NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 12
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
New Orleans at Atlanta
| New Orleans Saints | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
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| Thurs – 8:25PM ET | Georgia Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -7.5 | 53 | 30.25 | 7.5 | 53 | 22.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.8 | 2 | 2 | 23 | Offense | 21.4 | 22 | 6 | 31 | |
| Defense | 18.3 | 5 | 3 | 17 | Defense | 29.2 | 29 | 22 | 30 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta | 25 | 24 | 29 | 8 | New Orleans | 3 | 16 | 6 | 5 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Colston | 56 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | White | 36 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 9.0 | |
| Stills | 35 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | Douglas | 74 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 9.0 | |
| Moore | 31 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 4.0 | Davis | 12 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | |
| Graham | 91 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 11.0 | Gonzalez | 78 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 8.0 | |
New Orleans Saints
The Saints come into their divisional Week 12 matchup off the heels off two huge wins at home against playoff contenders. They broke the NFL record for first downs in a game in their Week 10 dismantling of Dallas then grinded out a tough game against the 49ers last Sunday. Now they take to the road where they’re just 2-2 on the season. Their passing game will be facing a struggling Atlanta secondary, who Brees picked apart for 357 yards and 2 scores in Week 1. They’ve allowed multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season and QBs are averaging 18.5 FPPG-against over the past 4 games. Brees and his receivers are throwing on 66% of downs, which is in the top quarter of all NFL teams this season. Despite all that throwing, they are still leading the NFL in time of possession as well, at just under 34 minutes per game.
An even better matchup for New Orleans may come on the ground, where the Falcons have been absolutely demolished in recent weeks. Here are their last 4 weeks stat lines:
- Week 8 vs. ARI: Andre Ellington 15 carries, 154 yards, 1 TD
- Week 9 vs. CAR: Stewart, Williams and Tolbert 28 carries, 109 yards, 1 TD
- Week 10 vs. SEA: Marshawn Lynch 24 carries, 145 yards, 1 TD
- Week 11 vs. TB: Mike James 30 carries, 163 yards, 2 TD, 1 RecTD
It’s been ugly against a mix of quality and subpar running games. For the Saints, it looks like Darren Sproles will come down to the wire as a true game time decision on TNF. In the event he sits, both Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas will see a heavy dose of touches in what Vegas expects to be an easy New Orleans victory. If the Saints get out ahead, much like we saw against Dallas in Week 10, Ingram could be an impact player in the 2nd half.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons season is all but lost, landing at 2-8 following a defeat at the hands of the Buccaneers on Sunday. This team lost some close games early then folded up shop once Julio Jones, Steven Jackson and Roddy White went down. The good news is that they play host to a divisional rival on national TV on Thursday night and that should be enough motivation to encourage them to bring their best. Their offense relies heavily on the pass, with Matt Ryan throwing on 70% of plays throughout the season. When these teams met earlier in the year, Ryan threw for 300 yards and a couple of scores in the Week 1 loss. The Falcons receiving corps looks a lot different with Harry Douglas replacing Julio Jones, and Ryan’s targets have changed each week. Last week, four players were targeted 7 or more times including Darius Johnson who saw 7 passes thrown his way.
On the ground, it’s been a long season for Steven Jackson who totaled 100+ yards in Week 1 against the Saints (rush+receiving) but hasn’t come all that close since. It’s pretty hard to believe (even with the 5 games missed due to injury), Jackson has found the end zone just one time this season and has 0 rushing touchdowns. Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling also factor into the mix and Jacquizz has been seeing a good work load despite the return of SJax. Here are the Falcons snap count percentages for their running backs in recent weeks:
- Week 8: Jackson – 58%, Rodgers 42%, Snelling (Out)
- Week 9: Jackson – 56%, Rodgers 44%, Snelling 4%
- Week 10: Jackson – 50%, Rodgers 29%, Snelling 21%
- Week 11: Jackson – 44%, Rodgers 38%, Snelling (Out)
Jacquizz seems to be back and forth on his snap counts, likely seeing more opportunities in games where the Falcons need a more athletic pass-catching back on the field. And Jackson’s snap counts have been slowing declining in recent weeks.
NO @ ATL – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Drew Brees – There’s no doubt Brees is fantasy relevant in this one, seeing as he threw for over 350 yards and 2 scores in their last matchup. He always plays well in any dome and draws the 25th worst defense vs. quarterbacks. If you’re playing the Thursday games, Brees is a Top-3 QB this week and has thrown for 300+ yards in each of his last 4 games.
- New Orleans Running Backs – If Sproles plays, he’s a great candidate for a big game on the turf in Atlanta. If he sits, Pierre Thomas presents an instant value option who can pick up some yards on the ground but is most dangerous on full point PPR sites. All of the Saints running backs should be considered GPP plays only.
- Jimmy Graham – Much like how you can’t avoid Brees on any given week, you can’t ignore Graham. Graham hasn’t hit value for his high salary in the past 2 weeks, which led to a salary drop on FanDuel, DraftStreet, DraftDay and DraftKings this weekend. He can’t be slowed down for long, and makes for a strong play in any format on Sunday.
- Matt Ryan – The Saints haven’t allowed any quarterback to throw for more than 130 yards in each of the last 3 weeks. But that could be changing as injuries mount in their secondary and the Falcons will most likely be playing from behind and throwing often (as if their league leading 70% pass play percentage wasn’t enough). I think Ryan makes for an interesting, site-dependent GPP play. On most sites, he’s priced between the 12th and 20th highest salary QB. The site to avoid him on would be DraftKings where he’s still the 6th highest priced QB option this weekend.
- Jacquizz Rodgers – While the Saints pass defense has thrived, there’s no doubt their run game is still a weakness. Steven Jackson may be back for the Falcons but if this game goes as the spread would indicate, Atlanta might be playing some catch up which will lead to increased passing downs and some potentially nice value for Jacquizz.
- Harry Douglas – Douglas appears to be the real deal and while the 49ers were unable to take advantage of NO’s loss of Kenny Vaccaro, the Falcons have two solid receiving options so they could find some luck through the air to Douglas. In the last 5 weeks, Douglas has gone over 100 yards receiving on 3 separate occasions, with the other 2 being against 2 of the best defenses in the NFL in Seattle and Carolina.
Carolina at Miami
| Carolina Panthers | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Sun Life Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -4.5 | 41 | 22.75 | 4.5 | 41 | 18.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.8 | 15 | 28 | 10 | Offense | 21.3 | 24 | 20 | 24 | |
| Defense | 13.5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | Defense | 22.5 | 12 | 19 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami | 6 | 29 | 4 | 28 | Carolina | 1 | 12 | 2 | 15 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Smith | 82 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 6.0 | Wallace | 85 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 6.0 | |
| Lafell | 61 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 8.0 | Hartline | 84 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 13.0 | |
| Ginn Jr. | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | Matthews | 36 | 3.7 | 8.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Olsen | 58 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 8.0 | Clay | 60 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 7.0 | |
Carolina Panthers
Full disclosure, I’m a Patriots fan and I’m going to try and bite my tongue when discussing this Panthers team and how they were extremely fortunate to escape Monday night with a victory. Regardless, this team has put itself in the conversation as a legitimate SuperBowl contender over the past couple of weeks. Earning a huge road victory then returning home to beat a playoff team on national TV is nothing short of impressive. Unfortunately for fantasy, they haven’t been all too valuable. They get it done by controlling the tempo of the game. They rank 2nd in the NFL in time of possession per game and first in third down conversion rates, at 48.4%. Their rushing attack ranks 7th on PFF’s team ratings and their rush blocking is 2nd overall on those ratings. But as referenced above, the time share in their backfield eliminates much of the Panthers value. Below is the rush attempts breakdown for Williams, Tolbert and Stewart since Jonathan Stewart returned.
It’s a mixture of the hot hand and balancing touches evenly, and even though they have 2 or more backs on the field on around 20% of downs, the time share makes them nearly worthless in DFS.
Through the air, it’s all about Cam Newton who draws one of the more volatile pass defenses in the NFL. In the last four games they’ve held two QBs under 150 yards passing and allowed 2 to reach right around or over the 300 yard marker. Much of this can be connected to their front seven, which PFF has rated as the 2nd best pass rush in the NFL and they’re averaging 3.3 sacks per game over the last 3 weeks. If they’re able to get pressure on Newton, he could struggle a bit but his athleticism should allow for more time than someone like Tom Brady was able to get in Week 8.
Miami Dolphins
It all starts with the decimated offensive line in Miami. It looks like Mike Pouncey will be the latest casualty on that O-line and the protection for Tannehill as well as the blocking for Miller and Thomas is getting even shakier. Tannehill will face a Carolina secondary that did show some vulnerability against New England last weekend, allowing Brady to throw for 296 yards, 1 score and (coughs) intercepting him once. What makes Carolina the #1 defense vs. QB’s though is their bend don’t break mentality on defense. They’ve allowed big yardage to the likes of Russell Wilson, EJ Manuel, Mike Glennon and Sam Bradford this season but have yet to allow a single quarterback to throw for multiple scores. I’d be surprised if Tannehill was able to break that trend this weekend, as he’s only had multiple touchdown passes in 4 of 10 games this year.
On the ground, it’s a murky situation between Miller and Thomas that I would avoid when you combine the Offensive Line troubles with the teeth of Carolina’s defense, their front seven. If the matchup is strong, you can roll the dice on a running back time share. But against a team this solid up front, there are better places to find value.
CAR @ MIA – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Cam Newton – Newton is the headliner and one of the few QBs you can use in a GPP without a handcuff. He’s the 4th or 5th highest priced QB on nearly every DFS site this weekend except FanDuel, where he’s the 8th highest priced QB. Considering his ceiling is as high as any quarterbacks for fantasy, he’s a terrific DFFC qualifier play.
- Greg Olsen – LaDarius Green and Antonio Gates combined for 130 yards on 8 catches with a TD last week against Miami and the tight end position continues to be an exploitable spot against MIA. They rank 28th against opposing tight ends and if their front seven is able to create pressure on Newton, he may find himself checking down to Greg Olsen more often than usual. He makes a nice GPP or H2H play this weekend.
San Diego at Kansas City
| San Diego Chargers | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Arrowhead Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 5 | 41.5 | 18.25 | -5 | 41.5 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.8 | 17 | 4 | 16 | Offense | 23.2 | 16 | 26 | 11 | |
| Defense | 22.2 | 11 | 27 | 16 | Defense | 13.8 | 2 | 9 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City | 7 | 7 | 12 | 1 | San Diego | 29 | 8 | 28 | 19 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Allen | 60 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 6.0 | Bowe | 72 | 7.1 | 13.0 | 14.0 | |
| Brown | 53 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | Avery | 51 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | |
| Royal | 44 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.0 | McCluster | 52 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 8.0 | |
| Gates | 80 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 6.0 | Fasano | 20 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | |
San Diego Chargers
The Chargers head to KC on the heels of their third straight loss. The over/under here is a measley 41.5 points and the Chargers are 5 point road underdogs, so don’t come into this one with the typical expectations you might have for Rivers and company. The good news is Keenan Allen, Vincent Brown and Ryan Mathews will all likely take the field. The Chargers also boast the 3rd best time of possession average per game and one of the top 3rd down conversion rates (likely thanks to 3rd down machine Danny Woodhead). While Rivers’ ceiling might be a little lower than usual this week, it’s worth noting that the Chiefs have allowed every QB for the last 9 games to throw for over 200 yards and a TD, so they haven’t exactly been annihilating their opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs are also struggling with getting after the QB. They’re averaging 3 sacks per game on the season but have totaled just 1 in their past 3.
PFF has KC’s defense as 3rd best in pass coverage and pass rush, and 2nd overall in run-stopping which could eliminate the value of Ryan Mathews who blew up for 127 yards in Week 10. Last week, that Chiefs defense held Knowshon Moreno to just 79 yards on 27 rush attempts for a paltry yards per attempt average under 3. Their linebackers have been great against the screen outlets as well, with only 1 back going over 50 receiving yards on the season, so it might be a long day for Danny Woodhead.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs will look to bounce back from their first loss of the season and head to Arrowhead to take on San Diego. The Chiefs offense has been heavily reliant on the run and short passes all season. Alex Smith 5.92 yards per pass attempt ranks last in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks and Jamaal Charles is involved in nearly 42% of the teams red zone plays. While Smith’s fantasy numbers looked OK last week (230 PaYd, 50 RuYd, 2 PaTD), he is running into the same issues that plagued him as a member of the 49ers. He can maintain a lead for his team, but he can’t throw the ball efficiently enough to score with the premiere quarterbacks in the NFL. If the Chiefs have a lead, he won’t turn the ball over and he’ll maintain that lead. But when KC is trailing, he just doesn’t have enough ability to chase down an opponent.
Moving onto Charles and the rushing game, it’s now been 5 games since Jamaal topped 100 yards and he’s actually only accomplished that on one occasion this season. He also hasn’t scored in any of the past 3 games. He’ll draw a Chargers defense that has really only been exploited once all season, when Alfred Morris busted out for 120+ yards in Week 9. Still, Charles has value every week because he catches a ton of passes out of the backfield. He’s been targeted an average of 7.5 times over the past 2 games by Smith and although that’s only lead to 12 total receiving yards, you can expect he’s going to produce more with those targets sooner rather than later.
SD @ KC – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Philip Rivers – He’s relevant this weekend because he’s an underdog and the Chiefs haven’t really impressed me in terms of shutting down opposing quarterbacks. Their sack numbers have been down in recent weeks and an injury to one of their starting D-linemen, Mike Devito, means they’ll be just a little softer up front this weekend. Rivers could have time to throw and could spread KC out much like Manning did with a number of passing options and exploit their defense.
- Keenan Allen – Just look at what some WR1s have done to KC so far this season before you completely ignore Allen:
- Dez Bryant – 9 rec, 141 yards, 1 TD
- Victor Cruz – 10 rec, 164 yards, 1 TD
- Kendall Wright – 6 rec, 74 yards
- Denarius Moore – 5 rec, 82 yards, 1 TD
- Andre Johnson – 4 rec, 89 yards
- Josh Gordon – 5 rec, 132 yards, 1 TD
- Demaryius Thomas – 5 rec, 121 yards
Add in the fact that Allen’s price dropped on every daily fantasy site this week and he makes for a cheap, GPP play.
- Jamaal Charles – Charles is always a relevant option and while he has the toughest matchup of all the Chiefs vs. SD, he can be relied on for 15+ fantasy points nearly every week. I would avoid him in tournaments this week, but consider him in H2H or 50/50s.
- Dwayne Bowe – Bowe can be owned for $5K on FanDuel, $7K on DS, and $5.2K on DK this weekend so before even starting this discussion, know he’s relatively cheap. Bowe has 124 receiving yards on 11 catches and a TD over the last two games while being targeted a whopping 26 times. The matchup is one of the best, and he’s finally producing for KC. And look at what he did last year vs. SD:
- 2012 – Week 4: 7 rec, 108 Yards, 1 TD
- 2012 – Week 9: 8 rec, 89 yards
He’s not consistent, but Bowe makes for a nice tournament play on Sunday.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | FirstEnergy Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 1 | 41 | 20 | -1 | 41 | 21 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.6 | 20 | 7 | 30 | Offense | 19.2 | 28 | 18 | 26 | |
| Defense | 24.5 | 19 | 8 | 26 | Defense | 23.8 | 17 | 4 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland | 15 | 19 | 9 | 20 | Pittsburgh | 9 | 23 | 10 | 12 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Brown | 105 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 10.0 | Gordon | 81 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 15.0 | |
| Sanders | 76 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.0 | Little | 70 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.0 | |
| Wheaton | 12 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | Bess | 66 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 6.0 | |
| Miller | 49 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 13.0 | Cameron | 78 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 7.0 | |
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers come into their matchup against Cleveland having won back to back games at home against the Lions and Bills. The big storyline from Week 11 was Antonio Brown monster game where he was a top-3 fantasy receiver and racked up 2 touchdowns with 7 catches and 147 yards. Big Ben was one of the highest scoring QBs of the week as well, totaling 367 yards and 4 TD passes. One man who went a bit unnoticed though was Heath Miller, who caught 8 balls for 67 yards on 10 targets. It was the first time Miller saw double digit targets this season, but it was likely due to the early injury to Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders is expected to play this weekend so I wouldn’t count on Miller seeing that same type of production. This passing game has a decent matchup this weekend at Cleveland, who haven’t allowed any Quarterback over 300 passing yards on the season but have allowed multiple touchdown passes in 5 consecutive games. They’ll likely shadow Brown with Joe Haden, who locked down A.J. Green in Week 11 for just 2 catches. If he eliminates Brown, then expect to see Emmanuel Sanders see a heavy dose of targets against some of the weaker Cleveland secondary players.
It’s a good matchup in the running game for Pittsburgh as well and Le’Veon Bell has been able to produce fairly consistently despite an extremely shaky offensive line that ranks in the bottom-10 of the NFL in rush blocking. Week 11 marked the 4th consecutive game where Bell had at least 3 catches and 25+ yards receiving as well, so he’s proven to be a nice PPR threat. Cleveland has proven a bit vulnerable against pass-catching backs, allowing around 40 yards per game in the air to RBs. Bell has also been essential to the Steelers success on third down, and over the last 3 weeks they rank 8th in the NFL at a 38.3% conversion rate.
Cleveland Browns
The story for the Browns starts and ends right now with Josh Gordon. Gordon is quickly redefining the ‘boom or bust’ game for other players, as he seems to either go over 100 receiving yards and find the end zone, or get shut down for 3-4 catches and 40 yards. Gordon has also been the decidedly favorite target of Jason Campbell. In three games with Campbell he’s been targeted 32 times. The other Cleveland weapon, Jordan Cameron, has been quiet of late and really only managed to produce last weekend in garbage time. He and Campbell just don’t seem to be on the same page and Cameron’s price continues to drop as a result.
On the ground, there has been an emergence of Chris Ogbonnaya that should get daily fantasy players excited as the Browns face a rush defense that has been decimated at times this season. The Steel Curtain is no more and Pittsburgh can be exploited on the ground. Ogbonnaya ran for 69 yards in Week 11 and caught 6 balls for 30 more yards. He was also targeted an incredible 12 times in that game. The Steelers don’t allow a whole lot of receiving yards to opposing backs, but Ogbonnaya is dominating the snap counts and should see touches both on the ground and in the passing game here as PIT will focus on slowing down Gordon on the outside.
PIT @ CLE – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Ben Roethlisberger – In tournaments, it’s impossible to ignore this guy. He has four monster games this season mixed in with a bunch of below-average performances, but his ceiling is as high as anyone’s. I worry a bit about the pace of this game, but Big Ben should still be considered in GPP formats.
- Emmanuel Sanders – I’m leaving Brown off the fantasy relevant as Joe Haden has been a bad, bad man defensively for Cleveland of late. Sanders should see a heavy workload as the 2nd receiving option for Roethlisberger and has great full-point PPR value on sites like DraftKings. He’s also cheap this weekend, with a salary at $5.7K on FD, DS and DK. The most value their would be on the $100K DraftStreet cap.
- Le’Veon Bell – Bell is the safest of the Steelers options this weekend against Cleveland. His incorporation in both the rushing and passing games makes him a consistent player for head to heads and 50/50s. He can be owned for the biggest bargain on DraftKings, where he’s the 17th highest priced RB (compared to his average salary rank across all sites of 11.43).
- Josh Gordon – Just considering what Calvin Johnson did to the Steelers last week, you have to put Gordon in play. Much like Big Ben, Gordon is strictly a GPP play. His ceiling is 30-35 fantasy points, but his floor is somewhere in the 5-8 range.
- Chris Ogbonnaya – The Steelers really aren’t very good at stopping the run and the struggles of Reggie Bush a week ago weren’t exactly related to Pittsburgh’s stout defense. Ogbonnaya has emerged as the top RB option in Cleveland and has nice PPR value to boot. At $4.6K on FanDuel and $3.5K on DraftKings, he is an extreme value that can allow you to afford some of the pricier guys in Week 12.