NFL Week 3 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2024)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 3 NFL survivor pool strategy, previewing his favorite survivor picks of the week as well as teams to watch out for.
Week 3 NFL Survivor Revival
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NFL Week 3 Survivor Strategy and Picks
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2024, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Unfortunately, in Week 2, I was one of the many casualties of Black Sunday. Baltimore led 16-6 midway through the 3rd quarter, but Lamar Jackson threw an interception, and the Ravens went 3 & out on their final two meaningful drives of the game, losing 26-23 as 9-point home favorites.
Still, we know that many readers, like me, participate in multiple survivor tournaments, so we will be keeping this article going forward for those fortunate enough to be alive in their pools. Each week, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one 6+ point favorite that is on upset alert. Even after Baltimore’s surprising loss, our teams to trust are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS since the beginning of 2023. Our teams on upset alert are 4-7 ATS in that same time period, with 4 of those teams losing outright as greater than a touchdown favorite.
If looking for any advice on games not mentioned in this article, don’t hesitate to reach out to @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter/X or @nickgalaida in the RotoGrinders Discord! Our goal is to continue providing high-quality research and survivor options for the remainder of this NFL season.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Week 3 NFL Survivor Pick: San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers certainly didn’t look like world beaters in a Week 2 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, but they were only outgained by 4 yards, and they actually had 7 more first downs than Sam Darnold and company. San Francisco didn’t manage many big plays, but they still had the 6th-best success rate of any offense in the NFL this past weekend and were within a single score for the majority of the 4th quarter.
Obviously, turnovers happen, and they impact the outcome of games, but it’s difficult to overstate how much Brock Purdy’s 3rd quarter interception deep in their own territory hurt San Francisco’s chances of winning. Purdy threw an interception with 7:04 left in the period from his own 13-yard line. Minnesota ran one play after taking over possession and scored a touchdown. The net result of those two consecutive plays was worth nearly 20% of win probability. Purdy then fumbled on San Francisco’s subsequent drive after he had led the team into field goal range, taking the game from being relatively competitive at 13-7 to the Vikings having a 93.6% win probability.
All of that is to say that the 49ers were still mostly competitive in a game in which they gave away at least 10 points in the second half alone. In Week 3, they get to face the Los Angeles Rams, which are quickly becoming the most injured team in the NFL.
Entering play this past Sunday, the Rams already had LT Joe Noteboom, LG Steve Avila, WR Puka Nacua, and CB Darious Williams on injured reserve. In Week 2, WR Cooper Kupp and LG Jonah Jackson were both injured and are expected to miss “extended time,” per head coach Sean McVay.
Facing an Arizona team that lacks premier defensive talent, Los Angeles managed only 10 points, 14 first downs, and 245 yards of total offense. They were outgained by 244 yards, allowed 24 first downs, and only had 23 minutes of possession. Even in a poor showing, the 49ers managed 399 yards of total offense and had 34 minutes of possession.
Division matchups inherently carry an increased risk because of the team’s familiarity with one another. That being said, there isn’t a team in the NFL right now that is dealing with nearly as many injuries as the Rams. This is a great bounce-back opportunity for Purdy and the 49ers to get back over .500.
Week 3 Survivor Fade: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-0. Yes, Baker Mayfield and company are coming off of an upset win on the road against the heavily-favored Detroit Lions. No, this team is not a contender.
Tampa Bay won 20-16 against Detroit in Week 2, but if these two teams play that game 10 times, the Buccaneers probably lose 9 times. A win is a win, but the way in which they won that football game was incredibly lucky. Not only did Tampa Bay survive a pair of Detroit drives into their territory in the final minute – they were also outgained by 247 yards, allowed 12 more first downs than they earned on offense, and they lost the time of possession battle handily.
Tampa Bay’s offense finished Week 2 ranked 26th in success rate, and their defense ranked 14th in success rate. The Buccaneers were also 16th out of 32 teams in defensive pressure rate, so they weren’t doing much of anything particularly well. Their win took “bend but don’t break” to an entirely new meaning.
Heading into Week 3, the Buccaneers get a favorable matchup against Bo Nix, who has looked thoroughly overmatched in his first two NFL starts. Still, it’s worth noting that Denver actually out-gained Pittsburgh this past weekend and had a lead at the half on the road in Seattle in Week 1. Turnovers and penalties have cost the Broncos back-to-back contests, but their pass rush has been good, and their defense overall has been very respectable.
If the Buccaneers are once again without star safety Antoine Winfield, and especially if they are without Winfield and star defensive tackle Vita Vea – the Broncos simply need Nix to be mediocre to give them a chance for a road upset in this spot.
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