NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 13 - Page 4
NY Giants at Washington
| New York Giants | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
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| Sun – 8:30PM ET | FedExField | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.4 | 26 | 17 | 25 | Offense | 22.9 | 19 | 15 | 2 | |
| Defense | 25.5 | 24 | 15 | 7 | Defense | 30.7 | 31 | 26 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington | 30 | 26 | 27 | 25 | NY Giants | 18 | 12 | 12 | 23 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Cruz | 102 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 4.0 | Garcon | 122 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 11.0 | |
| Nicks | 77 | 7.6 | 4.5 | Morgan | ||||||
| Randle | 60 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 7.0 | Robinson | 17 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | |
| Myers | 46 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 5.0 | Reed | 59 | 6.6 | 5.0 | ||
New York Giants
The Giants are pretty much out of the playoff picture after their Week 12 home loss to the Cowboys. Eli Manning was once again underwhelming in a juicy matchup and has now disappointed daily fantasy players in the majority of games this season. Just take a look at his fantasy output breakdown for the year:
He has close to no upside, as the blue and orange areas are games where he scored under 15 fantasy points. He has over 15 FP in just 2 of his games this season. And he’s faced a defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in terms of Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs in 8 of his 11 games this season. Let me repeat, he’s faced a bottom-10 defense vs. QBs in 8 of 11 games and has 2 games with more than 15 FP. So the excitement when he gets to face a Redskins defense that is third worst against quarterbacks has to be cautioned. You can however get excited about the Giants receivers. 9 of the 11 WR1’s to face Washington this season have 75+ receiving yards and they’ve combined to catch 7 touchdowns. Victor Cruz saw a season low four targets last weekend, and totaled less than 40 yards receiving for the 3rd time this year. The two times prior to that type of struggle in 2012 he followed it up with 100+ rec. yards in each.
The Giants have also been running the ball a lot more since Andre Brown returned to the offense. They went from a 38.8 rush play percentage on the season to 48.9% rush plays over the last three weeks with Brown. He’s had 69 carries in that span with two 100+ yard games. Brown is playing a ton of snaps, and getting more touches than any other back in recent weeks. Before last weekend against San Fran, the Redskins had allowed 8 rushing touchdowns over their 5 prior games. They don’t give up huge yardage but their red zone defense is atrocious and Brown should be able to find pay dirt in this one.
Washington Redskins
This season is getting out of hand as Shanahan and RG3 quarrel and the Redskins collapse around their leaders. Their defense is one of the three worst in all of football and they haven’t been able to take advantage of an offense that ranks 8th on PFFs overall offense ratings. A year ago, RG3 combined for 170 rushing yards in two regular season matchups against the G-men. He torched their subpar linebacking corps, but this year he’s run for over 50 yards just twice and none since Week 8. The matchup in the overall defense vs. position stats looks strong, but NY is actually 3rd best in the NFL vs. quarterbacks over the last 5 games; holding opposing QBs to just 11.55 FPPG. They have however struggled against WR1’s in the last two weeks with both Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant crossing the 100 yard threshold. Pierre Garcon only played in one of WAS two matchups with the Giants a year ago, but he made the most of it with 108 receiving yards and a TD. It’s also worth noting that without Leonard Hankerson and Jordan Reed last week, Josh Morgan stepped up and had 5 catches for 45 yards on 6 targets. Still, Garcon is the guy to use from Washington and he’s on a 5-game double digit targets streak. Last, Jordan Reed is expected to return which is a huge boost to RG3 and this offense. With two viable threats between Reed and Garcon, RG3 should be able to spread the Giants out a bit. The Giants let Jason Witten grab two balls in the end zone last week and Reed could find similar red zone success.
The ground attack for Washington is 3rd best in the NFL according to PFF’s rush offense ratings and draws a rush defense for NYG that ranks 9th in rush defense ratings. It should be a strength on strength matchup, but the loss of Jason Pierre-Paul for New York will undoubtefly affect both their rush defense and pass rushing. JPP is primarily known for his pass rushing, but he’s actually rated at -6 on PFFs ratings for his pass rush ability and is 7th highest in the NFL with a 9.6 rating for run stopping. That’s a huge blow to the Giants rush defense that hasn’t allowed a 100+ yard back since Week 3 against Carolina. Morris should be able to find some holes with JPP out and gets a huge boost from that injury. What concerns anyone the most with Morris is the fact that he has exactly 0 red zone looks or touches over the last two games. He totaled 10 touches inside the 20 in Weeks 9 and 10.
NYG @ WAS – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Eli Manning – FanDuel, DraftStreet, FantasyFeud and FanThrowDown have him priced as a bottom-10 QB this week so you can consider him there. But do not overpay for him. I showed above his upside has been limited all season and despite a great matchup you just can’t keep trusting him.
- Andre Brown – The Redskins defense is bad all around and if this game stays close then Brown should see a bunch of touches. He’s priced up a bit across the board but he’s a really safe H2H play and has enough upside to be considered in tournaments as well.
- Victor Cruz – With Nicks still banged up, I fully expect Cruz to bounce back from last week’s dud. His price dropped on every DFS site between Weeks 12 and 13, so you can get a stud wideout at a discount. He’s been inconsistent on the year though and remains a GPP option only.
- Robert Griffin III – RG3 doesn’t have the greatest matchup here but his talent can propel him to a big game at any point. His price plummeted on every site except DraftKings, where he rose by $500. He’s a GPP QB2 on DraftStreet this week at $11.7K and I like the $14K price point on DraftDay.
- Alfred Morris – He doesn’t catch many balls out of the backfield so he’s not worth the risk on a full-point PPR site. But FanDuel and DraftStreet are just .5 point PPR and he’s a real low $8900 on DS this week against a depleted Giants front seven.
- Pierre Garcon – Giants secondary has struggled against WR1’s in recent weeks and Garcon is a pretty safe bet for 12-18 fantasy points. He’s a strong cash game play, but his upside is slightly limited, with only 3 games over 20 FP on the year.
- Jordan Reed – Reed is expected to return this week and with that comes some juicy price tags. $5.5K on FD, $6.5K on DS, and $4.4K on DK all stand out to me as strong values.
New Orleans at Seattle
| New Orleans Saints | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Mon – 8:40PM ET | CenturyLink Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 5.5 | 47 | 20.75 | -5.5 | 47 | 26.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.7 | 3 | 2 | 23 | Offense | 27.8 | 2 | 24 | 3 | |
| Defense | 17.8 | 5 | 3 | 15 | Defense | 16.3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle | 2 | 9 | 2 | 9 | New Orleans | 3 | 14 | 7 | 5 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Colston | 61 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 6.0 | Tate | 67 | 6.2 | 5.5 | ||
| Stills | 38 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | Harvin | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| Moore | 33 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 2.0 | Rice | 35 | 4.4 | |||
| Graham | 99 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 7.0 | Miller | 34 | 3.8 | 2.5 | ||
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are rarely 5.5 point underdogs, but playing in Seattle in primetime can be a huge challenge. That 12th man in Seattle is strong but the loss of some key players are weakening the group quickly. This week both Walter Thurmond and Brandon Browner were suspended for substance abuse violations. Richard Sherman is still there though, along with two of the better safeties in the NFL, but they’ll be starting a special teamer at cornerback this week and could be more vulnerable than ever. The Seahawks are 1st in PFFs pass coverage ratings, but Brees faced the 2nd rated team a couple weeks back against San Fran and threw for 305 in a score. If nothing else, the tough matchup here limits Brees’ upside.
The Saints run game has come to play in recent weeks. Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram totaled triple digit rushing yards for the 2nd time in 3 games and NO is rushing the ball at a 4% higher rate in the last three games than they have on the season. Seattle has allowed 4 running backs to combine for 100+ yards in their last 8 games and have been vulnerable in the rushing game. New Orleans will certainly have to rely heavily on those two along with Darren Sproles who is probable to return on MNF.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle comes into a huge Week 13 primetime game with the Saints. Russell Wilson has multiple touchdown passes in five consecutive games. He’s been one of the most consistent quarterbacks for fantasy purposes in the past couple of months. Since Week 5 he’s scored no less than 15 fantasy points in any game. That streak of success will run into a Saints defense that hasn’t allowed an opposing QB to post 15 fantasy points in any of their last 5 games. In fact, NO ranks 4th in the NFL in FPPG-allowed to QBs over the last 3 games. In that span they’ve faced three strong QBs as well; Romo, Kaepernick and Matty Ice. A large part of their success has come from an impressive pass rush that’s averaging 3.4 sacks per game on the season and 3.7 sacks per game over the last three weeks. Wilson should see some pressure this week and could be in serious trouble with the 4th worst rated pass blocking offensive line on PFF’s o-line ratings. It’s also worth noting that he’ll likely be without Percy Harvin this week, although he’s been without Harvin for 99% of the season anyways.
There should be plenty of running room on the ground though, as the Saints rush defense has allowed a rushing touchdown in 5 of their last six games. In that span, Marshawn Lynch has totaled 7 touchdowns of his own to go with two 100+ yard performances. The Saints pace of play and time of possession usually forces opponents to abandon the run early, but that shouldn’t be the case with the Seahawks favored on Monday Night Football. It’s rare that you’ll find a game with the Saints as heavy underdogs, and targeting Lynch may be one of the safer plays of the week.
NO @ SEA – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Drew Brees – I’ll list him because you can’t ignore one of the top-3 quarterbacks in the NFL in any matchup, but he has an extremely difficult matchup and still is priced as a top-3 QB. I’d avoid him this week in all formats, unless you’re putting a bunch of entries into a GPP as he’ll likely be under 5% owned.
- Saints Running Backs – With Sproles back, this is another three headed monster that is impossible to figure out. Thomas is likely the safest bet, and Ingram could have success as the physical back against a physical Seahawks defense.
- Jimmy Graham – Graham might be the best target in the Saints offense, although he has really struggled against physical secondaries this season. New England was able to completely shut him down by bodying him all week and Seattle will take the same approach. Regardless, John Carlson, Tim Wright and Rob Housler have all found success vs. this defense in the last five weeks.
- Russell Wilson – As referenced above, Wilson might be the safest of all QBs available this week. The Saints secondary is good, not great, and Wilson is locked in as a cash game stud. He has good value at just above $12.5K on DS and $12.3K on SS this weekend.
- Marshawn Lynch – Another safe play, I would actually recommend a rare QB/RB pairing in cash games this week as both Lynch and Wilson should easily reach 15 fantasy points. Lynch is a top-5 priced back on every site but at $7.5K on DK he probably has the most value.
- Golden Tate – Tate has 2 20+ fantasy point games in his last 5 to go along with 3 games under 10 FP. He’s a good tournament option from this offense as a boom or bust play. He’s $5K on FD and under $8K on DS, which are both great values. But on DK he’s $6.4K and there are better options available in that price range.
- Doug Baldwin – Since the injury to Sidney Rice, Baldwin has been targeted 20 times in 3 games but saw just 2 looks a week ago with Harvin on the field. Harvin will probably sit and that should open it back up for Baldwin who’s averaging 9 targets per game without Rice or Harvin on the field. At $4.4K on DraftStreet and min-priced on DraftKings ($3K) he’s a bargain bin GPP wideout this weekend.