NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 13 - Page 3
Atlanta at Buffalo
| Atlanta Falcons | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05PM ET | Ralph Wilson Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 3 | 46 | 21.5 | -3 | 46 | 24.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.6 | 24 | 6 | 31 | Offense | 21.5 | 22 | 27 | 7 | |
| Defense | 28.1 | 28 | 24 | 28 | Defense | 24.8 | 21 | 12 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo | 17 | 5 | 30 | 6 | Atlanta | 24 | 24 | 25 | 19 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| White | 38 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | Johnson | 8.8 | 10.0 | |||
| Douglas | 86 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 11.0 | Goodwin | 26 | 3.7 | 6.5 | ||
| Davis | 13 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 | Graham | 39 | 3.7 | 4.0 | ||
| Gonzalez | 84 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 6.0 | Chandler | 60 | 5.5 | 3.0 | ||
Atlanta Falcons
This season couldn’t possibly end fast enough for Atlanta, but they’ll head to Buffalo on Sunday to take on the Bills after suffering their 5th consecutive loss on TNF a week ago. They still have their quarterback though and Matty Ice did have 292 more pass yards in Week 12 despite not finding the end zone. He’ll matchup this week with a secondary that PFF has rated as the 6th best in the NFL in terms of coverage. They’ve slowed three straight QBs, and are 1st in the NFL in FPPG-allowed to quarterbacks over those last three games (at 9.34 FPPG). That success plus the home field advantage for the Bills makes Ryan a much less appetizing option, but the 3.3 sacks per game from Buffalo’s front seven has to worry you even more. Ryan has an NFL QBR of just 75.5 when blitzed this season and 65.1 QBR when under pressure. Buffalo brings a lot of pressure on the edge and that could severely diminish Ryan’s value. The one bright spot for the Falcons continues to be Harry Douglas, who saw 11 more targets in Week 12 and had a 9 catch, 79 yard game. If you want to target someone in this passing game, Douglas may be the best bet. He’s Atlanta’s best wideout right now and the Bills have allowed pretty big games to Dwayne Bowe, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, Santonio Holmes and Kenny Stills over the last 5 weeks. They won’t get torched by both wideouts, but some deep threats have been able to get over the top of their secondary.
The run game for Atlanta has been abysmal all year. Steven Jackson was supposed to be the solution but by the time he returned from his Week 2 injury the season was all but over. He did manage just under 4 YPC while going for 63 yards and a score against a poor Saints rush D, but on a team that passes more often than any other team, at a 68% of their plays rate, it’s hard to trust any back in this offense. It’s probably best to just avoid the whole situation, especially against a healthy Bills defense that ranks 5th against RBs on the season.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills come off a bye week with their intended QB healthy and most of the weapons around him feeling good as well. Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods are both expected to return for the Bills which is great news for Manuel. Woods has been a forgotten man after rarely being involved with Thad Lewis at the helm. He finally had a decent game with Tuel throwing to him, then got injured and was out two weeks. Well Manuel loves the guy, and the two were developing a serious rapport before Manuel went out in Week 4. Here was Manuel’s target breakdown for Weeks 1-4 with both Johnson and Woods on the field.
- Johnson – 34 targets, Woods – 26 targets, Chandler – 21 targets, Jackson – 15 targets, Graham – 12 targets, Spiller – 12 targets
Woods and Johnson both played well in that span and Woods even had 3 10+ FP games out of those four. The entire passing game will face an offense that has allowed a pass TD in every game this season, and multiple pass touchdowns in all but one game. PFF has their pass coverage rating as the 7th worst in the NFL and 6 QBs have thrown for 250+ passing yards against them with 6 receivers having 100 yard games against them as well.
The run game remains mysterious but everyone seems back on board the Spiller train after he apparently spent the bye week bathing in a magical hot tub that made him healthy. Spiller’s draw remains with his upside and he’s shown in 2-3 games this year that he can break a few long runs and hit value. The other draw is a Falcons rush defense that has now allowed 100+ yards rushing to their opponents for 6 consecutive games. They’ve also allowed the 3rd most FPPG to opposing backs over the last 3 and 5 week splits. Still, Fred Jackson is a big part of this offense and can’t be forgotten. He’s been in an essential time share with Spiller and has shown he has a ton of upside as well, with added value for PPR.
ATL @ BUF – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Harry Douglas – Douglas will likely be the only Falcons player I roster this weekend. The Bills defense is severely underrated and their front seven should be able to wreak havoc on Ryan and the Falcons 5th-worst pass blocking unit. His price is a little higher than what I’d like to pay, but in tournaments he’s worth a gamble on FF, DD and FTD this weekend.
- EJ Manuel – Manuel makes for a tremendous GPP option this week, but he shouldn’t be relied on for any cash games. His best values are on FD at $6300 and DK at $5900, but he’s also a good option on DraftStreet as a QB2 for $10K.
- C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson – I’m not fully buying into Spiller, but I do think one of these backs will be able to break free. The Falcons have been awful against RBs over their last 5 games and both Spiller and Jackson have nice GPP upside. Here’s their price comparison for Week 13 on FD, DS and DK:
- FanDuel – Spiller ($5700), Jackson ($5600)
- DraftStreet – Spiller ($8.2K), Jackson ($9.5K)
- DraftKings – Spiller ($5.6K), Jackson ($5.6K)
Love the price point on Spiller on DraftStreet. On FanDuel and DraftKings, they’ve really made it a toss-up, but if you want to roster one you have some wiggle room to try lineups with either incorporated.
- Robert Woods – I like Stevie Johnson too but Woods can be had for a serious bargain. He’s a min-priced WR on FanDuel this week at $4.5K and he’s the same price on DraftStreet. He’s $500 over min-priced on DK as well at $3.5K. Last but not least, his best value might be at $5K on DraftDay with their relatively loose salary structure. You’d probably be able to build a really solid lineup around him.
Cincinnati at San Diego
| Cincinnati Bengals | San Diego Chargers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25PM ET | Qualcomm Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 1.5 | 48.5 | 23.5 | -1.5 | 48.5 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.0 | 10 | 10 | 20 | Offense | 24.5 | 12 | 4 | 17 | |
| Defense | 18.7 | 6 | 6 | 10 | Defense | 23.6 | 15 | 27 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Diego | 29 | 13 | 29 | 17 | Cincinnati | 7 | 4 | 10 | 7 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Green | 124 | 11.2 | 10.0 | Allen | 72 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | ||
| Sanu | 60 | 5.4 | 6.5 | Brown | 54 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | ||
| Jones | 50 | 4.6 | 4.5 | Royal | 48 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | ||
| Gresham | 52 | 5.2 | 6.0 | Gates | 88 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 8.0 | ||
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy comes off a Week 12 bye with a stronghold on the AFC North. They head to San Diego and Andy Dalton and this passing game has cooled off drastically in recent weeks. Between weeks 6-9, Dalton had thrown for 300+ yards in every game, but in the two games since Dalton has just 360 total pass yards with 5 TDs and 5 INT. The turnovers have been bad for Dalton and dating back three games he has 8 INTs. Luckily, he’ll draw a San Diego defense that has only forced 0.5 interceptions per game on the year, which is bottom-10 in the NFL. That Charger defense has been one of the worst against the pass all season and QBs have averaged 19.33 FPPG against them in their last four games. PFF has their pass coverage aggregate rating as the worst in the NFL which should open up lanes for A.J. Green. In 9 of the Chargers 11 games this season, the opposing WR1 has posted 80+ receiving yards. That defense ranks 4th worst vs. WR’s over their last 3 games and 5th worst over their last 5. Green makes for one of the top-3 wide receiver options this weekend.
The ground game for Cincy has continued to shift in favor of Giovani Bernard and he’s now had a higher percentage of snaps than the Law Firm in each of the Bengals last 6 games. Bernard does some of his damage on the ground, but his fantasy value comes through the air where he’s caught 16 of the 17 targets thrown his way in the last 3 weeks. He’s 13th in the NFL among running backs in terms of targets per game. Even better for Bernard are the 3 red zone touches per game that he’s averaged over his last three games. Bernard is also extremely efficient, and is averaging .43 fantasy points per snap in PPR scoring formats, which 6th best in the NFL according to PFF. The Chargers are middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run and allowing receiving yards to opposing RBs. They’re allowing 38.1 yards per game receiving to backs. What makes Bernard and this Bengals offense dangerous is their ability to spread the field with A.J. Green to open a defense up, then work in quick runs and screens to Bernard for big gains.
San Diego Chargers
The Chargers shocked a lot of people with their offensive outburst in Week 12 in Kansas City. Philip Rivers has quietly been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this season and is completing a league high 76% of passes. He’ll have another tough matchup against a Bengals secondary that ranks 3rd on PFF’s pass coverage ratings on the year. But you have to wonder when the losses of Leon Hall, Taylor Mays, Devon Still and Geno Atkins will finally catch up to this team. Their secondary and pass rush has been devastated by losses. But since Hall went down in Week 8, they’ve allowed just 198 passing yards per game to Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco and Jason Campbell. This Chargers passing game is very different than any of those teams though, and Rivers spreads the ball across all of his weapons well. Cincy has had some weaknesses against WR1’s as well, allowing 80+ receiving yards in 4 of their last 5 games including a 125 yard outburst from Josh Gordon before their bye. This game has one of the highest over/unders of the day and is a pick em so it’s a safe bet that Rivers will be throwing the ball often. If he does, he’ll be playing with a hobbled Antonio Gates who admitted on Friday that if the game was that day he wouldn’t have played. He’s somehow listed as probable but pay close attention to his status on game day. If he doesn’t go (or even if he does), take a look at Ladarius Green. Bryan Fontaine of PFF did an incredible job of outlining Green’s success in his weekly advanced matchup plays column.
CIN @ SD – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Andy Dalton – Dalton is capable of posting the highest stat line of any quarterback this week, but is also capable of dropping a stinker. That leaves him as a GPP-option only. On FanDuel, DraftStreet and DraftDay he’s 72% or less the cost of Peyton Manning this week. On the other sites he’s closer to 80-90% and might not be as strong a value.
- A.J. Green – He’s a safe bet for 80+ yards this week on at least 5-6 catches. I have him listed as my top WR option in Week 13 for cash games, but he still has plenty of upside for tournament play. He’s priced as the #5 WR or lower on every site except DK this weekend where he’s 2nd.
- Giovani Bernard – I mentioned above that he’s 4th in the NFL in fantasy points per snap with half-point PPR scoring. For under $10K on DS, $6.3K on DK and $6.9K on FF he’s a steal but should likely only be used in tournaments with the strong suit of the Chargers defense being on the ground, although Jamaal Charles had a huge game in Week 12 against them.
- Philip Rivers – Again Rivers is a GPP option only against this defense, but at home with a 48 O/U he has a ton of potential. He’s the 12th highest priced QB on DS, 15th on DK, 16th on SS and 13th on FTD. Compare that to 8th on FD where is value is a bit lower.
- Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews – Mathews gets the work on the ground but Woodhead gets the touches in the red zone and receiving game. There’s also some intrigue in terms of playing both in the same tournament lineup. Since Week 7, both Woodhead and Mathews have both scored in four games. In fact, one hasn’t scored a TD without the other finding the end zone in the same game since that Week 7 marker.
- Keenan Allen – The Bengals have struggled at times against WR2’s but I don’t love any of San Diego’s 2nd receiving options. That leaves Allen who was back to getting double digit targets in Week 12. He managed 124 yards on 9 catches and it was the first time in his 4 100+ receiving yard games this season where he didn’t find the end zone.
- Ladarius Green – DraftStreet caught his price up a big, putting him at a shade over $4K this weekend. FanDuel did a bit as well, moving him to $5100. But he’s min priced on DK and near min on DD, FF, SS and FTD. He’s a nice ‘punt the tight end’ option.
New England at Houston
| New England Patriots | Houston Texans | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25PM ET | Reliant Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -7.5 | 47 | 27.25 | 7.5 | 47 | 19.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.2 | 6 | 14 | 10 | Offense | 18.1 | 30 | 11 | 14 | |
| Defense | 20.9 | 9 | 9 | 31 | Defense | 26.3 | 26 | 1 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston | 8 | 15 | 5 | 11 | New England | 14 | 22 | 13 | 18 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Amendola | 50 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 6.0 | Johnson | 119 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.0 | |
| Dobson | 67 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Hopkins | 65 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | |
| Edelman | 89 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 11.0 | Martin | 21 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | |
| Gronkowski | 50 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 10.0 | Graham | 63 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 9.0 | |
New England Patriots
A huge win for the Patriots in Week 12 will be hard to move past as they head to Houston to face a team that has been demoralized since last season’s regular season matchup between these teams. In that game a year ago, the Texans showed up rocking the varsity jackets and left with their tail between their legs. Now Houston is battling for the #1 overall draft pick instead of playoff positioning. Defensively, the Texans rank in the Top-10 in both run defense and pass rush, but they’re secondary is 6th worst in the NFL in PFF’s defensive ratings system. Heading into last weekend’s loss vs. JAX, the Houston defense had allowed 16 or more fantasy points to 5 consecutive quarterbacks. Surprisingly, they’ve yet to allow a 300+ yard passer but are averaging 1.6 pass TDs against. After injuries to Danieal Manning and the release of Ed Reed, their secondary had backups playing both safeties. They should see Kareem Jackson back this week though, for the first time since Week 10. Jackson should start across from Johnathan Joseph and return their secondary to at least a respectable level. Brady and company will also be without a key player this weekend, as Aaron Dobson was surprisingly ruled out after dropping a bagel in Week 12. This should open up more opportunities for Amendola and Gronkowski, but also surprising Week 12 breakout player Julian Edelman. Right now Brady looks like he could throw to just about anyone though. In his last three games he’s completed over 68% of his passes in all three with at 8 touchdowns and no less than 296 passing yards. He’s averaging an impressive 24 fantasy points per game in that time.
On the ground, the mysterious case of Stevan Ridley continued in Week 12 as he fumbled his way to the bench and it’s very questionable as to whether or not he’ll get many touches in Week 13. But it might not be time to jump off the bandwagon on Ridley. According to PFF, he’s averaging the 3rd most fantasy points per snap in PPR scoring formats. He’s extremely efficient when given the opportunities and regardless of Vereen’s return, Ridley is the most talented back the Patriots have. New England is also heavy favorites in this one, and if they get a significant lead there won’t be a ton of passing down situations for Vereen to contribute in. The other option is Brandon Bolden, but his upside is extremely limited as a guy who doesn’t have much explosiveness. Ridley practiced all week with the weighted ball and this optimistic Patriots fan would like to believe that last week was his wakeup call after he watched the better part of 4 hours of football from the sidelines.
Houston Texans
Case Keenum will keep the reigns in Week 13 against New England and his matchup will be made easier based on some major injuries in the Pats secondary. With corner Alfonzo Dennard and safety Steve Gregory already listed as out, there should be some space over the top. The Patriots rank in the bottom-5 in the NFL against WR2’s and with Aqib Talib removed from the injury report, you can expect him to play the majority of snaps on Andre Johnson on the outside. That leaves DeAndre Hopkins who can certainly pick up yards in bunches. Just look at some of the recent stat lines for the Patriots against non WR1’s:
- Week 6: Kenny Stills – 3 Rec, 64 Yards, 1 RecTD
- Week 7: Jeremy Kerley – 8 Rec, 97 Yards, 1 RecTD
- Week 9: Emmanuel Sanders: 6 Rec, 98 Yards
- Week 9: Jerricho Cotchery: 7 Rec, 96 Yards, 3 RecTD
- Week 11: Brandon LaFell: 7 Rec, 59 Yards, 1 RecTD
Hopkins has just two catches over the last two weeks and while he’s been extremely hit or miss, he has a prime matchup against this New England secondary.
The ground game for Houston is a bit perplexing right now, as Ben Tate found the bench early in Week 12 and Dennis Johnson took over. Kubiak claims Tate will be the RB1 again this week which is great news for daily fantasy if he sticks to his word. Knowshon Moreno was able to torch the Patriots for 200+ rush yards last week. Since losing Jerod Mayo in Week 6, two weeks after losing Vince Wilfork, here are the RB stat lines against this front seven (throwing out Week 10 vs. CAR with their 3 headed RB scheme):
- Week 7 – Chris Ivory – 34 RuAtt, 104 RuYd, 0 RuTD, 1 Rec, -2 RecYd, 10.7 FPPG
- Week 8 – Lamar Miller – 18 RuAtt, 89 RuYd, 0 RuTD, 3 Rec, 23 RecYd, 12.7 FPPG
- Week 9 – LeVeon Bell – 16 RuAtt, 74 RuYd, 0 RuTD, 4 Rec, 65 RecYd, 15.9 FPPG
- Week 12 – Knowshon Moreno – 37 RuAtt, 224 RuYd, 1 RuTD, 1 Rec, 6 RecYd, 29.5 FPPG
There should be room to run for Tate and he makes for one of the better running back options this weekend, despite Houston being heavy underdogs.
NE @ HOU – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Tom Brady – Brady has been much improved in recent weeks and his price has risen to boot. He’s still lagging a bit on DK and SS though, where he’s the 16th and 11th priced QB respectively. I like him in those spots, and he could be used in any format.
- Patriots Running Backs – Let’s look at the pricing breakdown for the three Patriots backs this week because they’re all over the place across the industry:
- FD – Pats RBs: Ridley ($6.8K), Bolden ($4.7K), Vereen ($6.2K)
- DS – Pats RBs: Ridley ($5.9K), Bolden ($4.9K), Vereen ($9.8K)
- DD – Pats RBs: Ridley ($6.7K), Bolden ($6.4K), Vereen ($13.7K)
- DK – Pats RBs: Ridley ($5.1K), Bolden ($4.2K), Vereen ($6.5K)
- FF – Pats RBs: Ridley ($86K), Bolden ($74K), Vereen ($80K)
- SS – Pats RBs: Ridley ($10.5K), Bolden ($8.9K), Vereen ($9.3K)
- FTD – Pats RBs: Ridley ($9.6K), Bolden ($7.1K), Vereen ($10K)
On FanDuel, Feud, StarStreet and FanThrowDown you want to be targeting Vereen when he’s right around the same price as the other two. On FTD and FD you can also chase Bolden who is significantly cheaper than the other two. But look at Ridley on DS, DD and DK where his price absolutely plummeted this week. He might be a steal at that price point for GPPs.
- Danny Amendola – I love Amendola this weekend with Dobson out. He’s a tiny $6.8K on DS, $5.1K on DK and $64K on Feud for his best values. Amendola should see a bunch of targets and he plays well on the turf.
- Rob Gronkowski – It’s always an option to plug Gronk in. He’s the clear cut #1 tight end this weekend with Graham in a tough matchup against the Seahawks. Your decision comes down to paying for Gronk or dropping down and punting the TE slot with the likes of Jordan Cameron or someone similar in cash games.
- Case Keenum – With the Texans being heavy underdogs, I fully expect Keenum to throw a lot late in this game. The Patriots are notorious for giving up huge passing yardage when they have a lead, as they drop back into a prevent style defense. He’s a tremendous value on FD at $5.6K and DS at a shade under $10K.
- Ben Tate – Tate is another guy to target after a bad week 12 performance. His price dropped on every site except FantasyFeud this week and he had the largest average propensity drop in pricing of all running backs. He plummeted nearly $4000 on DraftStreet and by $1500 on DK most notably.
- DeAndre Hopkins – Johnson is always in play but he has a really tough matchup against Talib on the outside, so I’ll go after one of the Patriots weaknesses in coverage; the WR2 spot. Hopkins has big play upside and could find success down the field late in this game with Keenum playing catch up. At min price on FanDuel, he could be a terrific tournament option.
- Garrett Graham – Graham has now seen 22 targets over the Texans last two games and is finally showing signs of being the value TE we expected when Daniels went down. He’s still reasonably priced on FD, DS and DK and should see 6-7 catches for 60 or so yards. If he finds the end zone he’ll crush his value.