NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 12 - Page 4
Denver at New England
| Denver Broncos | New England Patriots | |||||||||
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| Sun – 8:30PM ET | Gillette Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -2.5 | 55.5 | 29 | 2.5 | 55.5 | 26.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 39.8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | Offense | 25.4 | 8 | 16 | 9 | |
| Defense | 25.5 | 23 | 28 | 4 | Defense | 19.9 | 7 | 12 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England | 18 | 18 | 15 | 13 | Denver | 24 | 21 | 20 | 27 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Thomas | 93 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | Amendola | 44 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 7.0 | |
| Welker | 87 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 10.0 | Dobson | 67 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 7.0 | |
| Decker | 82 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 | Edelman | 78 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |
| Thomas | 62 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | Gronkowski | 40 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 7.0 | |
Denver Broncos
It’s almost December, so when you see Peyton Manning heading to New England for a night game, the first thing you should do is check the weather. It’s going to be under 30 degrees and windy in New England, which should heavily temper these two offenses. It just might affect Manning a little more though, as he’s been traditionally seen as a QB who struggles in cold weather games. This is true in the playoffs, but not exactly spot on for regular season play. Since 2006, his QB rating in games where it’s 30 degrees or colder (again, not including playoffs), has been 102.7. It’s a decline from his normal numbers, but not a severe drop-off.
For the rest of the Broncos passing game, it looks like Wes Welker will play and face his former team on Sunday night. Maybe more important than Welker is the health of breakout TE Julius Thomas who is officially listed as questionable but there are growing concerns that he won’t be able to take the field. Thomas would be a matchup nightmare for the Patriots linebacker corps, who already struggled against the pass before losing their defensive captain Jerod Mayo early in the year. New England has allowed an opposing TE to go for over 50 yards on four different occasions and the only TE they really shut down was Jimmy Graham as Aqib Talib played inside and covered Graham in man coverage all game. Speaking of Talib, he struggled at times against Steve Smith last week and the two nearly came to blows about 3-4 times. But when I saw struggled, let’s not forget that Smith only had 4 catches for 60+ yards. Talib is questionable for this game but it would be surprising not to see him out there covering Demaryius Thomas. It would be a tough matchup for the big, physical Thomas as Talib specializes in shutting down larger receivers.
So that leaves Welker and Decker (if Julius is unable to play), for Peyton to throw at. My guess would be Belichick does everything in his power to take away Welker, out of pure spite, but there’s no real statistical measure to back that up. The Pats are dead last against WR2’s in the NFL and Brandon Lafell got to them for 80 yards and a score in Week 11. Both Decker and Welker have great potential against this defense.
On the ground, the Patriots can be run on up the middle. Their defensive ends and linebackers are athletic enough that it’s difficult for backs to get to the edge, as seen by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in Week 12, but they’re decimated by injuries in the middle gaps and if Denver can commit to their running game with Moreno he should be able to break a number of 10-15 yard runs right up the gut. Last week was the first time in the past 5 games where New England didn’t allow 100 yards on the ground.
New England Patriots
I’m more than open about it, but the Patriots are my favorite team but I do try and stay even-keeled when discussing their fantasy value. With that said, I’m a huge believer in playing guys for your favorite team and not against them. If you are cheering for your team to do well AND one of their opposing players to have a big game, well you’re really just not going to enjoy the game.
Now that my random streaming thought is out of the way, the Patriots will look to bounce back in Week 12 following a tough loss at the hands of a really strong Carolina team. It doesn’t get easier as the 9-1 Broncos come to town. The good news for New England last week was the return of Shane Vereen who Brady targeted 11 times with 8 completed and 65 yards. Vereen is a monster for PPR and plays primarily third down for the Patriots. Denver’s allowing 37 receiving yards per game to opponent running backs and Vereen could see much more than just the third down snaps if New England falls behind.
In the air, Brady and the passing game seem to be clicking over the past 2 games. Brady went for 296 and a TD in Week 11 against a tough Panthers defense after throwing for 434 yards and 4 TD against the Steelers. The Broncos defense isn’t nearly as intimidating as the Panthers or Steelers, and they’re allowing 298.6 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks including a 280 yard game to Terrelle Pryor, 300 yard game to Chad Henne, and last week’s 230 yard 2-TD game against Alex Smith. They have however been able to limit opponent wide receivers from posting ‘the big game’ in recent weeks. No individual receiver has had more than 60 receiving yards in any of Denver’s past four games. They have however been moved on by tight ends, allowing 6 different tight ends to have 50 yards receiving or more and giving up 3 receiving touchdowns in the last 6 games to TE’s. Gronk saw his targets dip in Week 11, and was only thrown at 7 times which was a factor of good defense combined with the return of Vereen who is another safety valve for Brady in that offense.
DEN @ NE – Daily Fantasy Relevant
Disclaimer: This game is the highest projected scoring game of the weekend. Nearly every skill player who plays a sizeable role will be relevant, and most are listed below, but feel free to post questions about anyone else in this game (or others) in the comments if they are not listed
- Peyton Manning – He’s relevant whenever he steps on the field. He’s extra relevant when the game is expected to be close. In the three games decided by less than 8 points for the Broncos this season, Manning is averaging 30.4 fantasy points per game. He’s the most expensive QB on every site for this weekend’s games, and will be worth the price tag in any game format.
- Knowshon Moreno – Players in this game are going to be heavily owned. Moreno might be a guy that you can play from Denver and maintain a slight contrarian edge in tournaments. Moreno is heavily involved in the passing game and coming off a down week where Montee Ball stole the show, but this Pats front seven can be gashed up the middle and the two sites he stands out price-wise are DraftStreet at $10377 and DraftDay at $12850.
- Wes Welker and Eric Decker – Add Demaryius to this list if Talib is unable to go, but I do think that Talib (if healthy) can limit him to the point where he doesn’t reach value for his high price tag. Welker will be heavily owned because of the revenge factor and the Patriots struggles against WR2s. And the most contrarian, and possibly best tournament option, will be Eric Decker who always seems to be overlooked. He’s a steal on FanDuel at $5800 and DraftStreet just under $10K.
- Julius Thomas – Be sure to check his status but he rounds out the list of every Broncos skill player being fantasy relevant this weekend. He’s a good head to head play with decent upside, and a near must-have for cash games on DraftKings at $5300. That price is offensively low.
- Tom Brady – Even I had started to believe that Tommy Terrific maybe wasn’t quite as terrific after his tough start to the 2013 campaign. But his completion percentage is over 70% for his last two games and he has his full array of weapons available to him. His $7200 price on DraftKings and $11800 price on StarStreet stand out to me the most, but he’s a strong option on all sites.
- Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley – I’ll make this one straight forward. Full point PPR, get Vereen in your lineups. He’s played 2 games this season and has been targeted 21 times. He’s terrific on third downs and while he might not find the end zone, he can still produce value without earning pay dirt. In non-PPR you can consider Ridley, although he’s more of a tournament play than anything.
- Aaron Dobson – Here’s your value GPP play from this projected high-scoring game. Dobson’s average depth of target according to ProFootballFocus is 12.3 yards, which is in the top-25 of all receivers who have played at least 25% of snaps. The Broncos have struggled against deep passes and Dobson has shown both the big play ability and to be a reliable option for Brady in the red zone, where he’s been targeted 10 times this season. I love him at $6K on DraftStreet and $4900 on DraftKings.
- Rob Gronkowski – Not much to say about Gronk outside of the obvious. You’re going to pay top dollar for him this weekend and with Graham playing on Thursday night your tight end choice will likely come down to Gronk vs. the field. The Broncos struggle against TE’s and while you won’t hear an argument from me if you roster him, I do think there’s a lot of value at the tight end position this weekend so it may be a good place to save.
San Francisco at Washington
| San Francisco 49ers | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
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| Mon – 8:40PM ET | FedExField | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -5 | 47 | 26 | 5 | 47 | 21 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.7 | 12 | 32 | 5 | Offense | 24.6 | 13 | 11 | 1 | |
| Defense | 17.8 | 4 | 10 | 12 | Defense | 31.1 | 30 | 26 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington | 28 | 31 | 26 | 23 | San Francisco | 5 | 22 | 8 | 4 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Boldin | 76 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 9.0 | Garcon | 109 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 10.0 | |
| Manningham | 10 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | Robinson | 14 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3.0 | |
| Patton | 2 | 0.5 | Moss | 49 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 7.0 | |||
| Davis | 54 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | Reed | 59 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 1.0 | |
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers come into Washington having lost 2 tough games in a row and their offense is sputtering. The offensive struggles were understandable against a tough Panthers defense, but in New Orleans their QB failed to go over 150 passing yards and their RB failed to reach 50 rush yards. That’s just not going to win ball games, no matter how good their defense is. Luckily this weekend they’ll see the ultimate offensive-struggle remedy; the Washington defense. To get a sense of just how bad Washington’s defense has been, PFF has them rated as the worst overall defense, 2nd worst in rush defense and again dead last in pass coverage. Nick Foles fell 2 yards short of becoming the 5th QB to post a 300+ yard game against them and 7 receivers have now gone over 100 yards against their secondary. They rank in the bottom-10 in every defense vs. position ranking, so it’s no surprise they’ve allowed 8 rushing touchdowns in the past 4 weeks as well. Kaepernick has a golden opportunity to get back on track, and he’ll need to rely heavily on Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis to do so.
Boldin saw 9 targets in Week 11 and will be the popular play of the receiving options for San Fran, but Mario Manningham may be the upside pick of the week against the Redskins secondary. Washington has struggled against burners and Manningham will do that more often than the physical Boldin. They’ve also allowed some huge games to WR2s on the year:
- Week 2 vs. GB – James Jones – 11 catches, 178 yards
- Week 3 vs. DET – Nate Burleson – 6 catches, 116 yards
- Week 7 vs. CHI – Alshon Jeffery – 4 catches, 105 yards
- Week 8 vs. DEN – Wes Welker – 6 catches, 81 yards, 1 TD
On the ground, you have to wonder if Gore is finally running out of steam. He’s been playing consistently between 70% and 80% of snaps all season and is 7th in the NFL with 175 rush attempts. His touches have been declining for 5 consecutive weeks now and last week against the Saints he rushed just 13 times. I like the matchup, and it will help that he had an extra rest day this week as SF plays on Monday Night, but there is growing concern about his energy as the season wears on.
Washington Redskins
Fire everyone! Apparently it’s an all out disaster in Washington as the Redskins are 3-7 (and sadly still somewhat in the NFC East mix). After their 2nd straight loss, this team is searching for some semblance of hope or direction. The good news for fantasy is that RG3 has 260+ yards in each of his last three games to go with 40 rush yards in each of his past 2. He’ll face a 49ers defense that maybe shouldn’t scare people away as much as they do. They’ve allowed strong games to Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, Jake Locker and Drew Brees at the QB position this season, and big rushing games to Marshawn Lynch, Ahmad Bradshaw and Arian Foster. They still seem capable of limiting opponents from turning the ‘solid game’ into a ‘huge game’, as only 3 WRs have gone over 100+ yards receiving (and none since Week 6) and no running back has reached the 100 yard threshold. It’s a tough defense to read, but for the most part you should be considering Redskins in GPP formats only.
One final note on the Redskins, Leonard Hankerson will miss the remainder of the year. Hankerson was Washington’s WR2 option and was never consistent enough to be daily fantasy relevant. Aldrick Robinson and Josh Morgan will take over his snaps at that WR2 slot.
SF @ WAS – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Colin Kaepernick – Facing the 28th ranked defense vs. Quarterbacks puts Kaep in play in tournament formats this weekend. He’s struggled recently but for daily that would usually mean you’d get him at a bargain. But given the matchup his price went up on all but 2 sites (FanDuel and FanThrowDown). His best overall value is on DraftDay though, where he’s the 14th highest priced QB.
- Anquan Boldin and Mario Manningham – I like both options for tournaments only, much like their QB. Boldin has been one of the most volatile WRs in football this season in terms of fantasy output, but he found the end zone last weekend and could be turning a corner. Manningham has the right skill set to create matchup nightmares for the Redskins. He’s under $4K on DraftStreet and is certainly worth a flyer in the DFFC qualifiers.
- Vernon Davis – I’m listing him here to describe why I’m not a huge Vernon fan this weekend, but realizing that he’s probably going to be a popular pick so he needs a fantasy relevant breakdown. He’s been targeted only 10 times in his last 3 games and he’s only picked up more than 4 receptions in 2 games all season. He has one game where he really exploded, and is a consistent red-zone threat, but his ceiling is lower than many people would expect. That makes it tough to pay for him as a top-5 tight end in any week.
- Alfred Morris – The one guy I’ll be sprinkling into lineups from the Redskins is Morris against the 22nd ranked defense vs. RB’s. He’ll be a H2H play only and the Redskins will try and get him going early, but the touchdown vultures in Washington eliminate much of his upside. He’s also not featured in the passing game very often, so his value remains solely in rushing yardage.