NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week One - Page 4

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-05 21:06:48

Arizona at St. Louis

Arizona Cardinals						St. Louis Rams
Sun – 4:25PM ET						Edward Jones Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	41	18.25				-4.5	41	22.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	15.6	31	28	32		Off.	18.7	25	18	19
Def.	22.3	17	5	28		Def.	21.8	14	15	15
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Palmer	15.89	4.46	17	16.69		Bradford	15.24	19.13	3	12.76
Mendenhall	5.48	4.00	21	20.90		Richardson	4.61	2.60	20	20.60
Fitzgerald	8.71	7.20	7	24.60		Austin			10	25.83
Housler	4.28	1.15	22	10.32		Cook	7.41		4	8.47

St. Louis

• The Rams and Cardinals just doesn’t have the same buzz as a game like the Saints and Falcons. But hey, if you take a player or two from this game, it may be even more important than those other games. A lot of people are expecting a better season out of the Rams and that all starts with QB Sam Bradford. He has some new weapons this season, but draws a tough Week 1 matchup.
• Daryl Richardson is one of my favorite Bargain Bin Baller’s this week. His price tag is very low on sites across the board and he is now the Rams starting RB. He should see between 15-20 touches and I think he will have a decent game.
• Tavon Austin is going to be an exciting player to watch, but Week 1 all I am going to be doing is watching. I’m going to wait and see how they use him before I throw him into my lineups.

Arizona

• Carson Palmer is a big step up for the Cardinals. He is a guy that has a ton of experience and can really help that team produce more consistent results offensively. He did turn the ball over a lot last season, but hopefully he can reign that in a bit this year. The Rams were below average against the pass and I think Palmer starts off on the right foot.
• Rashard Mendenhall is now the starter for the Cardinals, it’s crazy how many players switch teams each year. Mendenhall has some good backups behind him, so I’m going to wait a week or two before pulling the trigger on Mendenhall.
• The happiest guy in Arizona has to be Larry Fitzgerald. He has had to struggle through bad QB after bad QB. While Palmer isn’t a Brady or Manning, he is a big improvement. I think Fitz is in for a big year and I think he should be taken Week 1 if the price is right. I’m telling you, expect big things from Fitz.

NY Giants at Dallas

New York Giants						Dallas Cowboys
Sun – 8:30PM ET						AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	48.5	22.75				-3	48.5	25.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	26.8	6	12	14		Off.	23.5	15	3	31
Def.	21.5	12	28	25		Def.	25.0	24	19	22
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Manning	15.50	14.52	14	16.27		Romo	18.63	23.20	24	18.32
Wilson	4.33	10.10	26	22.30		Murray	12.89	11.97	13	19.69
Nicks	8.75	1.83	13	27.42		Bryant	15.86	20.63	23	30.06
Myers	9.01	4.10	21	10.22		Witten	11.06	12.30	16	9.62

Dallas

• When the Cowboys and Giants get together, it is always a fun game to watch. These games usually turn into shootouts which is what we like to see. Tony Romo averaged over 370 yards and 2 TD’s in the two games against the Giants last season. I like Romo as a contrarian play this week, especially in the big tournaments. And didn’t you hear? Romo has found a secret change in his delivery!
• DeMarco Murray is a great running back when healthy and right now he is healthy. The Giants were pretty average against the run last season.
• If Tony Romo is going to throw for 370 yards against the Giants again, that’s great news for the receiving core. Romo tends to find a favorite for a game and then stick with him throughout. Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, and Miles Austin are all good plays.

New York Giants

• Eli Manning didn’t have as much success in these division rival games last season. He only average 200 yards per game and threw a combined 1 TD. He really ended the season in a slump so it will be interesting to see how he starts the season.
• David Wilson is a running back that you should be targeting a lot this week. With Andre Brown out, Wilson is going to get a ton of carries and the Giants have said that he will get all of the goal line carries as well so you won’t have to worry about someone vulturing his TD’s. He is a great play this week.
• When Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are both healthy, it kind of ruins both of their value. Manning isn’t usually a QB that racks up huge numbers. I would maybe take a shot on one of these two, but don’t play both.

Philadelphia at Washington

Philadelphia Eagles						Washington Redskins
Mon – 7:10PM ET						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	51.5	24.25				-3	51.5	27.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	17.5	29	13	13		Off.	27.2	4	20	1
Def.	27.8	29	9	23		Def.	24.2	21	30	5
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Vick	16.17	13.38	28	19.20		Griffin III	21.50	15.81	30	19.90
McCoy	14.36	14.90	9	18.80		Morris	15.51	26.60	14	19.85
Jackson	9.44		30	33.49		Garcon	11.02	9.33	22	29.69
Ertz			32	13.59		Davis	6.37		10	8.90

Washington

• Robert Griffin III aka RG3 is making his first start since that nasty knee injury in the playoff last year. I think the Skins will try to ease him in and that really limits his value. Wait a week or two before taking him.
• Alfred Morris had a great season last year and is one of my favorite RB’s week 1. Not only does he have a good matchup against the Eagles who were average against the run, but he should get some extra carries this week while the Skins ease RG3 back into things.
• Pierre Garcon has big play potential, but I’m just not seeing it this week.

Philadelphia

• Michael Vick looked really good in the new offense this preseason. Most articles that you read have Vick ranked in the bottom half of the league which may be a correct season long ranking, but week to week I think Vick should be ranked higher. His salary is very affordable on a few sites and I think he makes a good GPP play.
• Lesean McCoy looks healthy to start the season and should really excel in this new offense. The Redskins are a pretty average defense and I think McCoy will look like his old self in this one.
• Desean Jackson has been a huge disappointment the last few seasons, but he always carries that big upside thanks to his big play ability.

Houston at San Diego

Houston Texans						San Diego Chargers
Mon – 10:20PM ET						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3.5	44	23.75				3.5	44	20.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	26.0	8	11	8		Off.	21.9	20	24	27
Def.	20.7	9	16	7		Def.	21.9	16	18	6
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Schaub	14.71	10.15	19	17.52		Rivers	13.95	11.33	16	16.56
Foster	17.63	12.90	10	19.47		Mathews	9.78	4.50	2	15.44
Johnson	14.99	19.97	20	28.54		Brown			21	29.06
Daniels	9.24	4.80	7	8.59		Gates	8.02	10.33	26	11.15

San Diego

• This is another game where the Vegas line looks a bit fishy. The Chargers are not projected to be very good this season and they are only 3.5 point underdogs. Phillip Rivers just hasn’t put up great numbers over the last two seasons and faces a really tough Texans defense.
• Ryan Mathews has another opportunity to let us all down. He has not lived up to expectations and while he could certainly change that this season, I don’t think he will against the Texans.
• When Malcom Floyd is your top WR, you know there is a problem. If you are going to take anyone from the Chargers, make it Antonio Gates.

Houston

• Matt Schaub has a great matchup against the Chargers who were ranked 19th against opposing QB’s this season. I expect that number to drop even further this year. If you want to save some money on your QB, Schaub isn’t a bad option, especially with the Texans limiting Foster’s carries.
• Like I said, the Texans are going to limit Foster’s carries, so don’t take him Week 1. However, this does give Ben Tate a good bump. He is dirt cheap and could see anywhere between 10-15 touches.
• Andre Johnson is healthy and a healthy Johnson is a scary one. I could see him beating this Chargers secondary deep a time or two.