NFL Week 4 Betting Picks: Seahawks at Cardinals
The Seattle Seahawks opened as 3-point road favorites and the line has moved to 5.5 at online sports betting sites. The total opened at 46 and has increased a point to 48 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Now, let’s break down the odds and look at NFL Week 4 betting picks for Seahawks at Cardinals.
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks – Seahawks at Cardinals +5.5, O/U 48
The Seahawks are one of the few teams in the league that actually have a winning record with a negative point differential this season. Seattle made the playoffs last year with an extremely run-heavy offense, but they haven’t looked quite the same in 2019. Their defense has faced two different backup QBs and one team that has a well below average offense, yet they still rank near the middle of the league in non-adjusted DVOA. As I hinted at earlier, this Seahawks team may have a winning record but the teams they faced have a combined record of 2-7. Of those 2 wins, 1 of them was with Drew Brees at the helm, and one of them came against the Seahawks on the road with Teddy Bridgewater under center. Through the first three games the Seahawks have a 1-point win, a 2-point win, and a 6-point loss at home. Now they play on the road as a 5.5-point favorite.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been a different story. This team has been involved in two close games but have yet to squeak out a win. In week one, Arizona managed to take the Lions, a potential playoff team, to overtime and first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury started his NFL career off with a tie. In Week 2, the Cardinals managed to stay within a touchdown on the road in Baltimore. This Cardinals defense may be one of the worst in the league, but its pass-heavy offense has shown spurts of potential with a handful of offensive weapons for Kyler Murray. Larry Fitzgerald is putting up number you would not expect from a 36-year-old, Christian Kirk has proven to be a solid second option, and although we haven’t seen a whole lot out of David Johnson in the running game, he is still one of the best pass-catching backs in the NFL. Outside of the Panthers game, which was within one point up until a 76 yard rush with 2 minutes left in the 3rd, Arizona has been perfectly capable of keeping games close. The line for this game opened at -3 and with 2/3rds of the public betting on the Seahawks it has jumped all the way to Sea -5.5.
My NFL Week 4 Betting Pick: For all the reasons stated above, I think the obvious pick here is the Cardinals. Again, both teams have a tendency to keep games close and I think that Seattle is generally overrated this season. They have clearly taken a step down from 2018. This could be a result of paying many of their star players who have retired early, i.e. Doug Baldwin and Cam Chancellor. Additionally, this Seahawks team has struggled in divisional games over the past few years, especially games against the Cardinals. Over the last six matchups between the division rivals, the Seahawks have gone 3-2-1, winning only one game by more than three points. This game is likely to be within a field goal and the Cardinals have a better chance to stay within the spread than people think. I’d wait until this line moves to +6, but even at +5.5 I really like it. Cardinals +5.5 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)
NFL Week 4 Player Props
David Johnson: Over 3.5 Receptions: Outside of the second game when Johnson ended up injured, the veteran running back has two games with 6 receptions. This Cardinals offense is playing at one of the fastest paces in the league and Johnson is being lined up as a WR at a higher rate than nearly every other RB in the league. He should end up with 7-10 targets in this game, and if he only has a 50% catch rate (which is a conservative estimate) he should easily crush the over on this prop.
Russell Wilson: over 259.5 Passing Yards: Yes, the Seahawks have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league of the last season in a half, but I expect that to change in this matchup. Not only will they be getting a higher volume of plays to run in this matchup due to a high pace of the Cardinals, but the Cardinals are easily one of the worst defenses in the league against the pass and have yet to hold a passer under this mark — they’re allowing an average of over 300 yards passing to opposing QBs. Carson is being met at or behind the line of scrimmage at one of the highest rates in the league this season. To combat that, I expect the Seahawks offense to lean towards the pass going forward. This line is way too lof for Wilson, who should air out the ball early and often in this matchup.
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks — Monkey Knife Fight Player Props
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight props for the Seahawks at Cardinals:
2/2 Rapid Fire: Russell Wilson Total Fantasy points vs Kyler Murray and David Johnson Total Fantasy Points vs Tyler Lockett