NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 7
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Seattle at Arizona
| Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
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| Thurs – 8:25PM ET | Univ. of Phoenix Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -6.5 | 40.5 | 23.5 | 6.5 | 40.5 | 17 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.2 | 8 | 24 | 2 | Offense | 18.5 | 25 | 18 | 24 | |
| Defense | 15.7 | 3 | 2 | 11 | Defense | 21.2 | 12 | 19 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona | 18 | 10 | 2 | 32 | Seattle | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Tate | 39 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 7.0 | Fitzgerald | 53 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 12.0 | |
| Rice | 28 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 | Floyd | 42 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 6.0 | |
| Baldwin | 28 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 4.0 | Roberts | 28 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 4.0 | |
| Miller | 14 | 3.5 | 3.0 | Dray | 14 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | ||
h2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Seahawks won their 11th straight home game last week, despite not playing a great game overall. Other than Marshawn Lynch the Seattle offense was non existent. The defense was great as usual picking off Fitzpatrick twice and only allowing 223 total yards. The Seahawks will now take their 5-1 record on the road to face Arizona on Thursday night.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Watch out for the Thursday night curse. Wilson leads all QBs with 294 rushing yards. Arizona has the 19th ranked pass defense and have allowed a QB to pass for over 250 yards in 5/6 games.
RBs – The Cardinals have the 5th best run defense in football and only allow 3.5 yards per carry. Lynch has had the 2nd toughest RB schedule to date and is ranked 3rd overall at RB. I think he stills finds his yards.
Receiving – The Seahawks WRs will be in tough this week. ARI ranks 2nd overall in FPPG to the WR. According to PFF (Pro Football Focus), the Cards have the #7 (Peterson) and #14 (Mathieu) overall ranked corners in the game. Without knowing what receivers are going to get the targets week to week, I would pass. On the flip side Arizona is allowing 20 FPPG to the TE, which ranks them dead last. Miller could be a sneaky punt.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
The Cardinals are now 3-3 after being dominated by the 49ers in week 6. Carson Palmer threw 2 more INTs giving him 11 in total, and the defense allowed almost 400 total yards of offense. It does not get any easier as they host Seattle on Thursday night.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Seattle has the 2nd best pass defense in football and have only allowed 5 passing TDs all season. Palmer has now thrown 9 INTs in his last 4 games and cannot be trusted. The Seahawks have 9 INTs this season and are only allowing 12.7 FPPG to the QB.
RBs – Mendenhall and Ellington continue to share carries, neither is recommended in this matchup. Seattle has the 4th best fantasy defense against the RBs. If you want to roll the dice Ellington is averaging 8.3 yards per touch.
Receiving – According to PFF the Seahawks have the 3rd best secondary in terms of coverage in the NFL. I don’t see any ARI WR having a good game against the legion of boom. Fitzgerald would be the only one to consider and he is not healthy and will see a lot of Richard Sherman.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Georgia Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 7 | 43 | 18 | -7 | 43 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 12.8 | 31 | 32 | 20 | Offense | 24.4 | 12 | 2 | 26 | |
| Defense | 20.2 | 10 | 16 | 13 | Defense | 26.8 | 25 | 26 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta | 27 | 12 | 29 | 25 | Tampa Bay | 19 | 7 | 15 | 22 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Jackson | 55 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 14.0 | Douglas | 27 | 5.4 | 5.0 | ||
| Williams | 29 | 7.3 | 6.0 | Davis | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Shepard | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Cone | 1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |||
| Stocker | 0.0 | Gonzalez | 46 | 9.4 | 14.0 | |||||
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Bucs fell to 0-5 at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles, although there were some positives in this one for TB. Mike Glennon looked solid and brought Vincent Jackson back to fantasy relevance. However, Doug Martin had 67 rushing yards with zero TDs and continues to be disappointing. They hope to get back WR Mike Williams this week as they travel to Atlanta.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Mike Glennon is attempting 43 passes per game and Atlanta has allowed the 6th most (21.3) fantasy points to QBs.
RBs – Doug Martin is leading the NFL in carries, yet only has 67 yards rushing or less in 3 of his 5 games. Atlanta has the 6th best rushing defense in football. Martin has become increasingly hard to trust.
Receiving – The Falcons have the 26th overall ranked pass defense and the 27th ranked fantasy defense VS WRs. Jackson had 12 targets last week and I expect more of the same this week. If Williams returns he should have some sneaky value against the 7th worst pass coverage team in the NFL. Tim Wright had 9 targets and 7 receptions last week. Glennon seems to like him and Atlanta is ranked 25th in FPPG to the TE with 13.3.
ATLANTA FALCONS
The Falcons are a mess right now. They are in a must win situation home to the Bucs this week, and it appears they will be without both stud WRs Jones and White as well as Jackson and possibly Snelling. Can things get any worse in Atlanta?
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Matt Ryan will be hard pressed to have a big week, possibly missing both his stud WRs. TB is allowing 18 FPPG to the QB.
RBs – Jason Snelling is practicing Tues and looks like he will play. If that is the case, Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers will share carries. Neither are recommended though against a Bucs Team ranked 7th overall in fantasy against the RB. However if Snelling cannot go, Rodgers would see a huge workload and would have great value at his price. Keep an eye on this situation.
Receiving – Douglas becomes the #1 WR for Ryan if White cannot go and I would suggest avoiding him with Revis around. Revis according to PFF is the #2 ranked CB in pass coverage. Tony G should see a ton of targets with all the injuries, and TB is allowing 12 FPPG to the TE ranking 22nd.
New England at NY Jets
| New England Patriots | New York Jets | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -4 | 43.5 | 23.75 | 4 | 43.5 | 19.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.8 | 22 | 19 | 11 | Offense | 17.3 | 29 | 22 | 14 | |
| Defense | 16.2 | 4 | 13 | 24 | Defense | 22.5 | 15 | 12 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| NY Jets | 17 | 2 | 20 | 16 | New England | 6 | 18 | 4 | 17 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Amendola | 27 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 | Hill | 34 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 8.0 | |
| Thompkins | 50 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 6.0 | Kerley | 27 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 7.0 | |
| Edelman | 61 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 11.0 | Gates | 24 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 7.0 | |
| Gronkowski | Winslow | 24 | 4.8 | 5.0 | ||||||
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Stevan Ridley became h3. Fantasy Relevant again with two TDs and Tom Brady threw a game winning TD to Kenbrell Thompkins with 5 seconds left to win a very exciting game. It looked as though the Saints were going to remain undefeated as the Pats WRs continued to drop passes, but they pulled it out, shocking the Saints. Aqib Talib may be the best defensive player in football, as he did the unthinkable, holding Jimmy Graham to zero catches before leaving the game with a hip issue. Danny Amendola also exited the game with a head injury.
Fantasy Relevant
QB -The Jets held Brady in check in week 2 with only 1 TD and 185 passing yards. It looks like Brady could be without Gronk and Amendola in week 7.
RBs – Ridley FINALLY had a big week last week, but it is just so hard to trust any RB in this system. The Jets have the 2nd ranked fantasy defense VS the RB.
Receiving – Julian Edelman and Thompkins should see lots of targets with Gronk and Amendola out. Thompkins has the 3rd most red zone targets at WR. Edelman had 11 targets last week and now has the 4th most targets at WR.
NEW YORK JETS
The Jets and Geno Smith were not able to get much going against the Steelers in week 6. Coming off a big win over the Falcons in week 5, the Jets were terrible from a fantasy perspective last week. They will hope to improve against the Patriots in week 7.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Geno Smith followed up his best performance in week 5 with likely his worst performance to date in week 6. He is lacking talent around him and facing the Pats and Aqib Talib (if healthy) won’t help him.
RBs – With Mike Goodson out for the season it is a two man show with Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory. I imagine Powell will continue to get most of the touches and could be a decent value play. NE has the 24th ranked defense against the rush and are now without Vince Wilfork.
Receiving – It is hard to trust either Stephen Hill or Jeremy Kerley this week. The Patriots have the 6th best pass coverage per PFF and are ranked 4th in FPPG to the WR. Even is Talib cannot go, I don’t see much value here. Jeff Cumberland could be a solid punt option at TE, he has 172 yards and 2 TDs in his last 3 games.
San Diego at Jacksonville
| San Diego Chargers | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | EverBank Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -7.5 | 45.5 | 26.5 | 7.5 | 45.5 | 19 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.0 | 14 | 5 | 19 | Offense | 11.7 | 32 | 25 | 32 | |
| Defense | 23.0 | 17 | 25 | 17 | Defense | 33.0 | 31 | 14 | 32 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville | 24 | 28 | 18 | 26 | San Diego | 30 | 3 | 27 | 14 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Allen | 31 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 12.0 | Blackmon | 29 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 20.0 | |
| Brown | 35 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.0 | Shorts | 63 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 1.0 | |
| Royal | 27 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 0.0 | Sanders | 31 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.0 | |
| Gates | 50 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 8.0 | Harbor | 17 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 3.0 | |
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The Chargers dominated time of possession (38:31-21:29) with long scoring drives of 12, 14 and 16 plays in their huge Monday night win over the Colts. Their offensive line was outstanding and they rushed for over 140 yards. It was a very solid team effort top to bottom. San Diego will look to keep it rolling as they face the Jags in week 7.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Rivers is averaging over 300 YPG and 2+ TDs per game. According to PFF the Jags have the 4th worst pass rush in the NFL. Jacksonville is the 24th ranked fantasy defense VS the QB, allowing 20.4 FPPG.
RBs – Danny Woodhead is leading all RBs in fantasy receiving. Ryan Mathews has 100+ YFS in 2 of his last 3 games. The Jags are the 28th ranked fantasy defense VS the RB allowing 23.4 FPPG.
Receiving – Keenan Allen was targeted 12 times last week and now has 20 receptions, 302 yards and 2 TDs in his last 3 games. Vincent Brown has 41 or less yards in all but one game this season. The Jags are the 11th worst team per PFF in terms of pass coverage. Including his dud Monday night Gates is still averaging 77.7 YPG and just under 8 targets per game. Jacksonville is ranked 26th in fantasy VS the TE, allowing 13.5 FPPG.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jags put up a much better fight in Mile High than anyone expected. Jacksonville was only trailing 21-19 late in the 3rd quarter before losing by 16 and falling to 0-6. It appears as though they also lost Cecil Shorts for at least week 7. Justin Blackmon was a beast with 14 catches and 190 yards receiving. The Jags will fall to 0-7 this week home to the Chargers.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Chad Henne disappointed a lot of fantasy players last week who had him in GPPs. The Chargers have held QBs to 244 yards or less in the last 3 weeks. However I think Henne will have some success this week. He will be throwing a ton and SD is still ranked 30th in fantasy defense VS the QB allowing 22.7 FPPG.
RBs – MJD has looked better of late with 70+ yards in his last two games, but SD shut down the Colts running game last week and are ranked 3rd in FFPG against the RB. The Chargers have also not allowed a RB TD all season.
Receiving – Justin Blackmon is the #2 rated WR in the last 2 weeks. With Shorts out last week he had an insane 20 targets, 4 in the red zone. I expect Shorts to miss this game and Blackmon to be a target machine again. The Chargers are ranked 27th in FPPG against the WR and dead last according to PFF in pass coverage.