NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 8 - Page 2

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2013-10-24 20:24:11

Buffalo at New Orleans

Buffalo Bills						New Orleans Saints
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		12	50	19				-12	50	31
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.7	16	30	5		Offense	26.8	6	2	22
Defense	25.4	22	21	28		Defense	17.2	4	9	22
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans	7	19	12	3		Buffalo	22	8	31	2
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Johnson		8.5	8.0	13.0		Colston	34	5.7	2.5
Woods	50	7.0	7.7	4.0		Stills	19	3.4	2.5
Graham	24	3.6	4.3	2.0		Moore	11	3.7
Chandler	34	4.9	4.3	3.0		Graham	60	9.8	8.5

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have yet to hold an opponent to under 20 points this season, and have allowed 37, 27 and 21 in the last three weeks. Their defense gets after the QB, ranking 8th in sacks per game, but hasn’t been particularly strong in other facets. They’ve allowed 3 300+ yard passers and opposing QBs have multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season.

Offensively, Thad Lewis has been decent but far from extraordinary. Jackson also continues to dominate snap counts over Spiller (took 58% of snaps compared to Spiller’s 21% in Week 7). The Bills rank 30th in passing yards per game but 5th in rush yards, which could be intriguing against a Saints defense that ranks #22 against the run.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Thaddeus Lewis value comes if this game goes down as Vegas expects it. If the Bills are behind by a lot, expect Lewis to throw in bunches to play catch up. As a cheap QB2, he has some value for GPPs.
• RB – Fred Jackson is the guy to play right now in the Bills rushing offense. Any Bills back should be considered a GPP play only, but as long as he’s taking over 50% of the snaps it looks like Spiller has to be avoided. The Saints rank 19th against RBs.
• WR – Stevie Johnson returned last week and grabbed 6 balls for 71 yards. Robert Woods was an emerging bargain bin threat with E.J. Manuel at the helm but has been targeted a total of 10 times in 2 games with Lewis playing QB.
• TE – Scott Chandler can’t be relied on for more than an occasional big play.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints come off their bye week with some questions about the health of Jimmy Graham. He hasn’t practiced yet this week and his status is VERY murky right now. Their offense went into the bye ranking 6th in points per game, which isn’t surprising as long as Brees is taking the snaps. The Saints have struggled a bit in the red zone though, scoring on just 45% of opportunities. If Graham doesn’t go, the RZ threats are dwindling for Brees which may create some issues.

Defensively, Rob Ryan has the Saints defense playing much better football but Stevan Ridley proved that they’re still fairly soft up front. They rank 22nd against the rush compared to just 9th against the pass.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Brees tapered off a bit leading up to the bye week. After 4 straight 300 yard games to start the year, he failed to hit that mark in each of the last 2 games. He does have multi-TD passes in all but one game this season though, and draws a Bills defense ranking 22nd against opposing QBs.
• RB – Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas could both have big games on PPR sites. The Bills allowed Shane Vereen to 7 catches for 58 yards and Giovani Bernard to 6 catches for 72 yards already this season. Pass catching backs have exploited Buffalo and both are great options for NO.
• WR – Colston limped into the bye, totaling just 3 catches for 26 yards in the 2 games before their week off. He remains an inconsistent option with good upside, but he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1. If Graham sits, I’d expect him to get a few more looks in the red zone.
• TE – Obviously the big question here is whether Graham plays or not. If he plays, he’s a great option but if he can’t go, look for Ben Watson to be a big part of the New Orleans offense.

San Francisco at Jacksonville

San Francisco 49ers						Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun – 1:00PM ET						EverBank Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-17	41	29				17	41	12
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.1	11	31	3		Offense	10.9	32	21	32
Defense	19.3	7	6	18		Defense	31.7	32	14	32
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Jacksonville	24	31	18	27		San Francisco	9	24	10	11
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Boldin	56	8.0	6.7	6.0		Blackmon	38	12.7	12.7	9.0
Williams	22	3.1	1.0	1.0		Shorts	76	10.9	8.0	13.0
Patton	2	0.5				Sanders	30	5.2	2.0
Davis	43	7.2	8.3	8.0		Lewis	3	1.5	3.0	3.0

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers rank in the top third of teams for both offense and defense this season, despite some sophomore hiccups from QB Colin Kaepernick and a few big losses on D. They take the road against Jacksonville as whopping 17 point favorites despite some offensive struggles. They lack a WR2, leaving the receiving weight on the shoulders of Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. WR Mario Manningham MIGHT return this week, which would make for a big upgrade over current WR2 Kyle Williams.

On the other side, the Niners continue to have a strong defense, but have not been as unbeatable as last season’s unit. Last week they let Jake Locker pass for over 300 yards against them and early on had struggled against the run, with Marshawn Lynch, Ahmad Bradshaw and Arian Foster all tallying 90+ rush yards. They actually rank 24th in the league in terms of FPPG-allowed to opposing running backs. Also of note is that the 49ers will travel to London for this one just one week after flying to the east coast to play the Titans. Fatigue might be a factor.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Since Week 1, where Kaep threw for 400 yards, he’s only thrown for 200 yards or more one time in six games. Last week he was able to scramble more though, rushing 11 times for 68 yards and a score. JAX defense is 24th against opposing QBs so the matchup makes some of his other struggles seem less significant.

• RB – Frank Gore has been handed the ball 20 or more times in 3 of the last 4 weeks and has a TD in 4 of 7 games this season. The Jags allow the 2nd most FPPG to opposing backs in the NFL, so Gore should be a high value target in H2H games this weekend.

• WR – Anquan Boldin has disappointed following his monster Week 1 performance. He played better against Tennessee last weekend but still has seen a ton of coverage with no viable WR2 in SanFran. If Manningham is able to return this week, I’d actually bump up Boldin’s value as it should free him up a bit.

• TE – Vernon Davis draws the 27th ranked defense against TE’s and continues to be Kaep’s go to guy. He was targeted 8 more times last week and is a strong play again in Week 8.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are a nightmare on both sides of the ball and come into Week 8 winless. Offensively, the glimmer of hope comes from Chad Henne (who is MUCH better than backup Blaine Gabbert) and wide receiver duo Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon. Still, the Jags rank dead last in scoring and dead last in rushing offense on the season and now face a top-10 defense in San Fran.

Defensively it’s no better for the Jags, although they haven’t allowed a single 300 yard+ passer all season. This is more due to their large deficits late in games, but still an interesting statistic nonetheless. They’ve allowed 2 100+ yard rushers though, and allow the 24th most FPPG to opposing running backs.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Henne has had back-to-back 300+ yard games but hasn’t thrown a TD pass in either. It’s clear that he’ll drop back to pass heavily when the Jags are down big, which is expected again on Sunday. Given how badly Locker gashed San Fran last week, I would actually consider Henne as a QB2 in larger GPPs this weekend.

• RB – The Jags rank dead last in rush offense and MJD doesn’t seem to have anything left.

• WR – Both Shorts and Blackmon are targeted in bulk, but value WR Mike Brown saw 8 targets in Week 7 against San Diego. Earlier in the season, Ace Sanders had some upside/value in the Jags offense, so watch Brown carefully to see if he continues to get looks. As far as Shorts/Blackmon are concerned, the 49ers rank 2nd against WR #1’s and 9th against WR #2’s, so both have difficult matchups.

• TE – Marcedes Lewis returned last week, but doesn’t present much value at TE.

Miami at New England

Miami Dolphins						New England Patriots
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	45.5	19.25				-7	45.5	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.5	17	16	25		Offense	21.7	20	20	13
Defense	23.3	20	25	15		Defense	18.1	5	11	31
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England	8	17	8	15		Miami	13	28	4	31
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Wallace	54	8.5	13.0	10.0		Amendola	27	9.0	6.5
Hartline	52	7.8	9.0	11.0		Thompkins	55	7.7	5.0	5.0
Gibson	42	6.7	6.5	8.0		Edelman	68	9.7	8.3	7.0
Clay	34	5.3	4.5	3.0		Gronkowski	17	17.0	17.0	17.0

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins come into New England with a three game losing streak, following three straight victories to open the year. One of Miami’s biggest issues has been turnovers, as they’re averaging 1.8 per game which is the 8th most in the NFL. They rank middle of the pack in scoring offense and passing offense, but the struggling run game has been a surprise. Lamar Miller continues to split carries almost 50/50 with Daniel Thomas despite indications that Miller would become more featured before their Week 6 bye.

On defense, it’s been a mixed bag for the Dolphins as well. In their first three games, they allowed just over 17 points per game, but in the 3 losses since that number has skyrocketed to 29 points per game. Their pass defense is allowing the 25th most yards per game, but have held opposing QBs to 0 touchdown passes over the last 2 weeks. The entire face of their defense may change this weekend though, as Cameron Wake is expected to play a much larger role against the Patriots. He took just 21 snaps in Week 7, but is rumored to play 40-45 snaps in Week 8. If he’s on the field more, their defense which averages 2.8 sacks per game improves dramatically in the pass rush.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Ryan Tannehill has a TD pass in every game this season, but 5 INT’s in the last 3 games. If Talib can’t go for New England, I’d consider Tannehill. Otherwise he’s an avoid.

• RB – Lamar Miller situation is frustrating because he seems to excel whenever given an opportunity but the Dolphins staff continues to use Thomas heavily. It’s a risk, but the Patriots defense can be exploited on the ground. Just look at the last 3 RB’s, as mentioned above, since Wilfork went down:

Week 5: Gio Bernard 62 yards, BenJarvus Green-Ellis 67 yards
Week 6: Pierre Thomas 51 yards, Khiry Robinson 53 yards
Week 7: Chris Ivory 104 yards, Bilal Powell 24 yards

• WR – If Talib is active, the Patriots weakness is against WR2’s. They rank dead last against WR2’s and struggled against the likes of Mike Williams, Harry Douglas and Jeremy Kerley. Brian Hartline is a great PPR play in tournaments.

• TE – Charles Clay only reception last week came for a score, but he’d been extremely consistent before that. The Pats rank 31st against TE’s and Clay is another good play for Miami.

New England Patriots

The Patriots lost their defensive captain Jerod Mayo for the season last week and with Talib missing due to a hip injury, they were without their best player at every level of the defense. And it showed. Chris Ivory gashed the interior for 100+ yards rushing and Jeremy Kerley ran free on the secondary. This week it looks like Talib should return, but the front-seven remains a major issue without Mayo/Wilfork (both perennial pro-bowlers). They rank 31st in the NFL against the rush and have allowed over 120 rush yards in all 3 games since big Vin Wilfork went down against Atlanta.

Offensively, the Patriots remain out of sync despite the return of Rob Gronkowski. Early on, rapport with the receivers was to blame but as the season continues it’s becoming more and more clear that something isn’t right with Tom Brady. According to ProFootballFocus Brady has been the 4th least accurate QB in the NFL this season. Until he can improve on that, the Patriots targets not named Gronkowski are going to be extremely hit or miss.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – For the first time this season, Brady could have Amendola, Edelman and Gronkowski on the field at the same time. There are no more excuses as his offense should be full steam ahead. The Dolphins are middle of the pack against QBs and this might be the last time I trust him if he can’t put together a solid performance.

• RB – The Dolphins are 28th in FPPG-allowed to opposing running backs and have been torched by backs catching the ball out of the backfield. 5 running backs have caught 4 or more passes against Miami, including the huge 100 yard, 7 catch game from Darren Sproles back in Week 4. Ridley doesn’t present much of a ball-catching threat, but 3rd-down back Brandon Bolden could have a nice weekend (check status though, he hasn’t practiced this week).

• WR – Amendola is practicing again and could return for Sunday’s game. If so, look for him to be the cream of the crop in terms of NE wideouts. Edelman has good PPR value, but is inconsistent in terms of being targeted. As mentioned with Brady, this is the first week all these guys could be on the field so guessing where looks might go will be a challenge.

• TE – Guessing which receivers will be targeted might be tough, but it was clear how badly TB-12 missed Gronkowski in the first 6 weeks of the season. I’ll choose my words carefully and say that he threw the ball at Gronk 18 times in Week 7. I say “at” because many of those were forced into tight coverage. Regardless, he’s a top tight tier end play against any opponent.

Pittsburgh at Oakland

Pittsburgh Steelers						Oakland Raiders
Sun – 4:05PM ET						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	40.5	21.5				2.5	40.5	19
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.8	28	12	27		Offense	17.5	29	31	9
Defense	22.0	13	4	19		Defense	22.0	13	16	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Oakland	20	16	20	12		Pittsburgh	2	23	7	5
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Brown	60	10.0	9.0	7.0		Moore	44	7.3	9.0
Sanders	46	7.7	4.0	2.0		Ford	9	1.5	2.0
Wheaton	6	1.5				Streater	29	4.8	5.0
Miller	23	5.8	5.5	4.0		Rivera	21	3.5	3.0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh walked off with a win against division rival Baltimore last weekend, in their second consecutive game scoring just 19 points AND earning the W. Offensively, they rank 28th in scoring and 27th in rushing yards per game. Roethlisberger has 2 monster games with 350+ passing yards but has posted only 1 multi-TD game. Le’Veon Bell might be the answer at RB for the Steelers, and he’s taken 72% and 79% of snaps over the last 2 weeks.

On defense, the Steelers have stymied almost all opposing fantasy threats. No QB has thrown for over 300 yards and only 1 has thrown multiple touchdowns. Their rush D struggled through the first four weeks but has righted the ship of late, holding both featured backs to under 50 yards rushing since their bye week. Really outside of a disaster against Minnesota, where AP went for 140 and 2 receivers had 100+ yards, they’ve been as strong as any team defensively.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Ben Roethlisberger is in play against a Raiders defense that’s ranked 20th against QB’s. The Steelers are passing the 8th most in the NFL and Roethlisberger has big upside, having thrown for 380 and 400 yards already this season.
• RB – Le’Veon Bell has some serious appeal, coming off a 19 rush, 93 yard performance against a strong Ravens front seven. The Raiders rank middle of the pack against backs and Bell seems like a lock to get 18+ carries.
• WR – Antonio Brown has been great for PPR and Emmanuel Sanders has been boom or bust. Oakland’s pass coverage is 8th worst in the NFL, according to ProFootballFocus, and either option should be considered this weekend. Both will see a slight uptick in targets as well, with Markus Wheaton expected to be out and no real other receiving options for PIT.
• TE – Heath Miller had back to back 6 reception games, but managed just 2 grabs for 17 yards and a score last weekend vs. Baltimore. He’s a decent option and red-zone threat as well.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders come off a bye week at 2-4 and have really struggled offensively. They rank 29th in offense and have 4 games already where they scored under 20 points. They pass on just 55% of downs, which is 26th in the NFL. The biggest positive for Oakland was Darren McFadden until going down with an injury, but he’s expected to be full-steam in Week 8.

Defensively, ProFootballFocus has the Raiders ranked 5th worst in the NFL for overall D. They have allowed monster games to both Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning, but have yet to allow a 100 yard rusher. That may be deceiving though, as 3 teams have combined for over 100 rush yards against them on the season.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Usually his ability to run from the QB position would make him a higher upside play, but given the tough matchup against a Steelers team ranking 2nd against QB’s, I’d avoid Pryor.
• RB – McFadden is an interesting upside play, as he’s proven he’s more than capable of posting big numbers (see Wk2 vs. JAX with 129 rush yards).
• WR – Denarius Moore is hit or miss, but as mentioned in the intro, Oakland passes on just 55% of downs and finding a diamond in the rough against a stout PIT defense is a challenge.
• TE – No real tight end options here. Mychal Rivera is listed 1st on the depth chart but has caught no more than 3 passes in a game all season.

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