NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week One
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Baltimore at Denver
| Baltimore Ravens | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
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| Thurs – 8:30PM ET | Mile High Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 7.5 | 48 | 20.25 | -7.5 | 48 | 27.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Off. | 24.9 | 10 | 15 | 11 | Off. | 30.1 | 2 | 5 | 16 | |
| Def. | 21.5 | 12 | 17 | 20 | Def. | 18.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | |
| Flacco | 15.31 | 13.89 | 9 | 14.76 | Manning | 20.12 | 20.29 | 5 | 13.66 | |
| Rice | 15.79 | 10.30 | 5 | 16.18 | Ball | 19 | 20.32 | |||
| Smith | 9.93 | 6.27 | 2 | 22.98 | Thomas | 15.28 | 15.23 | 12 | 27.40 | |
| Dickson | 2.54 | 5.40 | 31 | 12.73 | Tamme | 5.84 | 3.23 | 1 | 7.98 | |
Denver
- The Broncos take on the Ravens this week who have a lot of new defensive players. While it will be hard to use last year’s defensive rankings as a guide, we will certainly try.
- Peyton Manning looks to be in for another monster season, especially with the addition of Welker. He is a good Week 1 option, but both Drew Brees and Tom Brady have better matchups.
- The RB situation in Denver is a bit cloudy right now, Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman are expecting to split the carries which isn’t good for either’s fantasy outlook.
- I’m not sure if there are going to be enough passes to go around for all of these receivers, but that’s certainly a good problem to have. I think Manning is going to want to get Wes Welker involved early and work Demaryius Thomas down the field. Eric Decker is most likely the odd man out this week.
Baltimore
- The Ravens are fresh off of giving SB winning quarterback Joe Flacco a monster contract. Talk about good timing. Even though Flacco is getting paid with the best of them, he is going to have trouble cracking the top 10 fantasy quarterback list. I don’t love the Week 1 matchup.
- The Broncos were very good against the run last season, but I’m not too concerned with this matchup for Ray Rice. Rice can catch the ball out of the backfield and is a great player in the redzone. If you can get Rice in that middle tier price range, he makes a good Week 1 play.
- With Anquan Boldin gone, Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones are the top two receivers for the Ravens. While both of these receivers are good deep threats, they both benefit from that guy that can go across the middle. I’m not a huge fan of either this week.
- The position that I do think carries a lot of value this week for the Ravens is the TE position. Dennis Pitta is out with an injury so Ed Dickson should be in for a good year. The Broncos were 31st against opposing TE’s last year and Dickson should have a good week – that is unless Move TE Dallas Clark cuts too far into his targets.
New England at Buffalo
New England at Buffalo
| New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Ralph Wilson Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -9.5 | 50 | 29.75 | 9.5 | 50 | 20.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Off. | 34.8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | Off. | 21.5 | 21 | 25 | 6 | |
| Def. | 20.7 | 9 | 29 | 9 | Def. | 27.2 | 26 | 10 | 31 | |
| Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | |
| Brady | 21.77 | 20.95 | 27 | 19.07 | Manuel | 23 | 18.06 | |||
| Ridley | 12.65 | 9.37 | 31 | 25.11 | Spiller | 14.61 | 18.33 | 8 | 18.25 | |
| Amendola | 10.45 | 7.00 | 18 | 27.83 | Johnson | 11.13 | 13.33 | 24 | 30.12 | |
| Sudfeld | 9 | 8.88 | Chandler | 7.51 | 5.65 | 29 | 11.82 | |||
Buffalo
- EJ Manuel is making his first career start this week, at least he is if he is healthy enough. While the matchup against the Patriots is above average, I just don’t know if I want to take a banged up rookie QB against the Pats.
- C.J. Spiller is one of the most explosive backs in the league and as long as he gets the carries, he is going to produce. I love the matchup against the Pats this week, but I am a bit concerned that this will turn into a blowout and the Bills will end up throwing the ball to try to get back in the game. But even then, Spiller is good catching the ball out of the backfield.
- Without any idea of how Manuel is going to play, it’s hard to take a WR on the Bills this week. Stevie Johnson is already talking smack to the Patriots players (well at least he thought it was a Patriots player). I don’t think he is going to be able to back up that talk.
New England
- Tom Brady seems to have a chip on his shoulder. OK, he always seems to have a chip on his shoulder, but even more so this year. He’s going to be without his 4 favorite targets from last season: Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, and Lloyd. With any other team that would make me think his fantasy outlook isn’t great, but I think Brady is going to want to come out and stick it to everyone. The Pats are not scared of running up the score either. I think Brady tops 350 yards and 3 TD’s this week.
- This game should turn into a blowout, or at least a good beating. That usually bodes well for the running back of the team doing the damage. Stevan Ridley should get a bunch of touches against the 31st ranked rushing defense of the Bills last season. Also look for Shane Vereen is going to be a big part of the Pats offense with no Hernandez, he is a great sleeper.
- There is value to be had with the Pats receiving core this week. Kenbrell Thompkins looked great in the preseason and is listed as the number 2 WR. He is basically minimum salary on all sites across the board and is worth a shot. Danny Amendola also looks like a good play against this bad Bills secondary.
- Zach Sudfeld, remember that name when you are making your teams this weekend. Sudfeld is Brady’s TE until Gronk gets back and we all know how much Brady loves hit TE’s. If you aren’t taking Graham this week, I think Sudfeld should be your guy.
Cincinnati at Chicago
| Cincinnati Bengals | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Soldier Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 3 | 41.5 | 19.25 | -3 | 41.5 | 22.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Off. | 24.4 | 12 | 17 | 18 | Off. | 23.4 | 16 | 29 | 10 | |
| Def. | 20.0 | 8 | 7 | 12 | Def. | 17.3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | |
| Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | |
| Dalton | 16.67 | 9.84 | 4 | 13.01 | Cutler | 13.24 | 12.37 | 6 | 13.76 | |
| Bernard | 3 | 15.52 | Forte | 13.29 | 17.07 | 18 | 20.30 | |||
| Green | 15.71 | 10.97 | 11 | 26.17 | Marshall | 17.23 | 12.30 | 3 | 23.45 | |
| Gresham | 8.36 | 4.87 | 13 | 9.29 | Bennett | 7.51 | 2.90 | 19 | 9.94 | |
Chicago
- I never really know where to rank Jay Cutler when you compare him to other QB’s. He has a ton of talent, but he always seems to underwhelm and he plays on a team that likes to run the ball and play defense. I think he will be able to spread the ball around more this year, but I don’t love this week’s matchup against the Bengals who were ranked 6th against the pass last season.
- Matt Forte has looked good in the preseason and is facing a Bengals defense that ranked 18th against the run last season. The Bears are small favorites in this one and if they get ahead, they will keep pounding Forte. I don’t think many people will pick him this week, so he could be a nice sleeper.
- Brandon Marshall is Cutler’s favorite target, we all know that. The Bengals have a good secondary though and will likely put their focus on stopping Marshall. I’m looking at Alshon Jeffery in this one, the Bears say that he has improved dramatically over last season and he has great big play potential.
- When I heard that the Bears got Martellus Bennett, I thought that him and Cutler would immediately develop a nice chemistry, but in 3 preseason games he only has one catch. Take a wait and see approach here.
Cincinnati
- Andy Dalton had a great season last year, I guess it doesn’t hurt when you have a guy like A.J. Green to throw it too. The Bears have a very good pass defense though, one that ranked 4th last season. There are much better options available this week.
- Benjarvus Green-Ellis is listed as the starter, but I expect Giovani Bernard to make a push and to take away some of his carries. Split RB scenarios are never good for fantasy.
- A.J. Green is a receiver that you don’t want to leave off of your GPP teams. I’m not crazy about the matchup, but Green can put up some great numbers and he has shown that he can do it against tough opponents.
Miami at Cleveland
| Miami Dolphins | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | FirstEnergy Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 0 | 41.5 | 20.75 | 0 | 41.5 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Off. | 18.0 | 27 | 26 | 17 | Off. | 18.9 | 24 | 19 | 24 | |
| Def. | 19.8 | 7 | 27 | 13 | Def. | 23.0 | 19 | 25 | 18 | |
| Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | |
| Tannehill | 12.14 | 15.60 | 20 | 17.56 | Weeden | 12.23 | 8.61 | 15 | 16.53 | |
| Miller | 2.96 | 4.77 | 25 | 22.03 | Richardson | 15.28 | 12.50 | 11 | 19.54 | |
| Wallace | 10.82 | 6.60 | 29 | 32.54 | Little | 7.29 | 12.00 | 15 | 27.73 | |
| Clay | 8 | 8.66 | Cameron | 2.76 | 4.90 | 14 | 9.38 | |||
Cleveland
- Brandon Weeden really played well in the first two preseason games and has Browns’ fans clinging on to a glimmer of hope. I don’t really think he is going to be a long-term option at QB, but there are always surprises in the NFL. This week he takes on a Dolphins defense that was average against the pass last season. Weeden makes a decent GPP play, but you need a QB you can rely on in H2H’s and 50/50’s.
- Trent Richardson is one of the few backs in the league that has the position all to himself. Most teams are leaning towards either two RB’s or having a third-down back, but the Browns are all in on Richardson. That is great for his fantasy value. I think he should be considered a top back this week against Miami.
- The Browns best wideout Josh Gordon is suspended for the first two weeks of the season, so give a slight bump to both Greg Little and Davone Bess this week as they could see a couple of extra targets.
- Jordan Cameron is a young TE that has some upside. The Browns hired Chudzinksi who has always loved his TE’s, Gates, Olsen, and Winslow to name a few. Expectations are high for Cameron, but I would rather have Sudfeld for the price.
Miami
- Ryan Tannehill enters his sophomore season after a decent rookie season. He has a great matchup Week 1 against the awful Browns defense who ranked in the bottom third of the league against QB’s, RB’s, and WR’s last season. He is a decent option on multi-QB sites if his salary is cheap enough.
- Lamar Miller is expected to be the workhorse back as the season progresses, but right now it sounds like the Dolphins are going to split the carries between Miller and Thomas. I’m going to wait on Miller.
- The addition of Mike Wallace should help both Ryan Tannehill and Brian Hartline. It will give Tannehill a true number 1 receiver and it will take some of the defensive pressure off of Hartline.