NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Vikings at Giants
The Minnesota Vikings opened as 5.5-point road favorites and the line has moved to -5 at online sports betting sites. The total opened at 46 and has decreased to 43.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Now let’s break down the odds and look at NFL Week 5 betting picks for Vikings at Giants.
NFL Week 5 Betting Picks – Vikings at Giants +5, O/U 43.5
It’s not too often that we see two teams with the same record, but have the home team as a 5 point dog. The Vikings come into this game playing a fairly tough schedule this season playing 3 teams which were in the playoffs last year, while the Giants come into this game having only played 1.
The Vikings are a completely different team this year. While they may have a very similar roster to last year, they have completely changed the way they run their offense. They are currently paying their QB and WR’s a massive amount of money this year, but they have been the second run heavy team in the league this year running on 52.65% of their plays. Dalvin Cook has been fantastic this season, but it’s an interesting strategy considering that this matchup is one that favors the pass game much more than the run game and considering that the Vikings have two of the best pass catchers in the league in Theilin and Diggs. Looking at their schedule overall, their two loses have come against two potential playoff teams in the Bears and the Packers (both on the road) and their two wins have come against below average teams in the Falcons and the Raiders at home. Overall, while the hype of the Vikings coming into the season may have been a little too high, they are still an above average team.
The Giants came into this season with most people expecting them to be in the cellar of both their division and their conference. They have played much better this season than most people expected and a large part of this comes with Danny Dimes coming in to take over for Eli Manning, as the Giants are 2-0 since he has taken over. Their is a decent amount of personnel news in this game as they will be without their star running back Barkley, but they get Golden Tate back from his 4 game suspension. While Barkley being out another week is a big hit, Tate is one of the more underrated receivers in the league and should be a massive boost for this passing game as Jones was forced to pass to either Engram or Shepard on virtually every single play.
My NFL Week 5 Betting Pick. To me, this line seems way to high. The Giants are playing at home and have come into this game hot, so giving up 5 points seems way too high, especially considering how low the total is for this game. While the Giants D has been horrible this week and the Vikings should be able to do some damage against it, 5 points is a lot to give up on the road against a team that isn’t that much worse. I absolutely love the Giants here. Giants +5 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)
NFL Week 5 Player Props
Daniel Jones: Over 232.5 Passing Yards: To me, this prop is essentially a lock. Not only is this an incredibly low number here, but Jones is also getting a massive boost in the passing game having Tate come back here. Tate is a fantastic WR and Jones has been good so far. The Game script here should favor Jones as they are projected to be behind in this game, and without Barkely in the offense we can expect the offense to rely a bit heavier on Jones.
Wayne Gallman: Over 2.5 Receptions: While Gallman is a drastic downgrade from Barkley, this is still a team that relys heavily on passing to the running back. Last week, Gallman was targeted 7 times and although we cannot expect that volume this week, he should be in for a heavy amount of volume this week. This prop is essentially a lock here.
NFL Week 5 Betting Picks — Monkey Knife Fight Player Props
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight props for the Cardinals at Bengals:
2/2 Over/Under: Kirk Cousins Under 233.5 Passing Yards and Daniel Jones Over 232.5 Passing Yards