NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Eleven - Page 2
Baltimore at Chicago
| Baltimore Ravens | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Soldier Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 2.5 | 46.5 | 22 | -2.5 | 46.5 | 24.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.9 | 21 | 17 | 30 | Offense | 28.8 | 3 | 8 | 15 | |
| Defense | 21.0 | 8 | 18 | 10 | Defense | 27.4 | 27 | 23 | 31 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago | 13 | 25 | 16 | 26 | Baltimore | 18 | 1 | 20 | 20 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Smith | 84 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 14.0 | Marshall | 93 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 12.0 | |
| Brown | 46 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.0 | Jeffery | 85 | 9.3 | 13.5 | 18.0 | |
| Doss | 28 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | Bennett | 22 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3.0 | |
| Clark | 42 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | Bennett | 62 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.0 | |
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens offensive attack ranks 21st in points per game in 2013 because of the struggles of their run game. Their offensive line has struggled, but Ray Rice can no longer deny that he has in fact ‘lost a step’ and isn’t the same back he once was. He was given 18 touches in Week 10 and totaled just 30 yards on the ground. He hasn’t gone over 75 yards rushing all season long and his only value has come from catching the ball out of the backfield. The hardest part about accepting Rice’s struggles this week is that the Ravens will take on Chicago, whose rush defense ranks dead last on ProFootballFocus. Here’s what backs have one against them over the last 4 weeks (since Lance Briggs went down):
- Week 6: Brandon Jacobs – 22 carries, 106 yards, 2 TD
- Week 7: Alfred Morris – 19 carries, 95 yards. Roy Helu – 11 carries, 41 yards, 3 TD
- Week 9: Eddie Lacy – 22 carries, 150 yards, 2 TD. James Starks – 11 carries, 40 yards, 1 TD
- Week 10: Reggie Bush – 14 carries, 105 yards
That is god awful for a front seven that was the scariest in the game a little over a year ago.
Through the air, things should be made easier for Flacco and Torrey Smith with the news that Charles Peanut Tillman won’t play again in the regular season. While he appeared to be a shell of his former self, he still was a good enough defender to limit an opposing WR1. Last week, Flacco clearly realized he wasn’t going to jump start the passing game without force feeding his only above average receiver, so he threw at Smith 14 times which was a season high. I’d expect more of the same in Week 11.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Flacco just hasn’t had the upside to anchor a DFS team so far this season. I like the matchup and the idea that they could be trailing late, but I’m not buying into Flacco as a QB right now.
- RB – Both Rice and Pierce will see good opportunities and if there was a week to roll the dice on one of these two in a GPP, it would be Week 11. The Bears are horrible against the run.
- WR – Really liked seeing the 14 targets to Smith last weekend and think that bodes well for his fantasy value moving forward. I’d rely on him in almost all game formats this weekend, despite his inconsistencies in recent weeks. He still started the year with 5 games of 85+ receiving yards before some recent highs and lows.
- TE – The Bears really struggle against TE’s in the red zone and that could mean some extra looks for Dallas Clark whose only grab in Week 10 was a 1 yard TD catch.
Chicago Bears
With Cutler ruled out for Week 11, there is some clarity in the Bears passing offense. Josh McCown, who has played extremely well so far, will be their starter at home vs. Baltimore. The Ravens defense has been impressive though and hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in each of the last 7 weeks. They have however allowed a passing TD in each of their last 6 games and have let 4 Quarterbacks explode for over 300 yards. It’s tough to say how the tempo of this game will go, but the Bears being 3 point home favorites with a 45+ point line indicates to me that there should be at least a little bit of scoring in this one.
On the ground, Matt Forte had his first dud of the season last week when he totaled just 49 yards and didn’t find the end zone. Much of this was due to facing a Detroit team that is extremely well-versed in facing Forte, whereas this weekend he’ll draw a Ravens defense that doesn’t have much experience against Forte and his skill set. The closest comparison could be last week where the Ravens faced another back who catches a lot of balls out of the backfield in Giovani Bernard. Bernard had 8 receptions for 37 yards and a score. Look for Chicago to work Forte into the passing game in a similar manner.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – McCown’s matchup is mediocre but he does have the weapons to put up big fantasy totals any given week. I’d say he would only fall as a QB2 on a tight salary cap site like DraftStreet this week in GPPs. Yes, that was oddly specific.
- RB – Definitely think Forte does some damage in the passing game for the Bears and can have great value on sites where his price dropped and they award full point PPR. Remember, last week was his first dud of the season and he’s still extremely consistent.
- WR – Baltimore ranks 27th against WR2’s and that opens the door for Alshon Jeffery to have a nice day. They’ll likely key on a red hot Brandon Marshall and Jeffery could see some 1 on 1 coverage to exploit.
- TE – The Ravens are probably softest against TE’s but Martellus Bennett has caught just 9 balls for 70 yards in the last 3 weeks combined, the majority of that with McCown at QB. He’s not as utilized by McCown as he was by Cutler.
San Diego at Miami
| San Diego Chargers | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:10PM ET | Sun Life Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.6 | 16 | 4 | 19 | Offense | 21.4 | 20 | 21 | 25 | |
| Defense | 22.4 | 13 | 28 | 20 | Defense | 23.2 | 14 | 16 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami | 6 | 31 | 5 | 23 | San Diego | 30 | 10 | 29 | 15 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Allen | 54 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 5.0 | Wallace | 79 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 7.0 | |
| Brown | 47 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | Hartline | 71 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 8.0 | |
| Royal | 41 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.0 | Matthews | 30 | 3.4 | 8.0 | 14.0 | |
| Gates | 74 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 8.0 | Clay | 53 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 8.0 | |
San Diego Chargers
The Chargers comeback fell just short as they tried to do to Peyton Manning what Peyton Manning so famously did to them on MNF in 2012. For San Diego it starts with Philip Rivers who is a hot commodity in DFS right now. But that excitement might need to be toned back a bit as Rivers has really been a bit of a disappointment, fantasy wise, since Week 6. He opened the season with 4 20+ FP games in his first 5, but since then he has topped 20 fantasy points just once. He’s also thrown for 300+ yards just once in those 4 games and had multiple TDs just once in that set (same game). To complicate matters more, he’s faced the Colts, Jaguars, Redskins and Broncos in that span, all of whom rank in the bottom half of the NFL for defense vs. Quarterbacks.
Moving onto the rushing game for San Diego, the two-headed monster of Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead has been pretty solid all season. This week they’ll draw a Dolphins defense that has been obliterated in all facets of opponent’s rushing games. They’ve struggled with pass catching backs like Woodhead, and have been weak up the middle which will benefit Mathews. Mike James had 41 rush yards in the first series last week before leaving with an injury, and then Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey combined for over 100 yards and a score.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – For me the Rivers play comes down to the status of Dolphins CB Dimitri Patterson. For some reason, I’ve found myself watching a number of Dolphin games this season and the differences in their secondary are black and white when Patterson is on the field. He sat last week and Glennon was able to move the ball efficiently to his 2nd and 3rd receiving options. If he sits again, I think Rivers can do the same.
- RB – Both Mathews and Woodhead are great plays this weekend. Woodhead is probably a bit more consistent than Mathews but both can be used in most formats if reasonably priced.
- WR – Miami ranks 7th against WR1s and 25th against WR2s which goes back to the status of CB2 Dimitri Patterson. When he’s out, WR2’s can get free against the Dolphins which would make Vincent Brown an intriguing upside play.
- TE – The Dolphins defense vs. position rank against TE’s stems from some early struggles against Jordan Cameron, Jimmy Graham and Coby Fleener. They haven’t allowed a TE over 35 yards in each of the last 4 games and I think Gates might be a GPP only type play this weekend, with a matchup that looks better on paper than it will be in reality.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins will take the short journey home following Monday night’s embarrassing loss to the Buccaneers and try to regroup before their playoff hopes disappear. The team continues to be marred by controversy but it was the loss of physical talent on Monday that was their achilles heel. They totaled four rushing yards, as a team. That’s embarrassing for a team that at one point was picked to take down the AFC East this season by a number of people. They’ll have to right that ship immediately, which won’t be easy with Daniel Thomas status in doubt for this weekend. If Thomas sits, Lamar Miller will see the bulk of the workload and his value skyrockets, even with the struggling O-line (who lost another member for the year when Will Yeatman went down).
In the passing game, the O-line continues as the topic of discussion because Ryan Tannehill just doesn’t have any time to find his wideouts. The one bright spot for the Fins in Week 10 was Rishard Matthews who exploded for 11 catches, 110 yards and 2 scores. It’s unlikely we see that type of production again but Tannehill may have found his red zone replacement for Brandon Gibson. Before Gibson went down, he had snagged 3 TDs in 2 weeks. Matthews outburst was also due to Revis Island eliminating and embarrassing Mike Wallace, but this week both he and Brian Hartline will have some easier sledding against a Chargers defense allowing the 4th most passing yards per game and that has allowed a 100+ yard receiver in three consecutive games.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Ryan Tannehill ceiling has actually been relatively low all season and his consistency has been strong. He’s never scored less than 13 fantasy points, but has yet to post more than 16.5. I think that small window makes him an avoid especially given the offensive line situation.
- RB – I like Miller a bit more if Thomas sits but the matchup isn’t all that strong and that offensive line just looked so awful last weekend vs. Tampa that I can’t put much faith into it.
- WR – Matthews is an intriguing play considering he posted a 40 fantasy point game with DK scoring last weekend and the Chargers rank in the bottom 5 in the NFL vs. WR1’s, WR2’s and WR3’s. This also opens the door for Hartline and Wallace to have nice days. For tournaments, I’d lean towards Wallace on breaking out again following a couple of bad performances. He’s a matchup play, meaning he can be shut down by a good defense but can post huge numbers against a bad one.
- TE – Charles Clay has fallen out of the fantasy spectrum since Week 5. He has 12 catches for 80 total yards and 0 scores over the last 3 weeks.
Arizona at Jacksonville
| Arizona Cardinals | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | EverBank Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -6.5 | 41 | 23.75 | 6.5 | 41 | 17.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.8 | 22 | 19 | 24 | Offense | 12.8 | 32 | 22 | 31 | |
| Defense | 22.0 | 12 | 20 | 3 | Defense | 32.3 | 32 | 13 | 32 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville | 29 | 27 | 13 | 31 | Arizona | 16 | 3 | 8 | 32 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Fitzgerald | 71 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 6.0 | Shorts | 90 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | |
| Floyd | 57 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | Sanders | 32 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
| Roberts | 46 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 8.0 | Brown | 27 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | |
| Housler | 25 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 5.0 | Lewis | 12 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 6.0 | |
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals strung together their 2nd consecutive win last weekend against Houston and now head to Jacksonville to take on a Jaguars team partying hard after their first win of the season. The story for the Cardinals this season starts with head coach Bruce Arians uncomfortable obsession with Rashard Mendenhall. Maybe it was the 12 yard run that Mendenhall ‘broke’ last week (his longest rush of the season) that inspired all this confidence from Arians. Maybe it was the fumble while the Cardinals were trying to run out the clock. Regardless, Arians is an absolute nightmare for fantasy value as he pretends like Andre Ellington needs to be on a touch count in an effort to get his buddy Rashard more ineffective touches. Ok now that I’ve ranted, we can get to my point which is that as long as this timeshare is happening, it is going to be difficult to find value in either of them. The matchup is prime against a Jags defense that ranks 27th in FPPG-allowed to opposing running backs, but the lack of touches for Ellington probably drops him to a GPP play only this weekend.
That Jags defense isn’t much better against the pass, where they rank 29th against quarterbacks and 22nd in pass coverage on ProFootballFocus. It’s a matchup to exploit for Carson Palmer who has multiple touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games. The Cardinals have been a pass-first team primarily this year, throwing on 60+% of downs which ranks 10th most in the NFL. Their receiving weapons consist of a number of inconsistent options, but last week Andre Roberts was targeted 8 times and caught 5 balls for 72 yards and a score. It’s also worth noting that Paul Posluzny, likely the Jaguars best defensive player, hasn’t practiced all week and looks very unlikely to play this weekend which should open up even more space for the Cards.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Palmer has one of the best matchups of any quarterback this season but he has an INT in every game this season and hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards since Week One. I’d consider him as a QB2 in GPP’s, but don’t know if he can produce enough to anchor your team as the only QB.
- RB – If Arians gave Ellington more touches, he’d be a near must play this weekend. Even with Arians in his way, Ellington should still be able to produce this weekend in both the running and passing games. He’s an option in tournament formats because of his big play ability.
- WR – The Arizona WRs are confusing but it’s quite possible at least one of them has a big day on Sunday. Fitzgerald is likely the safest bet and Andre Roberts was a favorite target of Palmer early in the year and after last week he might be seeing an increased role in the offense.
- TE – Housler may have the occasional touchdown, but he doesn’t produce with consistency and his ceiling is relatively low. For those reasons, he should be avoided.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Looking at the matchup in the passing game for JAX, the Cardinals have been vulnerable at times to the big game. They’ve allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 3 of their last 4 games and quarterbacks are averaging 19.5 FPPG in that span. Patrick Peterson is still one of the league’s better corners but has been exposed a bit of late by the likes of more physical WR’s Harry Douglas and Andre Johnson. He should blanket Cecil Shorts all day, but Shorts is far from a physical wideout and Peterson should have an easy time shutting him down. The biggest weakness of the Arizona secondary, and defense, has come in stopping tight ends. They rank dead last in the NFL in FPPG-allowed to opposing tight ends and Marcedes Lewis could be in for a nice day as an upside/value play.
On the ground, the struggles of MJD this season have been well documented. But what may go unnoticed is that his price tag continues to plummet and while his upside has been severed this year, he’s found a way to contribute over the past two games. He has 15 fantasy points in each despite running behind a Jaguars offensive line that ranks dead last in rush blocking on PFF.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Chad Henne is only in play as a low-end option on 2 quarterback sites.
- RB – I actually like MJD with his PPR-ability, especially on a site like DraftStreet where his price went down about $1500 this week. The ARI defense ranks 3rd against running backs but his value has come in the passing game in recent weeks.
- WR – Avoid Cecil Shorts this weekend with Peterson likely to blanket him, but that may open the door for Mike Brown who has been targeted 18 times over the last 3 games.
- TE – Marcedes Lewis has the best matchup for a tight end this weekend and was targeted 6 times in Week 10. Expect Jacksonville to try and incorporate him more and more as he gets healthier and he could definitely find the end zone in this one.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
| Atlanta Falcons | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Raymond James Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -1 | 42.5 | 21.75 | 1 | 42.5 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.7 | 23 | 6 | 32 | Offense | 16.2 | 31 | 30 | 14 | |
| Defense | 27.9 | 29 | 25 | 27 | Defense | 23.2 | 14 | 14 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay | 26 | 8 | 18 | 14 | Atlanta | 28 | 22 | 27 | 19 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| White | 27 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 4.0 | Jackson | 102 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 8.0 | |
| Douglas | 65 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 8.0 | Underwood | 16 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 5.0 | |
| Davis | 12 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | Owusu | 7 | 3.5 | |||
| Gonzalez | 69 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 5.0 | Wright | |||||
Atlanta Falcons
In a matchup of two teams that just want this season to end, we’ll start with the Falcons traveling to Tampa. The Falcons have lost three in a row and have scored just 33 points in those three games. They continue to throw the ball early and often, with Ryan leading the NFL in pass play percentage at over 70% of their plays coming through the air. This weekend he’ll face a Buccs secondary that has some good players but is still allowing big fantasy numbers to opposing QBs. They’ve allowed 2 or more passing touchdowns in five consecutive games. These two teams also met earlier in the year and Ryan threw for 273 yards and 3 touchdowns. That game was the emergence of Harry Douglas who broke out for 7 catches, 149 yards and a score. With Roddy White now back in the mix, Douglas may be the forgotten man in daily fantasy but he’s torched this team once before and was still targeted a team high 8 times in Week 10.
The Falcons rushing attack is pretty much non-existent at this point. As referenced above, Atlanta likes to pass a lot, usually due to being down by a lot, and that has lead to just 121 total rushing yards over their last three games. That’s almost as bad as the 4 rush yards that Tampa held Miami to last weekend. Combine the two and it’s unlikely you see much out of this rush game.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Matty Ice may have lost his favorite target but the Buccs have really struggled against QBs and Ryan makes for an intriguing GPP option this weekend.
- RB – Avoiding this running game until the Falcons are willing to commit to it more.
- WR – Both Douglas and White are questionable to play this weekend so this situation is going to be pretty fluid based on injuries. If both sit, then Drew Davis becomes an instant value play. If one sits, look for the other to be covered by Revis who is finally being unleashed by Schiano in some man coverage. And if both play, I like Douglas a lot in the matchup.
- TE – Tony Gonzalez should play this weekend but he really looks like a shell of his former self and I’d avoid until he looks healthier.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Now we have the other team to earn their first win of 2013 in Week 10. Tampa took care of business at home against MIA by running the ball down the Dolphins throat. Mike James ran for 41 yards on the first series before breaking his ankle and he’ll now be out for the remainder of the year. Both Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey stepped in and performed well for Tampa which lead to Coach Schiano indicating that the RB situation this week will be based on a ‘hot-hand’ basis. While that’s likely true, Leonard was given 20 touches in Week 10 and is probably the better of the two backs.
In the air, Glennon and company have a juicy matchup against a Falcons team ranking 28th in FPPG-allowed to quarterbacks. PFF has them as the 6th worst defense in pass coverage as well as 6th worst in pass rush this season. In other words, they’re easily exploitable. Tampa is now down to its 3rd and 4th string running backs which should mean a healthy dose of Glennon and the passing game.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Love Glennon as a GPP gamble this week in a game that could be a little more uptempo than the 43 point over/under indicates. He still has one of the best WRs in the game in Vincent Jackson and showed the ability to look off Jackson and throw to WR2 Tiquan Underwood against Miami when necessary. He’s improving every week and this is a perfect place for him to break out.
- RB – Both Leonard and Rainey are in play as value options, but I’d lean towards Leonard as the better bet for a big game. He has high PPR potential and caught 10 balls in Weeks 8 and 9.
- WR – Vincent Jackson may fly under the radar this week and it’s a perfect place to take a shot on him. His price has fallen off on most sites and his matchup is as good as any.
- TE – Tim Wright was barely involved in the Monday night game after being the trendy TE pick in Week 10. Still, the Buccs are low on receiving threats and Wright has shown some decent upside in recent weeks so it might be smart to look past last week’s dud.