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NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 14

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-12-08 00:06:46

Editor Note: Make Sure to tune into LIVE Coverage of the FFFC Finals from Las Vegas this Sunday on Grinders Live. Someone is walking away with $1,000,000!

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

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Houston at Jacksonville

Houston Texans Jacksonville Jaguars
Texans Jaguars
Thurs – 8:25PM ET EverBank Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-3 43 23 3 43 20
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 19.2 28 13 14 Offense 14.5 32 23 32
Defense 26.9 27 2 20 Defense 29.3 30 23 29
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Jacksonville 25 24 17 31 Houston 10 20 5 21
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Johnson 128 10.7 10.7 9.0 Shorts 117 9.8 9.0 11.0
Hopkins 71 5.8 3.7 5.0 Brown 32 4.4 2.5 2.0
Martin 22 1.8 2.7 1.0 Sanders 58 5.4 8.7 11.0
Graham 74 6.3 11.0 11.0 Lewis 24 3.4 4.0 4.0

Houston Texans

In a rematch of an embarrassing home loss for Houston just two weeks ago, the Texans take a short week and go to Jacksonville in a battle that might just be for the 1st overall pick in next year’s draft. The good news for Houston in their Week 13 loss to New England was that they actually showed up to play and fought a playoff caliber team about as well as you could expect. It all began with Ben Tate who broke 100 yards rushing while finding the end zone 3 times. Maybe most important were the 82% of snaps that Tate took in that game, compared to just 18% for Dennis Johnson. Tate should see plenty of opportunities this week over Johnson, but don’t ignore the Jaguars improvements on both sides of the football over the last 5 games. They rank 24th against RBs on the season but are 6th in fantasy points allowed to backs over the last 5 weeks.

Much more intriguing for DFS than Tate on the ground is Keenum and the Houston passing game. Keenum didn’t get a passing touchdown in Week 13 but did manage to rush for one and throw for 272 yards with an INT. He had one of his worst games as a starter against the Jags two weeks back but that defense still boasts a pretty porous secondary that will be without starting safety Josh Evans on Thursday night. Losing a starting safety against a QB that has an average depth of target of 10.4 yards per pass (highest among current starting QBs in the NFL), could spell serious trouble and could open up lanes for Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins down the field. Also of note in the HOU passing game has been Garrett Graham, and while he didn’t have his most productive day last weekend he was targeted an impressive 11 times. That makes 33 targets over his last 3 games and in Week 14 he’ll get a Jags defense ranking 31st vs. TEs on the year and 26th over their last 5 weeks. That 11 touch per game for Garrett over his last 3 average is tops in the NFL amongst tight ends. Combine opportunity with matchup and Garrett, not Jimmy, Graham could be looking at a big day. The biggest weakness in Houston’s offense in recent weeks has been third down though, and they’re fourth worst in the NFL over their past 3 games while converting on just 26.2% of third downs.

Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s hard to admit but the Jaguars have been a drastically improved team over the past 4 weeks. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 and while you can’t expect them to knock off a legitimate playoff team, the 3 point underdog spread against the Texans (especially at home) has me a little surprised. In Week 13, Maurice Jones-Drew registered a touchdown for his fourth consecutive game, albeit in an unconventional manner. MJD threw for the first ever non-QB touchdown pass in Jaguars history as he and Marcedes Lewis connected for an 8 yard score. He also got 23 carries and ran for 77 yards in that game against a pretty strong Cleveland defense. He’s now the 14th highest scoring running back over the last three weeks and while his upside has been extremely limited, his consistency has been outstanding. He posted 84 yards and a score in the Jags Week 12 win over these same Texans as well. Houston has allowed a rushing touchdown in each of their last 3 games along with 100+ rush yards to opposing backs in three of their last four games.

Through the air, Chad Henne recorded the first multi-TD game for a Jags quarterback in 2013 last week. He found Cecil Shorts in the end zone late to take the lead over Cleveland. He’ll draw a Texans defense that has some holes to be exploited. The return of Kareem Jackson last week for Houston was supposed to help their defense against slot receivers, but Julian Edelman saw Jackson in coverage for most of the day and managed 52 of his 101 receiving yards against him. Those struggles against the slot could open the door for Ace Sanders, who was targeted by Henne 11 times in Week 13 with 10 of those targets coming within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Sanders now has 60+ yards receiving in each of his last 3 games and double digit targets in two of those three. The other notable option is Cecil Shorts, who has 14 grabs for 135 yards and a score over his last two games. In three matchups vs. the Texans over the past two seasons, Shorts has 232 receiving yards and 2 TDs against. Houston ranks 8th worst in the NFL over the last 5 weeks vs. wide receivers as well. Shorts should see a heavy dose of Johnathan Joseph again, who is 20th on PFFs Corner ratings for pass coverage, but Shorts did manage to catch 5 of the 8 balls thrown his way with Joseph in coverage in Week 12.

HOU @ JAX – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Cleveland at New England

Cleveland Browns New England Patriots
Browns Patriots
Sun – 1:00PM ET Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
10 45.5 17.75 -10 45.5 27.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 19.2 28 12 28 Offense 26.8 6 10 12
Defense 24.8 19 5 5 Defense 21.8 10 10 31
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
New England 13 22 12 13 Cleveland 14 13 10 22
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Gordon 113 11.3 15.7 15.0 Amendola 55 6.9 6.0 5.0
Little 80 6.7 5.7 4.0 Dobson 67 6.5 3.5
Bess 79 6.6 6.3 5.0 Edelman 101 8.4 9.0 12.0
Cameron 95 8.0 8.0 7.0 Gronkowski 62 10.2 9.7 12.0

Cleveland Browns

A heartbreaking loss in Week 12 at the hands of the Jaguars and Cleveland has now lost 3 straight games while scoring 20 or more points in each. In their last two losses they’ve totaled 55 points behind some earth-shattering numbers from Josh Gordon. Over the past three weeks, Gordon has been the highest scoring fantasy player of ALL positions and it’s not even close. He’s averaging 33 fantasy points per game with the next highest being Cam Newton at 25. Gordon will be matched up heavily with Aqib Talib, who looked healthier in Week 12 and played all 60 of NE’s defensive snaps. Talib has been fantastic this season, but his stats are a bit down in 2 of his last 3 efforts against Carolina and Houston. Steve Smith was able to burn him on a couple of deep routes and Andre Johnson had some success on the outside as well. It’s going to be one of the better matchups to watch of the day, but Talib will need to be better than recent weeks to shut down the hottest receiver in football right now. He’s been so good I just reserved an entire paragraph to writing about only him.

The man throwing to Gordon is pretty murky right now for the Browns. A team that’s already started three different QBs for multiple games this season, they could possibly be without Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell on Sunday. It’s unlikely that both would sit, but in that event it leaves Alex Tanney and Caleb Hanie as the only QBs on the Browns roster. Does the name Alex Tanney sound familiar? He’s best known for his football trick shot videos while at Monmouth College. That’s not a joke. I don’t know if any daily fantasy sites reward you for trick shots, but if they do then Tanney is a must-own on Sunday. All kidding aside, this situation is worth watching as the Browns are heavy underdogs and whichever QB is on the field will be forced to throw a ton.

On the ground, Willis McGahee finally got it going a bit in Week 12 and did manage to find the end zone for just the 2nd time this season. Still, he saw the fewest snaps among Browns backs at just 25%. Ogbonnaya saw 53% and Whittaker took 29%. It’s too bad the situation here isn’t clearer, as there’s plenty of clarity when it comes to targeting the Patriots rush defense. They’ve now allowed 100+ rush yards in 7 of their last 8 games and in the last two weeks, let’s see how two of the most pass-heavy offenses have fared against this depleted front seven:

Running lanes are wide open without Wilfork and Mayo but it doesn’t seem like Cleveland is committed enough to the run to get any of their backs over 20 touches. McGahee has the best shot after 14 a week ago, but he’s also the only RB on the Browns to get 20 or more carries in a game all season and he’s done it just 2 times. In fact, over the last 3 weeks no one has passed more than the Browns, who are throwing on over 70% of plays in that span (over 5% more often than the 2nd highest team, Atlanta).

New England Patriots

The Patriots continue to get behind early then wake up in time to win ball games, but as 10 point home favorites it’s unlikely to see that happen again in Week 14. The conversation for the Patriots starts through the passing game, and Tom Brady has found his rhythm and returned to being a Top-5 Quarterback, regardless of matchup, for DFS purposes. Over the last 5 weeks, only Nick Foles is averaging more FPPG than Brady who’s crossed 20 FP in 3 of the four games that New England has played in that span. His receiving corps may be short-staffed this weekend though as Aaron Dobson has yet to return to practice and Kenbrell Thompkins left Sunday’s game with an injury as well. Both are questionable, but Thompkins is a little more likely to play. But Brady has really thrived with the return of Shane Vereen in the screen game and given the Stevan Ridley fumble problems, Vereen has now been incorporated in the running game a bit more as well. Since Vereen came back three weeks ago, here’s who Brady has targeted most:

Player – Week 11, Week 12, Week 13 – Total
1) Rob Gronkowski – 7,10,12 – 29
2) Shane Vereen – 11,11,6 – 28
3) Julian Edelman – 4,11,12 – 27
4) Danny Amendola – 7,6,5 – 18

These four should all see a heavy dose of targets with Dobson out and even more if Thompkins sits as well. In that event, Josh Boyce would likely see a good number of snaps and makes for an intriguing deep sleeper option.

On the ground, it’s pretty cut and dry for New England. I’d like to think that Stevan Ridley hasn’t seen his last days as the featured Patriots tailback but being benched in Week 13 was not promising. The good news here is that as 10 point home favorites, whichever back is on the field for New England should see a ton of looks late in the game with a lead. The issue is that there’s no guarantee as to which back it will be. Last week we saw James Develin and LeGarrette Blount both vulture touchdown runs and you just never know with Belichick.

CLE @ NE – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Indianapolis at Cincinnati

Indianapolis Colts Cincinnati Bengals
Colts Bengals
Sun – 1:00PM ET Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
6 43.5 18.75 -6 43.5 24.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 23.8 14 20 20 Offense 24.3 12 11 18
Defense 22.8 12 17 28 Defense 18.0 5 8 8
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Cincinnati 7 5 9 10 Indianapolis 17 10 25 7
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Hilton 99 8.0 8.3 7.0 Green 131 10.8 6.0 7.0
Whalen 20 3.3 3.0 Sanu 62 5.1 3.5 2.0
Heyward-Bey 59 5.1 4.7 5.0 Jones 53 4.5 2.5 3.0
Fleener 71 5.7 7.7 5.0 Gresham 54 4.8 3.5 1.0

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts offense has been sputtering of late and the struggles of Trent Richardson along with the loss of Reggie Wayne are really starting to catch up with them. T.Y. Hilton has no more than 5 catches and 50 yards receiving over any of his last three games and continues to be completely matchup reliant. Andrew Luck has also struggled and hasn’t posted 20+ fantasy points in any of his last four games. Now they travel to Cincinnati to face one of the NFL’s better defenses and it doesn’t look great for Luck and company. The Bengals defense continues to battle through a number of key injuries and is still ranked fourth on PFF’s pass coverage ratings. Hilton will either see Adam Pacman Jones or Terrance Newman in coverage. Last week, Hilton was moved back to taking a larger percentage of snaps on the left side of the field, after playing each of the four previous games since Wayne went down on the right side. It’s unclear where he’ll start but Jones patrols the right side and Newman on the left. Jones would be a slightly better matchup and he was beaten pretty bad by Keenan Allen in Week 13. Allen was targeted 5 times with Jones in coverage and caught all 5 balls for 70 yards, according to ProFootballFocus. Also worth noting in the Colts passing game were the 8 targets given to LaVon Brazill. He played on 42 out of about 70 offensive snaps and saw 5+ targets for the second consecutive week. He doesn’t have huge upside though and has 3 grabs for 40 yards in both of those games, but with Heyward-Bey struggling greatly he could start to see more and more opportunities. The final piece of the Colts makeshift passing game puzzle is Coby Fleener who again had 50 yards in the Colts Week 13 victory. He saw his targets drop pretty drastically but the one defensive hole I was able to find in Cincy, in terms of Defense vs. Position, was tight ends over the past three weeks. They rank 10th worst in the NFL and Antonio Gates + Ladarius Green were both able to have their way with the Chargers defense in Week 13.

The run game for the Colts is pretty ugly, but at the very least Trent Richardson has been officially demoted to an RB2 role so we know that Donald Brown is going to get the bulk of the touches. Brown saw 14 carries for 54 yards and a score against a soft Titans front seven, but may not have as much success on Sunday. The Bengals have however struggled against pass catching backs and are averaging 7.33 receptions and 47.5 receiving yards allowed to opposing running backs over the last six games. Brown hasn’t played as prominent a role in the Colts passing game since being promoted to the lead back role, but with Indy being 6 point underdogs he could see a boost in his receiving stats this week.

Cincinnati Bengals

Cincy is coming off an ugly 17-10 victory in San Diego last weekend. The biggest thing that stood out in that game was Andy Dalton again making a horrible decision on a deep route to A.J. Green. He essentially just threw the ball as far as he could with no regard for the deep safety and it lead to a fair catch for the Chargers. Mistakes like these have crept back up for Dalton and the QB who averaged over 25 FPPG during a three week span earlier in the year has posted just 12 FPPG over his last two games. He has an elite level matchup this weekend though, as the Colts come into Sunday having allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks since their bye in Week 8.. As if that wasn’t enough, look at the list of quarterbacks they’ve faced in that span:

They haven’t exactly been facing the elite quarterback class in the NFL, and have held none of them to under 15 fantasy points. Similarly, they rank dead last against opposing wide receivers in that five game span. As far as guys Dalton can throw to, A.J. Green seems to be the only option right now and was the only player to see more than 5 targets in Week 13. The WR2 slot is a revolving door right now consisting of Marvin Jones, Andrew Hawkins and Mohamed Sanu.

The Bengals ground game is built around the Law-Firm and rookie phenom Giovani Bernard. Last week, Green-Ellis was able to pick up 4 yard chunks with ease and had his best game of the season with 20 carries for 92 yards and a score. Bernard still got plenty of touches as well, and ended his day with 14 carries but wasn’t able to find pay dirt. It was a bit surprising to see BJGE get back to being this involved, as the snap counts and carries were trending in the opposite direction leading up to Week 13. The better matchup this week will be for Bernard though, as the Colts have been reeling in the passing game and Chris Johnson just burnt them for 6 catches, 32 yards and a score.

IND @ CIN – Daily Fantasy Relevant

DraftStreet accounts for the lowest overall percentage of available salary, while the pairing might not be as worth it on DK this weekend where 2 guys account for 31% of your costs.

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)