NFL Week 9 Betting Picks: Colts at Steelers
The Indianapolis Colts opened as a pick’em against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the line has moved to Colts -1 at online sports betting sites.
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NFL Week 9 Betting Picks – Colts at Steelers +1, O/U 42.5
This line stuck out like a sore thumb to me early in the week and my mind hasn’t changed since. Sitting atop the AFC South with a 5-2 record — just two games shy of going Over their 6.5 win total (post Andrew Luck’s retirement — have been great all season. They’ve gotten to this point despite a fairly difficult schedule. The Colts started the season with an OT loss against the Chargers who, although they’ve been bad this season, were nearly at full strength at the time. Their next loss was against the Oakland Raiders who have actually been a decent team so far. Outside of that, they have wins against the Titans, the Falcons (not good), the Chiefs (very good), the Texans (very good) and the Broncos. They have faced several very good teams so far this season and have gone 5-1 since Week 1 when Brissett was barely entrenched in the offense after the surprise retirement of Luck. Looking at the Colts, they really don’t have a weak spot in their offense so long as T.Y. Hilton is healthy.
Unlike the Colts, the Pittsburgh Steelers have fallen well below expectations, in large part, thanks to the injury of Ben Roethlisberger. While they have had a similarly tough schedule, their lone win against a decent team was against the Chargers who were riddled with injuries. Their other two wins, both of which were at Heinz Field, were against two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Bengals and the Dolphins.
Looking at these teams, we can check to see if there is a single spot where the Steelers have an advantage. On defense, the Steelers get the slight edge against the Colts. While DVOA shows the Steelers as the much better defense, they have allowed similar numbers as the Colts, the difference being the Colts defense faced much better offenses like Falcons, Chiefs, and Texans. Looking at the offensive line, I give the edge to the Colts. QB? Indianapolis again. While the Steelers may have a slight edge in the running game, Conner is questionable this week and if he doesn’t play, the Colts are at a big advantage. Overall, the Colts are a much better offense and are a similarly good team on the defensive side of the ball.
NFL Week 9 Betting Pick. This should come as no surprise, but I’m taking Indianapolis here. To me, they are a significantly better team that people seem to be way too low on. I think that this line may just be an overreaction to the Colts barely beating the Broncos at home last week. While that wasn’t impressive, they are a much better team than was on display in Week 9. Honestly, I think the Colts are a 7-point better team on a neutral field, so I love the Colts -1 on the road.
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NFL Week 9 Betting Picks — Player Props
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight props for the Colts at Steelers:
Mason Rudolph: Over 236.5 Passing Yards
Jacoby Brissett: Over 226.5 Passing Yards
Juju Smith-Schuster: Under 5.5 Receptions