NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 7 - Page 2
Houston at Kansas City
| Houston Texans | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Arrowhead Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 6.5 | 40 | 16.75 | -6.5 | 40 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.7 | 26 | 14 | 6 | Offense | 25.3 | 9 | 26 | 12 | |
| Defense | 29.5 | 28 | 1 | 25 | Defense | 10.8 | 1 | 3 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City | 9 | 6 | 11 | 1 | Houston | 8 | 16 | 1 | 15 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Johnson | 65 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 8.0 | Bowe | 35 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.0 | |
| Hopkins | 38 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | Avery | 34 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 4.0 | |
| Martin | 14 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | McCluster | 25 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | |
| Graham | 25 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | McGrath | 22 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | |
HOUSTON TEXANS
Fantasy Relevant
Just when you thought it could not get worse for the Texans, they get embarrassed by the Rams 38-13 in week 6. Houston had their chances but turned the ball over 4 times, including 3 in the red zone. Now they head into Arrowhead with a back-up QB for week 7. Houston we have a problem.
QB – I doubt Schaub plays and you don’t want any part of T.J.Yates against the Chiefs. Per PFF, KC ranks #1 in both pass rush and pass coverage this season.
RBs – Arian Foster should be extremely busy this week against the Chiefs and their 6th best fantasy defense VS the RB. I think Foster will be a solid play due to volume as HOU will likely rely on a heavy running attack.
Receiving – In case you missed it above, per PFF KC ranks #1 in both pass rush and pass coverage this season. Now with Yates at QB, I think we are safe to pass on all Texan receivers including Andre Johnson. I just don’t see the upside.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Fantasy Relevant
The Chiefs defense smothered the Raiders in week 6 with 10 sacks and 3 INTs. Kansas City remains undefeated and now sits at 6-0. Jamaal Charles continued his dominant season with 128 yards and 2 more TDs. They will now face the beat up Texans in week 7.
QB – The Texans have the #1 ranked passing defense in the NFL. Alex Smith has 373 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT in his last 2 games.
RBs – Jamaal Charles is the #1 ranked Fantasy RB. HOU is allowing 4.2 YPC and the 2nd most rushes of 15+ yards.
Receiving – The Texans allow the least FPPG against the WR and are the number 1 ranked pass defense overall. With those two facts and Alex Smith at QB, why look here?
Buffalo at Miami
| Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Sun Life Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 7.5 | 43 | 17.75 | -7.5 | 43 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.7 | 17 | 28 | 3 | Offense | 22.8 | 16 | 15 | 29 | |
| Defense | 26.2 | 23 | 22 | 28 | Defense | 23.4 | 20 | 27 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami | 21 | 30 | 8 | 31 | Buffalo | 22 | 11 | 31 | 2 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Johnson | 7.6 | 4.5 | Wallace | 44 | 8.2 | 11.5 | ||||
| Woods | 46 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 6.0 | Hartline | 41 | 7.2 | 5.5 | ||
| Graham | 22 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 6.0 | Gibson | 34 | 6.4 | 6.5 | ||
| Chandler | 31 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 4.0 | Clay | 31 | 5.8 | 6.0 | ||
BUFFALO BILLS
The Bills played a great game VS the Bengals even though they lost 27-24 in overtime. Thad Lewis was better than expected and the Bills continue to run the ball well. At the end of the day it was the Bills defense that let them down again, allowing nearly 500 yards of total offense from the Bengals. Both Lewis (foot) and Stevie Johnson (back) are expected to play in week 7 at Miami.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Thad Lewis will face the Dolphins and their 27th ranked pass defense. Lewis was solid last week and still only threw for 216 yards, not to mention he is hobbling around with a foot injury. I think you are best to avoid him.
RBs – C.J. Spiller is still bothered by an ankle injury and has only seen 16 snaps in the last 2 weeks. I don’t think he is worth the risk even with Miami’s 30th ranked fantasy defense against the run. Fred Jackson should continue to see an increased workload. Fred Jackson has 8 receptions in his last 2 games. The Dolphins allow 25.5 FPPG to the RB.
Receiving – The Bills WR situation is a mess and Thad Lewis does not help. The Dolphins are allowing the 8th lowest FPPG to WRs. I think you are best to avoid Bills WRs for now, even if Johnson returns. As I have mentioned before, inexperienced QBs like to lean on their TEs. Chandler could be a punt option at TE, he is the 4th ranked TE in the last 4 weeks.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Dolphins are 3-2 and fresh off their bye, and they will face a banged up Bills team in week 7. If Miami plans on making a playoff run they need their offensive line to step it up, Tannehill has been sacked a league high 24 times. If they can do that, the Dolphins could find themselves 4-2 and chasing down the Patriots.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Ryan Tannehill is in great shape this week and will make a nice value play. In the Bills’ past 4 games they are allowing the 6th most FPPG to QBs and 309 passing yard per game.
RBs – Lamar Miller does not have more than 14 rushes or 69 yards in any game this season. Twice he has had less than 15 yards rushing in a game. Daniel Thomas only has 6 total carries in his last 2 games. Nothing to see here.
Receiving – The Bills are ranked 31st in FPPG to WRs and have allowed 10+ points to 9 WRs this season. It is an ideal matchup for Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline. Charles Clay continues to be a solid under the radar TE option. In his last two games he has 9 catches, 94 yards and 2 TDs. He is a good value play this week.
Cincinnati at Detroit
| Cincinnati Bengals | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Ford Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 2.5 | 47 | 22.25 | -2.5 | 47 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.2 | 23 | 16 | 16 | Offense | 27.0 | 6 | 6 | 21 | |
| Defense | 18.5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | Defense | 23.3 | 19 | 21 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit | 12 | 25 | 24 | 12 | Cincinnati | 13 | 9 | 13 | 13 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Green | 70 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 11.0 | Johnson | 48 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 8.0 | |
| Sanu | 32 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 6.0 | Broyles | 8 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | |
| Jones | 20 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 5.0 | Durham | 32 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 13.0 | |
| Gresham | 31 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 4.0 | Pettigrew | 28 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.0 | |
CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Bengals looked like they were in cruise control leading 24-10 in the 4th quarter, until the Bills scored back-to-back TDs forcing overtime before the Bengals pulled it out in OT. Dalton, Green and Bernard all had big fantasy days. At 4-2 the Bengals will head into Detroit for week 7.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Including Dalton’s big week 6, he is only averaging 251 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT per game over his last 3. Against the QB, the Lions are only allowing 15.2 FPPG and have the 7th lowest QB rating at 75.4. Detroit also has 10 interceptions on the season.
RBs – BJGE and Bernard are sharing carries, but Gio has had 17 targets to BGJE’s 1 in the last 3 weeks. Gio is the #9 ranked RB over the last 5 weeks. The Lions allow 5.4 yards per carry, most in the NFL.
Receiving – Detroit has shut down some big name receivers (Marshall, Nelson, Garcon) this year. According to PFF the Lions are ranked 5th in pass coverage and 7th in pass rush. With those numbers and Dalton’s inconsistent results most of the year, I think I will pass on all Bengal receivers not named A.J. Green. I think Green will still find a way to get solid fantasy points. He leads all WRs with 69 targets.
DETROIT LIONS
The Detroit Lions found a win to get a win without a huge contribution from Calvin Johnson, as they beat the Brown 31-17. Detroit had big fantasy games from Stafford (4TDs), Fauria (3TDs) and Bush (135 YFS) and now sit at 4-2 and tied for first with the Bears atop the NFC North.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Matthew Stafford has attempted 35 or more passes in every game, and is averaging just under 300 YPG with 2 TDs. Megatron practiced on Wed which is a great sign for Stafford.
RBs – With Bell nursing a rib injury Bush should see 20+ touches again this week. Cincy has the 10th best rushing defense and has allowed the 9th fewest FPPG to the RB, so it will not be easy for Reggie Bush. However Bush had a huge week last week against a tough Browns defense.
Receiving – The fact that Calvin Johnson practiced on Wed is great news. If he is back to 100% he is the best WR in football. Kris Durham had 13 targets last week and has 21 in his last 2 weeks. He makes for a great value play with or without Megatron. Pettigrew had 4 receptions and Fauria had 3 last week, the difference was Fauria’s were all for TDs. I think we can call this a fluke for now.
Dallas at Philadelphia
| Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Lincoln Financial Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 2.5 | 55 | 26.25 | -2.5 | 55 | 28.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 30.5 | 2 | 11 | 25 | Offense | 27.7 | 4 | 9 | 1 | |
| Defense | 25.3 | 21 | 30 | 14 | Defense | 29.8 | 29 | 31 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia | 29 | 13 | 32 | 9 | Dallas | 32 | 26 | 19 | 30 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Bryant | 54 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | Jackson | 56 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 6.0 | |
| Williams | 21 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | Cooper | 25 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 6.0 | |
| Austin | 25 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | Avant | 35 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | |
| Witten | 48 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 5.0 | Ertz | 17 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 6.0 | |
DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys got a huge win over the Skins last week to go to 3-3. It was an ugly game from a fantasy perspective, Romo and Bryant were extremely disappointing and Murray left the game injured. Dwayne Harris had a huge game on special teams to lead the Cowboys to victory. Dallas also lost DeMarcus Ware with a quad injury.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Tony Romo had a dream matchup last week and did little with it, now he gets a second chance this week against the Eagles’ 31st ranked passing defense. Philly is allowing 315 YPG and 22.4 FPPG to the QB.
RBs – With Demarco Murray and Lance Dunbar both out, Joseph Randle will carry the load against the Eagles. Randle was not that impressive last week and is not highly touted, but he has great value at his price. Philly is allowing 18.6 FPPG to the RB.
Receiving – According to PFF the Eagles have the 4th worst secondary in the NFL and are ranked dead last in FPPG to the WRs. Bryant was a bust last week, but is in line for a huge week VS this secondary. Terrance Williams is the 12th ranked WR in the last 3 weeks and has become a Romo favorite. I would avoid Miles Austin until he gets healthier. The Eagles have actually been solid against the TE, ranking 9th in FPPG. Jason Witten will be fine regardless.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were no match for the Eagles in week 6. The Eagles put up 31 points and all of Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson and even Riley Cooper had big fantasy games. This offense looks better with Foles under center in my opinion. If Foles continues to play well, I think Vick is out of a job. The Eagles can take over 1st place in the NFC East with a week 7 win over Dallas.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Nick Foles was the #2 ranked QB last week against a tough Tampa defense. This weeks he faces the Cowboys and their 32nd ranked fantasy defense VS the QB, allowing 24.4 FPPG.
RBs – The Cowboys are allowing the 2nd most passing yards against the RB and Shady has over 50 yards receiving in the last 2 weeks. Dallas allows 22.4 FPPG to the RB. McCoy should have another big day.
Receiving – Jackson – the #1 fantasy WR – had a 6/64/2 line against Revis last week, who is one of the best CBs in the NFL. He should have no issues against Brandon Carr and company. Jason Avant and Riley Cooper should get more targets with Foles at QB and are in play.