,300
A.J. Brown, $6,900
Julio Jones, $6,300
Dak Prescott, $6,800
Ezekiel Elliott, $6,200
Amari Cooper, $6,800
CeeDee Lamb, $6,400
Justin Herbert, $6,700
Austin Ekeler, $7,300
Keenan Allen, $7,000
Mike Williams, $6,100
Can a Russell Wilson double-stack get there? Sure; we’ve seen it happen plenty of times before. But with those expensive salaries, it is going to be much harder to pay those off than, say, a Dak Prescott double-stack.
No matter which way you slice it though, there are going to be plenty of DFS points to go around in both of these games. And as far as I’m concerned, Week 2 can’t get here soon enough.
Image Credit: Imagn