NFL Week 3 DFS Primer: Ownership Projections and Optimizer Picks
NFL Week 3 is officially underway. We saw the 49ers dispose of the hapless Giants fairly easily on Thursday Night Football, and we now have a 12-game Sunday main slate to which to look forward. We’ve already got our premium player and ownership projections live in LineupHQ, but those are subject to change depending on injury situations and other news. Based on practice reports, we’ll have quite a bit of injury news to monitor heading into Sunday morning.
As always, RotoGrinders has you covered with all the content you could ever want to get you primed for Week 3.
NFL DFS Week 3 Optimizer Picks
One major decision point in GPPs this week will be Browns RB Jerome Ford. He looked outstanding after taking over for the injured Nick Chubb on Monday, and Kevin Stefanski said he’d earned the right to be the guy in Cleveland’s backfield moving forward. $4,800 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel is awfully cheap for any running back in a potential bell-cow role.
However, as Erik notes in his weekly NFL DFS Optimizer Picks, Ford will be incredibly popular and facing a daunting matchup against the Titans. As of now, the Browns’ new RB1 is projecting for nearly 27% ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, which is the highest pOWN of any player on the slate. Cleveland will be playing host to a Tennessee defense that ranked first in the league in DVOA vs. the run in 2022.
This isn’t the first time this season we’ve seen a popular value running back facing the Titans. Back in Week 1, Jamaal Williams found out the hard way that this Titans defense is for real. Ditto for Joshua Kelley just last week. Ford doesn’t have much of a track record at the NFL level, either, so we’re going to see significant ownership congregating around what is hardly a proven commodity.
Plus, it’s not like running back value is hard to come by this week. Jahmyr Gibbs could be in for a bigger role if David Montgomery sits. Zack Moss and Miles Sanders are popping in projections at reasonable salaries on DK, while Isiah Pacheco will run you just $100 more than Ford on FD in a tasty matchup at home against Chicago.
Week 3 Ownership Projections
RG’s NFL ownership projections are the most accurate in the industry, and using pOWN to your advantage is a major part of being a profitable player. While fields are sharper than ever, NFL GPPs tend to be a bit softer overall thanks to the boatload of casuals that enter the fray on a weekly basis. Game log watchers are still very much a part of the DFS ecosystem, and we’re all better off for it.
Knowing how your opponents will likely build their lineups can give you insight into how you should build your own. In case you haven’t yet done your research this week, it sure looks as though that Chargers-Vikings clash is going to be the most popular game to target in all formats. It has the highest over/under of Week 3 (54.5) alongside a tight 1.5-point spread. Ford may be the most popular play of the week, but the passing game pieces from both LA and Minnesota are also projecting for significant ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Some of the most popular DK plays heading into Week 3 are:
Jerome Ford ($4,800) – 26.73% pOWN
Justin Jefferson ($9,300) – 25.17% pOWN
Keenan Allen ($7,600) – 19.32% pOWN
Jefferson and Allen are squaring off on opposite sides of what should be the highest-scoring game of the week. Thanks to guys like Ford, it’s pretty easy to afford them, too. This will be a very popular roster construction on DraftKings, especially with a fairly affordable Kirk Cousins ($6,900) anchoring those chalky Minnesota stacks. Allen will be the prime target on the Chargers’ side of things, but Justin Herbert and Mike Williams are both pulling double-digit pOWN on DK, as well.
Some of the chalkiest players on FanDuel this week are:
Jerome Ford ($5,600) – 26.95% pOWN
Justin Jefferson ($9,700) – 25.71% pOWN
Calvin Ridley ($7,500) – 22.72% pOWN
Hmm, this list looks a little familiar, yeah? The lone difference here is Calvin Ridley, who is again emerging as a popular mid-range WR target despite an underwhelming outing as heavy chalk a week ago. Ridley did still draw 8 targets in the loss to the Chiefs, and Vegas expects the Jags to bounce back with a cushy home matchup against the Texans.
Mike Williams ($7,200) is actually projecting for more ownership than Keenan Allen on FD, where Allen is pushing $9,000. Despite Allen’s big game against the Titans last week, it was actually Williams that attracted a team-high 13 targets from Herbert.
NFL PrizePicks Pick’em Plays for Week 3
Pick’em sites are all the rage these days, and they’re seemingly becoming more popular by the day. Even if you come up short in your DFS endeavors, you can still enjoy a profitable NFL weekend if you nail your PrizePicks picks. New users can claim a match bonus of up to $100 using our special PrizePicks promo code.
Below are a couple of my favorite PrizePicks picks entering the second week of the season. Premium members can get a leg up on the field by using our special PrizePicks Pick’em Tool.
Jaylen Warren More Than 15.5 Receiving Yards
The Steelers’ offense generated some buzz over the summer, but it’s looked absolutely awful through the first 2 games of the season. In their defense, they have faced a couple of stellar defensive sides in San Francisco and Cleveland. That doesn’t completely excuse how dreadful they’ve been with the football, but it’s still worth noting.
On Sunday night, the Steelers will hit the road for the first time this season when they face the Raiders in Vegas. This team has racked up a grand total of 96 rushing yards on 31 attempts through 2 games, To this point, only the Vikings have been more pathetic in the ground game. Jaylen Warren hasn’t been a major contributor in that regard, but we have seen the diminutive back catch 9 of his 12 targets for 78 yards through the air.
Getting Warren into space is one way this offense can gain some traction. This week, they’ll go up against a Raiders defense that allowed more than 48 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs just a season ago. I wrote up James Cook to top 12.5 receiving yards against Las Vegas last week, and he wound up racking up 36 in the Bills’ blowout victory.
Given the perfect matchup and Warren’s apparent role in the passing game, this 15.5 total is just too low.
Bijan Robinson More Than 23.5 Receiving Yards
Running back receiving yardage numbers are attackable in general. Through just 2 games, it’s easy to see why the Falcons used a top-10 pick last spring on Bijan Robinson. The ex-Longhorn has been on the field for more than two-thirds of the Falcons’ snaps to this point, and it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect that number to rise moving forward.
This week, the Falcons will play in Detroit in a game with track meet potential. Domed games are generally favorable environments for offensive production, and the Falcons haven’t been shy about using their prized rookie in the passing game. Bijan has already caught 10 of his 11 targets for 75 yards and a TD.
Robinson has had more than 23.5 receiving yards in both games, and he’s a home run threat every time he gets his hands on the ball. For what it’s worth, the Lions have also yielded more than 23.5 receiving yards to RBs in each of their first 2 games of the year.