NFL Week 4 Player Props: Bets for Jackson, Sanders, and Moore
Well, our luck ran out… Week 3 saw a 6-0 props record worsened to 6-3. Not one of my three props were even close to coming through. We are going to reflect upon those decisions, dust ourselves off, and try again. Let’s rebound in Week 4 with some NFL player props.
Last week was pretty rough. Reflecting upon my selections, I picked Ryan Tannehill for a passing over, the rushing over on Saquon Barkley, and the over on Bobby Woods’ receiving yardage. Tannehill was never really close to throwing for better than 250 yards in a game that the Titans controlled. Saquon flirted with his number against a bad Falcons team but could not get anything going in the second half. Robert Woods never really came close in an offense that seems to only have one consistent target monster — Cooper Kupp. The Robert Woods prop was likely very shortsighted — not considering the uptick in volume for Tyler Higbee and the presence of so many weapons for Matthew Stafford.
There is no sense in wallowing. We started strong and we can rebound. Let’s pick a few winners this week. Here are my favorite props for NFL Week 4.
Make sure to check out our game breakdowns in the sports betting section and some NFL betting tips prior to diving into this weekend’s action.
NFL Week 4 Player Props
Lamar Jackson Over/Under 192.5 Passing Yards
The Ravens were able to snatch a victory from the nearly locked jaws of defeat. Oh, the Lions. In any event, as knockout pool selectors rejoice in their good fortune, Lamar Jackson heads to Denver to play the 3-0 Broncos. Jackson and the Ravens remain wildly inconsistent this season but see a matchup with a team that has only beaten teams without a victory.
Thus far, Denver allows 162.3 passing yards per game to less than stellar competition. While Lamar Jackson is a very dynamic player, nobody will convince me that he is a truly consistent passing threat. A lack of consistency from his receiving corps has not helped Lamar this season — Marquise Brown dropped two walk-in touchdowns last week for a big sum of yards. So, while those yards will come around, the Baltimore offense does not want to air it out. The Ravens want to get ahead and wind the clock.
Speaking of slowing the game down, Denver allowed a measly 54.0 plays per game over the first three weeks — third least in the NFL. Playing with a lead enabled the Broncos to grind the clock down and nobody is better at keeping possession and making smart decisions than Teddy Bridgewater. Lamar will see his volume reduced for an offense that already would prefer not to throw.
I am not concerned that Lamar has gone over this number three times already. Give me the under for 1.1 units.
PROP: 1.10 u on Jackson Under 192.5 Yards (-110) at BetMGM
Miles Sanders Over/Under 57.5 Rushing Yards
The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-2. No. That is not a typo.
The Kansas City Chiefs are also pretty large favorites on the road this weekend in Philadelphia. At the time of this writing, the Chiefs are laying 7 points against the Eagles. The Eagles are coming off back-to-back stinkers against San Francisco and Dallas but get to welcome a team that is clearly struggling on the defensive sides of the football.
Teams are very incentivized against the Chiefs to keep Patrick Mahomes and company off of the football field. Consequently, the biggest weakness the Chiefs’ defense brings to the table is a very, very leaky rushing defense. Dating back to last year, the Chiefs give up big chunk plays to opposing backs and quarterbacks. Unsurprisingly, the mark this year is 5.4 rushing yards per attempt for the Chiefs — tied for second-worst in the NFL.
Miles Sanders has not been featured much but is coming off of two tough opponents. The Eagles will undoubtedly use the athleticism of Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders to open up the offense. Further, any success on the ground limits the opportunities for Patrick Mahomes to cook. I suspect Sanders will see his biggest workload of the season. Give me the over.
PROP: 1.15u on Sanders Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at PointsBet
D.J. Moore Over/Under 77.5 Receiving Yards
D.J. Moore put together a monster performance against the Houston Texans on one of the worst Thursday Night Football games we will endure until… well, probably until the next really bad game in a few weeks. In any event, the Panthers make moves to Dallas to play the scorching hot Cowboys in what is likely going to be the most popular DFS spot of the week.
Moore is the clear bring-back for people in love with stacking the Cowboys and Dak Prescott this week. Clearly the alpha without Christian McCaffrey, Moore will be featured heavily if the game goes the way of bookmakers’ projections. Expect a lot of throws on both sides with an implied total north of 52 points at the time of this writing.
I love the price at FanDuel. Most books consistently feature the -115 starting point and don’t stray very far. Projected for more than 90 receiving yards in many spots, I will happily take the discounted price. Give me the over and all of Moore’s targets to close out a hopeful rebound week.
PROP: 1.15u Moore Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-102) at FanDuel
Good luck this week! Share your prop picks with Joe on Twitter @JoeCistaro.
2021 NFL Player Props Record: 6 – 3
Net Winning: +2.56
Image Credit: Imagn