NFL Week 3 Lines and Betting Picks
NFL Week 2 concludes Monday night as the Jets take on Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns. While we wait for Monday Night Football to kick off, let’s take an early look at NFL Week 3 lines and betting picks.
Monkey Knife Fight Plays for Thursday Night Coming Soong
Don’t live in a state with legal online sports betting? Click the following link to bet on NFL player props at Monkey Knife Fight and get up to a $500 deposit bonus using the promo code GRINDERS.
Now let’s look at the NFL Week 3 lines and my favorite early betting picks.
NFL Week 3 Lines and Betting Picks
All NFL Week 3 betting lines referenced herein are from FanDuel Sportsbook and accurate as of Monday morning.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 O/U 40
The Jacksonville Jaguars need to bounce back from an 0-2 start if they want any chance at making the playoffs. Tennessee opens as 1.5-point favorites after losing a close one to the Colts. Rookie Gardner Minshew has impressed as he fills in for in Nick Foles. Minshew’s 45-for-58/3TDs/1INT state line through two appearances won’t scare away bettors from backing the home dog. I expect this to move closer to a pick’em by Thursday.
Early Lean: Jaguars +1.5
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills -5.5, O/U 42
The Bengals looked much more like the team most people were expecting in week 2 than they did in week 1. Cincinnati got trampled 41-17 as they gave up 259 yards on the ground and another 313 in the air. The Bills have only been larger than 5.5-point favorites once since December 2016. They get the benefit of doubt at online sports sites after scoring 21 first-half points and beating the Giants 28-14. I have a tough time giving that money points with Buffalo. I’ll probably stay away from a side on this one, but do lean over. The Bengals offensive line is cause for trepidation, but both teams have offensive threats that can score quickly.
Early Lean: Over 42
Denver Broncos vs. Green Bay Packers -7.5, O/U 43.5
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense looked much more in sync in Week 2. They jumped out to a 21 start before letting the Viking roar back, but their defense stepped up to close the deal. While a bit stagnant in the second half, Cheesheads are rightfully optimistic after starting the season with two division wins against two worthy opponents. The Broncos’ backs are up against the wall after losing to the Bears. Denver is 0-2 thanks to an offense that hasn’t elicited any explosiveness. After losses against Oakland and Chicago, Denver’s back is up against the wall as 7.5-point favorites. I think this one will have a lot of similarities as Week 1, including two top defenses that will slow down scorings. Give me the early under (43.5).
Early Lean: Under 43.5
Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts -2.5, O/U 47.5
The Falcons recovered from a disappointing Week 1 showing by beating the Philadelphia Eagles in a wild Sunday night game. Similarly, the Colts are 1-1 after a road win in Tennessee. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones love playing in a dome but the Colts defense won’t look welcoming. Atlanta’s offense had problems moving the ball for most of Sunday night. The total is more likely fall, so I’m hopping on Under 47.5.
Early Lean: Under 47.5
Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs -6.5, O/U 53.5
In only their second seasons, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are already the two most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL. Mahomes’ arm makes him a human cheat code, and you can say the same about Jackson’s legs. Mahomes has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his first two games while Jackson has been perfect as well. Last time these two quarterbacks met, they went into overtime at Kansas City. My gut tells me 6.5 points is too much to give
Early Lean: Ravens +6.5
Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles -7.5, O/U 49.5
The Lions beat a wounded Chargers team, and in hindsight, their Week 1 meltdown versus the Arizona Cardinals doesn’t look as bad after the Cardinals were competitive with the Ravens in Week 2. The Eagles played from behind in both games. The difference between the two was that the Eagles couldn’t pull out a win against the Falcons. As the Lions showed against the chargers, they actually prefer playing slow. Detroit will give their running backs a healthy share of carries. 49.5 seems too high in this one.
Early Lean: Under 49.5
Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys -21, O/U 47.5
The Dallas Cowboys are insane 21-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins. So far, Miami hasn’t covered the spread by an average of 34.5 points. The Cowboys offense has looked reinvigorated by the play-calling of first-year OC Kellen Moore. While the Dallas hype train is revving its engine, their first real test won’t come until next week at the Superdome. After that, they host the Packers. When it comes to this game. 21 points seem like an awful lot, but we might not be able to fathom how bad this Dolphins team truly is. After taking 18.5 points against the Patriots, I’m licking my wounds and staying away from this one.
Early Lean: Pass
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots -17.5, O/U 47.5
From 18.5-point favorites to 17.5-point favorites, not much has changed for the Patriots. What has changed is the addition of Antonio Brown, who hauled in a touchdown pass in his first game in a Patriots uniform. The Jets still have Monday Night Football to play and there’s a lot of speculation regarding the health of Sam Darnold and Le’veon Bell. For that reason, I’ll pass on this one too.
Early Lean: Pass
Oakland Raiders vs. Minnesota Vikings -7.5, O/U 43.5
The Raiders jumped out to a 10-0 lead against Kansas City. That didn’t last long, but we can’t knock Oakland for losing to Mahomes. A slow start cost the Vikings. Minnesota trailed 21-0 in Green Bay, but gave themselves a chance to win. Kirk Cousins, who finished 14-for-32 with 2 INTs, can be blamed for the slow start. The Vikings will continue to establish the run with Dalvin Cook so long as Cousins puts out sloppy performances. While Cousins has looked sloppy and overpaid, Oakland has been better than expected in their first two outings. Give me the 7.5 points.
Early Lean: Raiders +7.5
Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals +2.5, O/U 45.5
Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers have to get it together against the Arizona Cardinals, which isn’t as easy of a game as it was thought to be before Week 2. Though the Ravens defense was playing a man down, Kliff Kingsbury’s new spread offense did enough in the fourth quarter to give the Cardinals a chance. Now they need to figure out how to show up in the first half. Newton’s arm hasn’t looked right and the Panthers have curiously refused to run even quarterback sneaks with their once dual-threat quarterback. I’m backing them at Carolina -2.5, so hopefully they go back to doing what made Newton look great in the first place. I can see this one moving to -3 before long.
Early Lean: Panthers -2.5
New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5, O/U 48
The Dolphins are saving the Giants from being the laughingstock of 2019. Eli Manning threw 2 interceptions on Sunday and the roars for Daniel Jones are getting louder than ever. It’s not just Eli Manning who is the problem. The defense has given up nine touchdowns in two games. Four of those were on behalf of the Bills in week 2. Tampa Bay’s defense has its problem, but I have a tough time betting Over 48 points win Manning and Jameis Winston are the two quarterbacks.
Early Lean: Under 48
Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers -3.5, O/U 48
The Texans barely scraped out a victory over the Jaguars and rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. The Chargers defense only gave up 13 points in Week 2, but they couldn’t score enough points to get the W. The Texans’ offense looked great in Week 1. That performance is truer to their form than we saw on Sunday. Considering the Chargers added to their injury concerns on Sunday, I want to take the 3.5 points early.
Early Lean: Texans +3.5
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cleveland Browns +2.5, O/U 51
I’m not as high on the Rams as most people, but I don’t want to hop on the Browns before Monday Night Football. I don’t see this spread moving too much either way, so I’ll set back and pounce on the home dogs as soon as they come out of their Week 2 game without any major injuries.
Early Lean: Browns +2.5 (AFTER MNF)
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Redskins +3.5, O/U 42
The Chicago Bears were bailed out by a curious roughing the passer penalty in the final seconds of their games against the Broncos. Despite their win, Mitch Trubisky and the Bears don’t look anything like the did in 2018. Washington fell to 0-2, unable to produce enough offense to keep up with the Cowboys. I have no idea how good or bad the Bears are, so giving up 3.5 points on the road is too much for me. Nothing looks too appealing here.
Early Lean: Pass
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images